THE SETUP

It is that time of the year again, ladies and germs: Time to put away the sunscreen and Speedo and grab your rakes and radios. As burnt orange and Chicago maroon leaves start to rain down on your lawn, the Hokie men’s basketball team is preparing to start raining threes and elbows down on the Atlantic Coast Conference. This Friday, October 16th, the Hokies kick off their 102nd season of Virginia Tech men’s basketball with Late Night with the Hokies (the artist formerly known as Midnight Madness) at 9 PM in the Cassell. Let’s take a look at this year’s squad, and next week we’ll break down the whole ACC.

QUICK HITS

• 2008-09 Record: 19-15 (7-9 ACC — tied for 7th)
• Postseason: Lost in the quarters of the ACC Tourney to NCAA Champion unc by three after beating miami in the First Round; lost to baylor in the Second Round of the NIT after beating duquesne in the First Round

photo by Jon Fleming

New Players

#42 Gene Swindle: 6’11″ Center — redshirted last season #25 Manny Atkins: 6’7″ Wing — reports say he can bomb the three #24 Ben Boggs: 6’4″ Shooting Guard — the local boy from Roanoke was hurt most of last year #11 Erick Green: 6’4″ Point Guard — his development at the point may be the key to the season #4 Cadarian Raines: 6’9″ Power Forward — think Cheick Diakite Part II REDSHIRTING: #3 Allan Chaney: 6’9″ Forward — transfer from the florida gators

Losses

A.D. Vassallo: Finished 5th on the all-time VT scoring list with 1822 points Cheick Diakite: Finished in the top 10 all-time for shots blocked at VT Hank Thorns: Transferred to tcu; never developed offensively Terrance Vinson: Only played 10 minutes last season

photo by Jon Fleming

LAST SEASON

The Hokies missed winning 20 games by just one win. With two prior 20+ win seasons, tech fell just short of reaching 20 for a third consecutive season, which would have matched the feat last accomplished during the Dell Curry era in the mid-1980s. 

It was an up-and-down season for the men in orange and maroon. As has unfortunately become the norm, the Hokies limped out of the starting blocks, losing heartbreakers to xavier, wisconsin, and georgia, including a ridiculous half-court buzzer-beater by xavier. After being throttled by duke to open ACC play, Tech regrouped and VT beat #1 wake forest the night before the 100th anniversary of Tech’s first-ever basketball game in January. The Hokies started 4-1 in ACC play before blowing a huge first-half lead against #12 clemson and losing two straight. Then they overcame a mammoth second-half deficit and beat nc state in overtime to start a two-game run to move to 6-3 in ACC play. Bad losses at maryland and uva followed, and another buzzer-beating loss to fsu pushed the Hokies to .500 in the ACC. Just when you were about to give up on the Hokies, they won at clemson. But tough, close losses to duke and unc at home and a loss at fsu dropped the Hokies to the #8 seed in the ACC Tournament. It marked only the second time in five seasons in the ACC that Tech had not finished in the top-four and received a first-round bye.

In the ACC Tournament, the Hokies blew out miami in maybe their best all around game of the season. And then the Hokies practically led #1 unc from start to finish in the quarterfinals, but couldn’t seal the deal down the stretch, struggling to stop Ed Davis and Tyler Hansbrough (believe it or not Hansbrough is finally gone).  Tech lost by three and lost out on an NCAA Tournament appearance for the second year in a row (leading unc all game in the ACC tourney but losing in the end to Wonder-Boy-Psycho-T for the second season in a row).

In the NIT, Tech was clearly not as motivated as the year before when they had a chip on their shoulder.  Virginia Tech won in double-overtime against duquesne, but gave up 108 points, including 46 to Aaron Jackson. In the second round, Tech got absolutely blown out of their own arena. The start time was 11 AM, and even though baylor had to travel from the central time zone, the Hokies were the team that appeared asleep. The bears could not miss a shot and took VT to the woodshed.

