THE SETUP

Niemo channelling himself into Lou Holtz: “Remember, my Hokie brothers and sisters, this game is not about the fact that ‘duke’, or ‘virginia’, or ‘unc’ isn’t on the opponents’ uniforms. This game is about the fact that ‘Hokies’ is on the front of our uniforms. So be there, be loud, and be the difference. On my signal, unleash hell!!!”

The Opposing View: Q&A with fsurules.com

• All-Time Series: fsu 22-16
• At VT: VT 10-6; 1-0 in ACC play
• Since Joining the ACC: fsu 3-1
• Last Meeting: fsu 82, VT 73

Virginia Tech is flying high (hopefully not on Tussin) after an 81-73 OT win at boston college Saturday (Game Film). The Hokies welcome Jeff Allen back to the lineup after serving a two-game suspension for bumping an official at georgia tech. All J.T. Thompson did in Allen’s absence was average 13.5 points and 10 rebounds. Expect J.T. to continue to get about 20 minutes, while Cheick Diakite’s minutes might go down.

On Tuesday, Tech will welcome a team that has owned VT of late, the f$u seminoles. The noles are 3-1 in ACC play against the Hokies, and fsu has won 12 of the last 14 meetings with VT dating back to the old Metro conference days. However, VT won the only meeting in the ‘Burg since joining the ACC, a 72-61 win in 2006. Also, fsu has lost four of their last five games. If VT wants to make the post-season, they need to win home games like this.

Shooting slump?

The Hokies are mired in a horrible shooting slump of late. Last week, Tech was just 5 of 29 on threes (17%) and 32 of 52 on free throws (62%). That’s well below VT’s season averages of 33% and 67% in those two categories. The Hokies are 10th in the ACC in both those areas.

The main reason for the freefall has been the ice cold, and very un-Puerto-Rican-like, shooting of A.D. Vassallo. He is just 2 of 15 on threes (13%) and 8 of 16 on free throws (50%) in the last three games. Plain and simple, that is not getting it done. Vassallo is Tech’s best offensive threat and purest shooter. If he can hit threes, it opens up things inside. Maybe he needs to grow the ‘fro back.

Another problem is VT’s threes are not coming via catch-and-shoot, where the shooter is receiving a pass and stepping into his shot. This is where you get the highest percentage of makes. Instead, three-point shots are too often coming off the dribble or flat-footed. For example, in the duke game, the Hokies had 7 attempts that were off the dribble or flat-footed. They hit just one. And even when they did get good shots in rhythm, they were just 1 for 6. The percentage of in rhythm shots needs to go up. Eventually, they will start falling. This happens by penetrating inside the three-point line, drawing perimeter defenders, and then kicking it out to a shooter that can step into his shot. duke is the poster child for this. Watch how they penetrate inside the line and then find a shooter to kick it out to.

Against bc, Tech did a better job of getting threes off catch-and-shoot. Of their 16 threes, 12 were catch-and shoot threes, but the Hokies only hit two of them. Tech had six threes off penetration and kick-outs, and hit two of those. They just aren’t hitting open looks.

To compensate for the horrible shooting outside and on the line, Tech has pounded the boards. The Hokies had a season high (by far) 20 offensive rebounds against bc on Saturday, and the Hokies have won the rebounding margin in every ACC game thus far. Thanks in large part to those rebounds, the Hokies are shooting 51% on two-pointers in the last two games. If VT can start hitting threes again, this offense could really take off.

THE NUMBERS

Key Stat: VT is averaging just 13.0 turnovers per game in their 3 ACC wins, but 22.7 in their 3 losses.

THE GAME

A solid, quality team would win this game against florida state. As I mentioned above, the noles are slumping, having lost four of their last five games. The lone win was a squeaker against uva in Tallahassee. And their last two losses have been to wake and nc state, who aren’t title contenders in the ACC. I now know Virginia Tech is good, despite their youth, and resilient after their win at bc without Allen. But are they solid and capable of winning the games they should win? This game will show us that.

Al Thornton, the star of last year’s fsu squad and a first team All-ACC player, is off to the L.A. Clippers in the NBA. As I said with georgia tech, this is a supporting cast team. They don’t have a true star that can beat you on his own. They are very balanced though with five guys averaging in double figures. Tech needs to keep one, or two guys, from blowing up, which has been an issue of late. VT is good at guarding four guys, just not five.

This fsu team reminds me a lot of last year’s VT squad. The noles are very deep at the guard position. Too deep, in fact. They have four guards that have been in their system for four years with Toney Douglas (sat out his 2nd year so he’s only a junior), Isaiah Swann, Jason Rich, and Ralph Mims. They make up their top three scorers and four of their top five, all average over 28 minutes, and will have at least three of them on the court at almost all times. Those four guards combine for 49 of fsu’s 73 points per game (67%).

Inside, it is a different story for the noles. They are very thin depth-wise. Casaan Breeden and Solomon Alabi are out. They were the noles’ top two low post players off the bench. Instead, fsu relies on guys that they would rather not play in Vaughn, Zitani, and Demercy. None of them are offensive threats, nor is Ryan Reid, a starter down low. Their only big man that can score is Uche Echefu, but he is not a classic post-up player. He likes to shoot jumpers, even a couple of threes per game, or get his points off offensive rebounds.

The Hokies need to do a better job on defense against the nole guards then they have done of late. In the last four VT games, an opponent guard has gone for 28 points or more three times. Considering how many offensive threats fsu has at guard, this is the critical key to this game. Delaney has been playing defense with his hands too much lately, instead of his feet. The result is lots of fouls and lots of blow-bys for easy hoops. Hank Thorns did a great job against Tyrese Rice in the final 15 minuts against bc, holding him to just 1 point after getting 27 in the first 30 minutes.

The noles are the anti-VT. They shoot almost 80% from the line, thanks in large part to their guards who love to attack the rim. Even Echefu, their big man, is an 84% free throw shooter. For Tech, this gets back to playing defense with your feet and not getting reach-in fouls that will get fsu to the line.

As you would expect from a team deep at the guard position, the noles shoot, and make, a lot of threes. They hit about 7 per game and shoot just under 20. Tech plays great interior defense, but against the noles, they don’t need to collapse as deep due to the lack of a low post game for fsu. No double teams down low, except for maybe on Echefu. VT must stay out on the guards and make their three-point attempts difficult. If the Hokies can limit the nole guards to less than 45 points, VT should win.

On offense, the Hokies must pound it inside again. fsu, as I mentioned above, is thin inside. Allen and Thompson need to be fed the ball, and hammer the glass. Look for the nole guards to double-down on the post players and dare VT to hit threes. If Vassallo or Delaney can get it going from the outside and expand the fsu D out, I think VT can win this game by a “comfortable” margin (ie: more than 4 points in regulation).

THE LINEUPS

Expect VT to go small (Thompson in place of Diakite) to match the 3-guard lineup of fsu.

Notes:

• Tech has 10 regular season games remaining. They play every team in the ACC once except for duke, who VT is done with.
• VT must go 4-6 in their final 10 regular season games to be eligible for the NIT, regardless of how they do in the ACC Tourney. There is another 16 team post-season tournament, but they have not declared that a team must be over .500 to qualify.
• fsu is just 2-4 on the road this season. Against common opponents, fsu is 2-3 while VT is 1-4. fsu, like VT, lost to butler.
• The Hokies clinch a winning home record for the season with a win. VT is currently 7-1 at home with 6 to play. VT has had a winning home record every season they have played in the Cassell except for one, but that doesn’t really count since Ricky Stokes was the coach.

Popularity: 1% [?]