With 10 days left in the ACC regular season, let’s take a look at where the Hokies could be seeded for the ACC Tourney.  Tech could finish anywhere from 3rd to 8th.  And yes, Virginia Tech still has a great shot at a bye.  Yes, I’m talking about byes!  It’s as simple as this: if the Hokies win their final two games, they have a bye.  Now let’s look at the other scenarios.

First off, let’s eliminate unc and duke.  They will be the top two seeds in the tournament and no one has a shot at catching them.

Next, let’s send fsu, nc state, bc, and uva packing.  They cannot possibly finish ahead of VT in the final standings. 

That leaves us with five teams Tech is jockeying with for position.  To steal a baseball term, I’ll give you the “magic number”, along with who will own the tiebreaker.  Magic number equals the combination of Hokie wins and opponent’s losses it would take for VT to clinch finishing higher than them:

 

Let’s look at the games remaining and what the teams must do to beat out VT: 

• georgia tech has four games remaining, must win out, have VT lose both, and have clemson finish ahead of maryland in the standings to finish ahead of the Hokies.  So let’s go ahead and eliminate them.
• wake owns the tiebreaker over VT, thanks to their earlier win over the Hokies and their win over duke (beating a higher seed is a secondary tiebreaker).  The deacs are @ georgia tech, @ VT, and have nc state at home.  That’s a pretty easy schedule outside of VT, so the Hokies really need to win next Tuesday to finish ahead of wake.  If the Hokies TCB against wake, Tech clinches finishing ahead of them.
• miami has the easiest schedule of any of these teams with uva and bc at home, and finishing at fsu.  They could easily go 3-0.  But if the Hokies can beat wake, I think that will be enough assuming miami loses one of those three games.
• maryland has clemson at home this Sunday, then travels to uva next Sunday.  The winner of the md/clemson game will be sitting pretty in terms of earning one of the final two byes.  If VT and the terps finish tied, Tech has the tiebreaker thanks to the sweep.
• clemson has the big game at maryland, a trip to ga tech, and VT at home to finish.  The winner of the VT @ clemson game will obviously have the tiebreaker, so no matter what happens in the next nine days, the Hokies must beat the tigers to finish ahead of them.  And if the Hokies lose to wake and clemson beats maryland and the jackets, Tech will not be able to catch the tigers even with a win.  But Tech could still finish 4th even in that scenario and get a bye.

In summary, no matter what happens in the wake game, the Hokies will still have a chance at a bye.  And depending on what happens this weekend, VT may be able to clinch a bye with a win against wake.  If uva beats miami and clemson beats maryland, the Hokies will earn their third First Round bye in four years with a win against the deacons.  Or win both remaining games and everything else is moot, the Hokies have their bye.

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