“One game short” has seemingly been the theme of Hokie roundball the last few years. With all they have accomplished in their five seasons in the ACC, Tech seemingly comes up one game short of something great each year. In 2006-07 they were one win short of the regular season ACC Championship, and later fell one win short of the Sweet Sixteen. In 2007-08 Tech was one play short of the ACC Championship (and likely a NCAA Tourney berth) and later in the NIT were one win shy of going to the Big Apple and the Most Famous Arena in the world. And of course last season Tech was one play from beating #1 unc in the ACC Tournament. We shall see if the Hokies can change their fortunes this year.

THE TEAM

The Backcourt

photo by Jon Fleming

The good news is the Hokies have the ACC’s top returning scorer in Malcolm Delaney. He also had the third most assists, highest free-throw percentage, and tied Crazyface Jon Scheyer for most threes made per game among returning ACC guys. Malcolm is a Preseason First Team All-ACC guy in most publications and the Hokies need a huge year from him. Delaney tired toward the end of last season, probably due to the fact he was nicked up and his minutes went up from 27 minutes per game (mpg) his freshman year to over 36 mpg last year — 90% of the total minutes played, Delaney was on the floor. Perhaps as a result, Delaney hit just 25% of his shots in the final seven games.

The best news for Malcolm has to be the addition this year of new freshman guard Erick Green. The Winchester native is one of three incoming freshman from the Commonwealth of Virginia. Erick is a reliable and dependable point guard, which will allow Malcolm to play more at the ’2′ and to get open off the ball. 

Green isn’t flashy like a Momo Jones, but he is a decent ball handler who can penetrate and dish. He isn’t a lights-out shooter, but he won’t need to be on this team. When I had the chance to see him play, Erick showed great instincts on defense. He reads passes well and gets steals leading to transition opportunities. While Erick does not seem likely to be the perimeter shutdown defender the Hokies have been looking for, he does seem to be a viable, solid defender. His length certainly helps as Erick is listed at 6’4″.

Ben Boggs also joins the Hokies this year. An injury limited his game action last year in his final high school season, but the Roanoke native has been working hard to get back in form and to be a contributor this season for the Hokies. He has improved his shooting over the last few years and is a gritty guard with good size at 6’4″. He’s what I call a working guard — not a point, and not an explosive shooter. But Ben will penetrate and battle. The key to him getting minutes will be his defense. That said, if Malcolm Delaney is able to shift a lot of minutes to shooting guard as we hope, it will be tough for Boggs to get minutes.

photo by Jon Fleming

Dorenzo Hudson improved over the course of last season. The junior averaged 6.8 ppg in the final two months of the season after averaging only 3.2 in the first three months. He also hit at least one three-pointer in nine of the last 10 games after starting out the season ice cold, initially hitting less than 25% from long range (he finished at 33%). But Tech needs Dorenzo to be a defensive stopper. Dorenzo showed that ability at times, and he has a big body at 6’5″ and 220 lbs. But he also gave up 46 points to Aaron Jackson in the NIT, and he struggled to stay with Wayne Ellington in the ACC Tournament. Tech will need points from Dorenzo with A.D. Vassallo gone, but more importantly Tech need Dorenzo’s defense to lock down on opposing scoring threats at guard.

Terrell Bell is another candidate to be Tech’s defensive stopper. At 6’6″ he can get his hands in passing lanes, but hasn’t shown enough ability on offense to get significant minutes. He hit just 33% of his shots and less than 20% of his threes last year. That won’t cut it if he wants to play this season.

Expect to see Tech run three guards out there at times. Manny Atkins (6’7″) is the most likely guy to have an offensive impact this year. He’s known to have great range, and the Hokies need more three point threats.  He should see minutes on the wing, either when Delaney is at the point with Hudson at the two, or with Green and Delaney in there. And if Bell and Hudson can’t get it done on offense, Atkins could really pick up minutes if his defense is up to snuff for Greenberg.

The Frontcourt

Tech returns star Jeff Allen in the front court, who is #8, #3, and #2 of ACC returning scorers, rebounders, and steal(ers) respectively. At times he appears like the most talented low post player the Hokies have had since maybe Ace Custis or even Allan Bristow. Athlon Sports rates him the #18 best fantasy college basketball player in the country (Delaney is #34). To be fair though, he is unlike any post player Tech has had before. He is thick (but not all that tall) with great low post moves. Jeff can hit the three (he hit 17/42 for 41% last year). He already has 528 rebounds (he’ll be in the top 10 after this season) and 130 steals (again, top 10 by the end of the season). But… in some games you hardly know Allen is there. 

