Reviews many publications’ predictions, breaks down each team, and makes our own predictions…

THE SETUP

How will the ACC be this year?  On paper, this looks to be a down year for the league.  Well, at least by ACC standards.  The league lost the entire All-ACC 1st team and 12 of the 18 players that were 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or Honorable Mention All-ACC.  That means a lot of star power is gone and the teams that progressed the most from last year to this year have a real shot at capturing the crown. 

The first ACC basketball game is less than two weeks away (it features Isiah Thomas’ florida international team against defending champion unc) and the Hokies’ first game is less than three weeks away (November 15th against brown).  Let’s take a look at where different publications and the media have picked the ACC to finish this season, breakdown the teams, and do our own predictions. 

THE OTHERS’ PREDICTIONS

Here is a sampling of how some of the major college basketball publications have picked the ACC to finish:

Lindy Sports:

1. unc
2. duke
3. georgia tech
4. maryland
5. clemson
6. florida state
7. VIRGINIA TECH
8. boston college
9. wake forest
10. uva
11. nc state
12. miami

Athlon Sports:

1. unc
2. georgia tech
3. duke
4. maryland
5. clemson
6. florida state
7. boston college
8. VIRGINIA TECH
9. wake forest
10. nc state
11. miami
12. uva

Sporting News:

1. unc
2. duke
3. clemson
4. wake forest
5. maryland
6. florida state
7. georgia tech
8. boston college
9. VIRGINIA TECH
10. nc state
11. miami
12. uva

Media (from the ACC’s Operation Basketball Event):

1. unc and duke
2.  -
3. clemson
4. georgia tech
5. maryland
6. wake forest
7. florida state
8. VIRGINIA TECH
9. boston college
10. miami
11. uva
12. nc state

Average: If you take those four sources and average them, here is what you get (the average is in parenthesis):

1. unc (1.0)
2. duke (2.0)
3. georgia tech and clemson (4.0)
4. -
5. maryland (4.5)
6. florida state (6.25)
7. wake forest (7.0)
8. VIRGINIA TECH and bc (8.0)
9. -
10. miami (10.75)
11. uva (11.0)
12. nc state (11.3)

What does this tell you?  Here is the first Six Pack of the season: six things I’ve gathered from these predictions:

1. As always, pick unc and duke to finish #1 and 2 (playing the safe bet) no matter what their situation.  I think people are giving unc way too much credit.  More on that in a bit.
2. Pull a team that stunk the previous year out of your [hat] and predict them to finish in the top four.  Last year it was wake forest.  This year, the trendy surprise pick of choice is georgia tech (more on why that is later).
3. Every prediction I’ve seen has miami, uva, and nc state in the 10, 11, and 12 spots.  They are the clear cut bottom feeders this year (on paper).  History tells us one of these teams will surpass expectations and finish in the upper half of the league.  As much as it pains me to say it, I’d say uva has the best shot at surprising of those three teams.  Well, maybe miami.  More on that in the team breakdowns.
4. The Hokies are ALWAYS picked in the middle of the pack.  Always.  If you don’t believe me, look here: Historical ACC Media Predictions (at bottom of article)
5. The three former Big East teams are all in the lower half of the league.  Only bc finished in the upper half last year (tied for fifth) after all three teams had a lot of success in the first four years in the ACC.
6. I like the new Bud Light Golden Wheat beer – tastes like Blue Moon.  Usually I hate Bud Light and am pro-Miller Lite but with the VT colored Bud Light cans and this, I’m all turned around.  And yes, I know this has nothing to do with basketball but it does have to do with a six pack.

TEAM BREAKDOWNS

Here is how I see each team in alphabetical order:

boston college:

• Last year: 22-11 | 9-7 (tie-5th) | Lost in NCAA First Round
• Lost: Tyrese Rice (2nd team All-ACC)
• Recruiting Gains: NONE – they did not sign a single recruit
• Prognosis: Losing your star is one thing but Tyrese Rice was also their leader and made that team go.  He scored 22% of their points and had 35% of their assists last season.  Who can step up and run their offense?  It could be junior Biko Paris, who averaged 2.9 assists his freshman year but saw his minutes drop significantly last year.  Or it could be Reggie Jackson who showed flashes last year.  But they are not a very physical or big team outside of Josh Southern and will have trouble matching up with teams with good big men.  I see them finishing in the lower half of the league, somewhere between 8-10.

clemson:

• Last year: 23-8 | 9-7 (tie-5th) | Lost in NCAA First Round
• Lost: #2, 3, and 5 scorers from last season (K.C. Rivers, Mr. 3-pointer Terrence Oglesby, and Raymond Sykes).  This represented 45% of their points and Rivers and Oglesby made 63% of clemson’s threes last year.
• Recruiting Gains: Milton Jennings is a 5-star recruit at power forward and Top 25 nationally.  Also added two 4-star recruits.
• Prognosis: clemson is a team that loves to press and shoot the three.  They return Trevor Booker, who was 2nd team All-ACC last year and will be a force inside.  They have athletes to run their defense.  They added three long bodies all taller than 6′6″ who will be great on their press. But, who will shoot the ball for them?  Who can score for them in the half-court set other than Booker?  clemson is most successful when they can shoot the three, and they lost their two top shooters.  In fact, not one returning player averaged even one made three-pointer per game.  Oglesby’s early exit really hurt them and they did not pick up a shooter in this class unless Virginia Beach’s Donte Hill can step up.  If a team can limit their turnovers against the tiger press, pack it in on defense, and force someone other than Booker to beat them, this team is beatable.   That said, they are better off than most of the other ACC teams.  I see them finishing anywhere from 3-6.

duke:

• Last year: 28-6 | 11-5 (2nd) | Lost in NCAA Sweet 16 (again)
• Lost: Gerald Henderson, Greg “Teabag” Paulus, and Eliot Williams – Losing Henderson is a huge loss as he was 1st Team All-ACC and duke’s best player and athlete at the end of last year.  Also, they lost two of their three point guards from last season with the surprise transfer of Eliot Williams. 
• Recruiting: Added 5-star big man Ryan Kelly and 4-star big man Mason Plumlee. duke needed bulk inside and while these guys will help eventually, they might not carry enough weight to battle other top big men this year like Booker, Alabi, and Davis.
• Prognosis: duke needs to get tougher inside.  They have a ton of skill and return 2nd Team All-ACC permormer and preseason Player of the Year Kyle Singler and sharp-shooter Jon “Crazy Face” Scheyer.  Plus, Nolan Smith is a very good point guard but duke lacks any real depth at guard behind Smith and Singler.  If the guards don’t wear down over the course of the season, this is my team to beat in the ACC.

florida state:

• Last year: 25-9 | 10-6 (4th) | Lost in NCAA First Round
• Lost: 1st team All-ACC Toney Douglas.  Douglas averaged 21.5 ppg (the only nole averaging in double digits).  Also lost Uche Echefu.  Those two combined for almost 50% of fsu’s made three-pointers last year.
• Recruiting: Added 5-star and Top 10 recruit Michael Snaer, a shooting guard.  He will be counted on heavily to fill the void of losing Douglas.
• Prognosis.  Douglas was fsu basketball last year.  That team was the bottom-feeder that rose up the ranks to be the surprise #4 seed in the ACC Tourney.  The noles have 7′1″ Solomon Alabi who can match-up with the other bigs of the conference and wing Chris Singleton is a star in the making who will likely become their main scorer this year along with Snaer.  But the key is Snaer – can he be an outside threat who can draw defenses out to free up Alabi and Xavier Gibson inside?  Can Singleton be more consistent?  Two good recruiting classes in a row help but I see this team taking a step back this year.  They are still very young in terms of talent and will struggle to fill in Douglas’s production (he was also co-defensive player of the year in the ACC).  I see them in the 6-8 range.

georgia tech:

• Last year: 12-19 | 2-14 (12th)
• Lost: Lewis Clinch (15.5 ppg) and Alade Aminu (11.8 ppg, 8 rpg, 1.8 blocks per game)
• Recruiting: Picked up 5-star and Top 5 recruit Derrick Favors (post), a 4-star PF, a 4-star SG, and a 4-star PG.  Favors is the Preseason ACC Freshman of the Year.
• Prognosis:  Oh, don’t get me started.  You lose your #1 and 3 scorers and #2 rebounder, finish 2-14, but are picked to finish fourth in the league and earn a First Round bye in the ACC Tournament.  wake was the hot pick to do this last year thanks to their insane recruiting class, but they had finished 7-9 in the league the year before (not 2-14) and had some veteran leadership.  All the veterans on this team have done is lose.  They do return 3rd team All-ACC member Gani Lawal inside.  He is a talent as is Iman Shumpert at guard.  But it is hard to adjust from the high school level — even with all the AAU and showcase games these guys play — to the talent, depth, and skill you see at the college level, so I’m not buying into the theory these freshman can lead the jackets way up the charts.  History has shown some of these recruits won’t pan out, either, at least not yet.  And outside shooting is a question mark for this team. Anyone remember when they had super-stud recruits Javaris Crittenton (#7 recruit in the nation) and Thaddeus Young (#5) in 2006-07?  Yeah, they finished 8-8 in conference and tied for sixth place. They’ll be better this year than last, especially because they have depth at guard unlike most teams, but I see them finishing in the #5-7 range of the league.