Jeff’s experiment with playing lighter didn’t seem to work last year. He wasn’t able to push guys around inside last year and he was forced under the basket on offense more than when he was heavier. On defense, he was backed down at times. We’ll see if he’s beefed back up some. Foul trouble has been an issue at times, as he reaches in too much, and his frame also leads to offensive fouls on occasion. But on some nights it just doesn’t seem like Jeff brings his ‘A’ game. With Delaney you get maximum effort every night. If Jeff can match that, or even come close, and limit his silly fouls, the sky could be the limit.

The bad news is A.D. Vassallo is gone. Vassallo ended his Tech career in fifth place on the all-time Hokie scoring list and earned all-ACC honors his last two seasons. A.D. was also second on the team in rebounds last year. That said, there wasn’t much ‘D’ in A.D.’s game. His defensive assignment seemingly went off for a season high (Brian Asbury of miami comes to mind) on many nights. While losing his 19 points per game will certainly hurt dearly, having a stronger defender on the floor should lessen the impact. 

photo by Jon Fleming

JT Thompson brings a lot of energy but is just 6’6″ and 210. He finished fourth on the team in scoring last year with 6.5 ppg and he finished fifth in rebounds. He’s a terror on the glass, and he can get steals with his athleticism, but he’s not much of a shot blocker, partially due to the fact he is only 6’6″ in the low post. Tech likely will not be able to get away with a 6’6″ (Thompson) and 6’7″ (Allen) front court in the ACC. Thompson may play the three/small forward at times when on the floor with Allen, or subbing for Allen. So who is going to step up inside?

Since Cheick Diakite was a senior last year, Tech needs to find another big, tall body inside. Incoming freshman Cadarian Raines (6’9″) from Petersburg reminds me of Cheick a lot. Cadarian already has an ACC body (thick), he hits the boards hard, he’s a shot blocking force, but he has a very limited offensive game right now. Most of his points come from dunks or offensive rebounds. He must develop some post moves. It will be interesting to see if Cadarian gets much playing time this year since he will miss at least the first month of the season with a foot fracture. He should be back in time to get some out-of-conference experience before ACC play.

Sophomore Victor Davila (6’8″) showed good promise on offense last season with some strong post moves, but he seemed tentative at times on the glass and defense. Victor must get some intensity and go hard to the glass to see his minutes stay up.

Lewis Witcher (6’9″) returns as Tech’s lone senior that sees significant minutes, although he has never played more than 13 mpg. He has a couple of big games each season, but for the most part, like Victor Davila he seems to lack the intensity required in the low post. With younger players on the team that bring as much game and need minutes to develop further, it may be too late for Lewis at this point unless he really elevates his game.

Gene Swindle at 6’11″ will also be available this year. He came in as a “project”, redshirting last year to add muscle and develop his game. He gets up and down the court well, but it remains to be seen if he can be aggressive enough inside to help the team on the boards and blocking shots, or if he’ll be another Robert Krabbendam and just be a space-eater. 

So who will get Cheick’s minutes from last season? That is still to be determined. My money is on Davila getting the most minutes early on, but Raines will get a strong shot too once he returns around December.

One thing all Hokie low-post players must improve is where they setup on defense. Too often last year they were allowing their man to set up and receive the ball on the low block. In the ACC, that leads to layups. Tech defenders must root out the opposing low-post players and make it hard to setup and get the ball. They need to force opponents to receive the ball away from the hoop and facing up, instead of with their back to the basket.

2009-10 PROGNOSIS

The Hokies should be back in a familiar and comfortable place this season: picked in the lower half of the ACC. Last year pretty much every publication had Tech in the top half of the league (the media picked VT sixth but very close to #5 clemson) and had Tech going to the Big Dance. The Hokies weren’t able to meet those expectations. But Tech finished in the top four in the ACC in three of their first four seasons in the ACC despite being regularly picked near the bottom of the league.

• 2008-09: Picked 6th – Finished tied for 7th with two other teams
• 2007-08: Picked 10th – Finished 4th
• 2006-07: Picked 6th – Finished tied for 3rd
• 2005-06: Picked 8th – Finished tied for 10th
• 2004-05: Picked 10th (of 11) – Finished tied for 4th

Virginia Tech really seems to play better when less is expected of them. That has to have a lot to do with their head coach, Seth Greenberg, who seems to thrive with an ‘us against the world’ motivational theme. In 2004-05 and 2007-08 he did an amazing job with a very young team. In 2005-06 and 2008-09 Tech struggled with tweener teams (not babies but also not upperclassmen for the most part). This year, much like in 2006-07, the Hokies have a lot of guys with a lot of game experience, but most are juniors. Tech only has one senior that sees any minutes, Lewis Witcher, and he started just one game last year. Are the Hokies a year away, or can they make it back to the Big Dance this season?  Here are the keys that could decide that:

• Start Strong, Part I: Tech has struggled before New Year’s lately, losing some bad games. They lost to bad seton hall and georgia teams last year and were just 9-4 heading into conference play. Tech lost early to penn state, odu, and richmond in 2007-08, to western michigan, gw, and marshall in 2006-07, and to bowling green and odu in 2005-06. You don’t lose your invitation to the Big Dance in November/December, but you can make the postage you owe the rest of the way a lot higher. The Hokies have little margin for error this year — they need to win the games they should win and pull off a nice out-of-conference win. They really don’t have a sexy out of conference game this year, but wins over temple, iowa, and/or seton hall would look nice on the Hokies’ resume in March. With 13 out-of-conference games to start the season, 10-3 is a must with the schedule VT has, but 11-2 is what is really needed to help work toward an NCAA berth.
• Start Strong, Part II: In many games late last year the Hokies were down by close to half a dozen points by the first media timeout. Cold shooting was the norm. And the freeze often got worse from there. Since Tech likely won’t have an explosive offense, they cannot afford to dig themselves into holes early. Greenberg needs to emphasize winning the first 4-8 minutes.
• Who’s the Third Amigo?:  Everyone knew about Tech’s three headed monster of Allen, Delaney, and Vassallo last year. They scored 70% of the Hokies’ points. Well a whole lot of those points are gone with Vassallo headed to France. Tech must find some additional scorers, especially behind the arc. The best scenario would be some balanced support. If Dorenzo Hudson and JT Thompson can chip in about 15-20 points per game, that will help, and Hudson was much improved from long range late last season. Then one of the freshman will have to give the Hokies some points, possibly Manny Atkins, though Erick Green may have the most minutes. And if Victor Davila can double his production of 3.1 ppg from last year, that will also help. It will likely be a team effort to fill Vassallo’s void.
• Fresh-or-stale-men?:  Will the five freshman on Tech’s roster be able to contribute this year? Or will they just eat minutes without production? Erick Green must produce at the point — at least by becoming Tech’s top ballhandler and a solid defender to allow Delaney to move to the two-guard spot. Manny Atkins needs to give the Hokies another three-point threat. Ben Boggs can bring some toughness. And Cadarian Raines needs to at least bring to the table what Cheick Diakite did — rebounding and shot-blocking. If Gene Swindle can add anything, that will be a bonus.
• Interior D: Tech has been killed inside by bigger teams in recent years (nc state, georgia, mississippi, unc, etc.). This has largely been due to where opposing big men are allowed to catch the ball — way too close to the hoop. The Hokies must work harder inside at rooting big men out and forcing them to catch the ball farther from the basket. Then, the Hokies have to hit the defensive glass hard and not allow second chances.
• Chips on Shoulders: Tech plays well with chips on their shoulders, when not much is expected of them. That should be the case this year. Can Greenberg get the guys fired up and giving maximum effort? If so, the tough, gritty basketball he’s used to get 62 wins over the last three years could lead to the Hokies exceeding expectations again this year.

My final thought: I think the talking heads are selling VT short this year. While losing Vassallo hurts, as I said above, his “defense” won’t be missed. And Tech has every other major contributor back except for Cheick Diakite and Hank Thorns, while many teams lost several key cogs (although they also got higher profile recruits). Tech has six key players that are upperclassmen this year and who know Greenberg’s system. I believe that will pay off and Tech will surpass their low expectations. I’ll give you an exact spot next week when I break down the ACC.

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