maryland:

• Last year: 20-13 | 7-9 (tie-7th) | Lost in NCAA Second Round
• Lost: Not much – just Dave Neal, a former walk-on who became a stud shooter.
• Recruiting: They picked up a couple of forwards to help inside but no stud recruit in this class.
• Prognosis: As much as I hate maryland, I have them as my third place team.  They have the most experience coming back of any team other than uva in the league (and their talent coming back is a lot better).  They have 2nd team All-ACCer and former arm-curl victim Greivis “Greasy Face-quez” Vasquez back, a four year contributor at guard in Eric Hayes, a stud athlete (James Gist-clone) in Landon Milbourne, return eight of their top nine guys overall.  This is a team that beat both teams that played for the title – michigan state and unc.  On the flip side, they also lost to morgan state, criticized their own fans, and lost by 41 at duke in a game in which they scored just 15 first half points.  And they are extremely weak in the paint, which is a problem because the ACC is loaded with big men.  The terps leading rebounders last year were Milbourne (wing) and guard Vasquez (guard).  But I’m all about experience (see unc last year).  I think they have enough to get back in the upper tier of the league, at least for one year.

miami:

• Last year: 18-12 | 7-9 (tie-7th) | Lost in Second Round of NIT
• Lost: 1st team All-ACC Jack McClinton (19.3 ppg and 101 made 3’s), Brian Asbury, and Lance Hurdle.  Asbury and Hurdle were both contributors in the 7-8 ppg range but losing McClinton is a huge blow.  He was the “it” factor for them – the go-to guy who could take a game over.
• Recruiting: SG Durant Scott is a Top 50 recruit and will have to fill some of the void left by McClinton’s departure.
• Prognosis: The c-a-n-e-s canes used to beat you with a hockey goon line in the paint and a sharp-shooter on the outside.  Gone are all the goons (including butterfingered tight end and All-ACC-Ugly-Team member Jimmy Graham), except for Dwayne Collins.  Also gone is the sharp-shooter, McClinton.  In fact, they have just six scholarship players back that saw minutes last year.  Collins is a solid post player, though he doesn’t show up every night, and DeQuan Jones was a 5-star recruit the year before.  Jones only averaged 2.7 ppg though last year.  He must improve.  There’s no reason to believe this team will finish anywhere but in double digits in the league.  I see them in the 9-11 range.

unc:

• Last year: 28-4 | 13-3 (1st) | National Champs
• Lost: EVERYONE – Tyler Hansbrough (ACC Player of the Year), Ty Lawson (1st Team All-ACC), Danny Green (3rd Team All-ACC), and Wayne Ellington (Honorable Mention All-ACC).  That represented their top four scorers and 67% of their points. 
• Recruiting: What do you think?  It was great – they picked up a 5-star player (6′10″ John Henson) and four 4-star players (two guards and twins that play forward)
• Prognosis:  Everyone is picking them to win the ACC.  Why?  I’m legitimately asking… why?  If nevada had won the NCAA title last year and was returning the same team unc has this year plus the recruits they have, they would be lucky to be picked in the top 20.  But it is unc and it is potentially a down year for the league so let’s just pick the heels as always.  I’m not buying it.  Their top returning guard?  Larry Drew II who averaged a whopping 1.4 ppg and 1.9 assists per game last year.  Now, they will be loaded in the paint with Deon Thompson, Ed Davis, wing Will Graves, Tyler Zeller, and their three big freshman.  But guard play is the key to winning on the college level.  Teams like clemson will give unc fits.  And experience is very underrated.  After all, the unc team that won it all last year was led by two seniors and two juniors.  This team has just one upperclassman that saw significant minutes last year, Deon Thompson, and returns injured senior Marcus Ginyard who is just a role player.  That said, because unc has finished first or second every year since the ACC expanded (including when Hansbrough was a freshman and so were Lawson/Ellington), I’m picking them to finish second (I know, big talk and then I cave in to the rule that duke and unc have to be in the top two).  At least I’m not picking them first.  I could see them slipping as far down as 4th place in the league, so 2-4 is my range for them.

nc state:

• Last year: stunk
• This year: stink
• Any questions?   Ok, ok…
• Last year: 16-14 | 6-10 (10th)
• Lost: Their top three scorers (Brandon Costner, Ben McCauley, and Courtney Fells) who accounted for 50% of their points and rebounds.
• Recruiting: They added a 4-star PF in Richard Howell and Vinston Painter’s (football) cousin, Deshawn Painter, but there are no J.J. Hickson’s in this class.
• Prognosis:  The cupboard isn’t bare but it is pretty much down to that can of Dinty Moore Beef Stew that has been sitting there for years.  Tracy Smith is a good player at power forward, but Hokie-killers Costner and McCauley are gone (thank goodness).  They are just 4-18 in  road games the last two years and 2-14 in ACC road games.  The pack will get destroyed inside and don’t have much athleticism.  They are my clear cut last place team and if they finish in single digits, I’ll be stunned.  I’ll also be stunned if the red blazer (Sidney Lowe) survives another year.

uva:

• Last year: 10-18 | 4-12 (11th) | CBI, baby!
• Lost: Not much – just Mamadi Diane
• Recruiting: Tristan Spurlock is a Top 100 recruit at small forward but wouldn’t let me arm-curl him, so boo to him.  Also added an average point guard.
• Prognosis: Like maryland, this team returns a lot.  Like the terps, they have a star in Sylven Landesberg (co-Rookie of the Year).  Unlike maryland and most of the other ACC teams, the rest of their team isn’t very good.  Mike Scott is a decent player inside but also doesn’t show up every night.  Calvin Baker isn’t an ACC guard.  Jamil Tucker is a streaky shooter from outside.  Zeglinski I thought sold auto parts in Chicago, yet is running their offense at the point.  And the rest… New coach Tony Bennett will bring a slow-down, drag-it-out, defensive philosophy to ch’ville.  So they likely will stay in games because scoring will be down, but how much will these players buy into it?  And athleticism is not a strength of this team, nor is physicality, which you need to play good defense.  I think Bennett gets these guys into the 9-10 range of the ACC.

VIRGINIA TECH: See our Season Preview

wake forest:

• Last year: 24-6 | 11-5 (3rd) | Lost in NCAA First Round
• Lost: Jeff Teague and James Johnson – 47% of points and top rebounder
• Recruiting: After last year’s stud class, they came back to Earth this year with no concensus Top 50 guys but did add two guards and a forward.
• Prognosis: Like almost every other team in the league, it is all about how the returning guys developed this offseason.  They have some solid returning talent in the post with 6′9″ Al-Farouq Aminu (12.9 ppg/8.2 rpg) and 7′ Chas McFarland (8.7/5.8).  Ishmael Smith is a quick point guard, but between him and L.D. Williams they don’t have much offense in the deacon backcourt.  They will miss Teague severely there.   This team hit just 126 threes last year (Jack McClinton hit 101 on his own), so they must improve their outside shooting to pull defenses out and allow their big men to operate inside.  Their big men allow them to play with any team in the country and match size, but they have to have a perimeter threat to win consistently.  I could see them finishing anywhere from 3-8.

NIEMO’S PREDICTIONS:

The Big Dance

I only believe five teams at most from the ACC will make the Big Dance this year, a far cry from the seven that made it last year.  Only four made it two years ago.  So finishing high up in the league is vital.  We saw two years ago that even a fourth place VT team that won in the Quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament, and then lost by a bucket in the final seconds to unc, wasn’t enough to get in.  A similar fate may befall some of the top teams this year if they don’t do well out of conference and get some big wins in conference.  unc is vulnerable this year and could give some teams a top quality win.  I’ll take the top five teams from below as making the Big Dance, though that list is very fluid.

ACC Standings

OK, enough talk and ranges.  How do I see the ACC shaking out, you ask?  Well here you go:

1. duke
2. unc
3. maryland
4. clemson
5. VIRGINIA TECH – why the heck not?  The Hokies have two studs back, one inside and one outside, and good experience.
6. wake forest
7. georgia tech
8. florida state
9. uva
10. boston college
11. miami
12. nc state

Since so many top players from the ACC are gone from last season, I think experience will be the key this year.  The young players and teams will have flashes, but give me the teams that have been through the battles before.  That’s duke, maryland, and VT.  I think all of them will exceed expectations.  And I’m not sold on clemson.  I like Booker a lot but the rest of the team is a work in progress and will struggle to score other than off turnovers. unc could slip as far as #4 but I’m confident duke and unc will both get first round byes in the ACC Tournament.  The rest is a crap-shoot.  Put maryland, clemson, VT, wake, georgia tech, and fsu on a dartboard, close your eyes, and huck two darts at it.  There’s your other two teams that will get byes.  There is so much turnover in the ACC this year almost anyone could step up and finish in the top four.  Well, anyone but nc state.

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