Before I get to my tempo-free stat analysis, here are a few notes from yesterday and general observations about the Hokies:

General:

• Yes, Tech blew a 14-point first half lead.  And blew it in a hurry.  But 2-2 is 2-2, I’ll take it.  I’ll also gladly take a split this week, at uva and miami.  I’ll take a split next week (home against unc and clemson).  So give me 4-4 in a contract and I’ll sign on the dotted line right now.
• This team sure does struggle in second halves.  Teams tend to score more in the second half (because there are more fouls at the end to increase the number of possessions), but the Hokies have a -36 point difference between the first and second half in their four ACC games.  Only in the fsu game did VT score more in the 2nd than the 1st.  In fact, they were double-digit negative in the other three games.  Something needs to be done to get the offense going in the second stanza.

Offense:

• After going up 14 with 3:30 to go in the first half against bc, Tech scored just four points over the next 13 minutes.  That is pathetic.
• One of the biggest problems with the offense is their inability to score in the half court.  Tech has very few, if any, guys that can score off the dribble.  Hudson can but that is about it.  Delaney cannot, plain and simple.  He draws a lot of fouls, but very rarely finishes.  So no foul call, no points.  And he seemed hesitant to go at the rim yesterday, even when the lane appeared to be open if he could beat his man off the dribble (and bc doesn’t have any erasers inside anyway).  This is a huge issue.
• Tech has been shooting the three better in ACC play, hitting 33% (24/72) but they are making six per ACC game, up from a little under five OOC.  But that still isn’t that many.
• So, if you aren’t a big three-point shooting team, and you can’t score off the drive in the half court, how can you score?  Answer: either in transition, which Tech does very well and create a lot of turnovers, or feeding the ball into your bigs, which the Hokies do not do well…
• In ACC play, Jeff Allen is averaging 7.5 ppg, JT Thompson is at 6.0 ppg, and Victor Davila is averaging 4.5 ppg.  That’s just a combined 18 ppg and simply isn’t enough.  Only Allen has reached double digits in any of the ACC games, and he did that just once in the miami contest with 14.
• Thank goodness the Hokies get a lot of turnovers.  They are averaging 19.3 points off turnovers per game.  Considering Tech is averaging just 66.5 ppg in ACC play, that is a big chunk of that.
• Thank goodness Zo Hudson has stepped up his game.  Where would this team be without his improved offense?

Defense:

• Tech has caused their opponents to commit at least 20 turnovers in three straight games, leading to all those points off turnovers.
• I really like the VT half court trap and hope they continue to use it at times.  With a lanky, athletic guy like Terrell Bell who has long arms, it is hard to throw over or around him.  The Hokies really haven’t been burned out of this trap much that I’ve seen and it helps create turnovers.  Tech has done a great job with help defense when an opponent does beat the trap.
• The Hokies did a wonderful job on the defensive glass yesterday, allowing just four offensive rebounds in 17 opportunities (24%).  No one in ACC play has gotten more than 36% of their misses (unc – 36%, miami – 30%, fsu – 34%, bc – 24%).  That’s solid.  Tech is getting 31% of their misses, not great but considering their lack of size inside, you can live with that.

OK, let’s switch to tempo free stats…

Tempo-Free Stat Breakdown

At the beginning of December I took a look at how Virginia Tech ranked in terms of tempo-free stats.  For those of you that aren’t huge losers (and therefore don’t know what tempo-free stats are), it is a way of comparing basketball teams in ways other than points per game or field goal percentage as Neanderthals do.  Tempo-free stats look at things like points per possession, eliminating pace as a bias.  In other words, a team that runs up and down the court and shoots quickly may average a lot more points per game than a team that covets the ball and waits for good looks, but in reality are less productive (points per possession).  Same idea on defense but obviously the fewer points you allow per possession, the better.  Teams basically get the same number of possessions every game, so if you average more points per possession, you win almost every time, regardless of whether you average 90 ppg or 60. [Note: I use kenpom.com for my stats, or my own data]

Offense:

• Offensive Efficiency (basically points per possession): 1.035 – in other words, Tech averages 1.035 points per possession.  That ranks 126th in the nation out of 347 teams.  Hard to believe it is that high, but the OOC games helped skew this.   [Note: the NCAA average is right at 1 point per possession]
• Offensive Efficiency in ACC Play: 0.953 – not surprising to anyone it is under 1 in league action the way this offense has looked.  miami is the only game it was over 1.  At home it is 1.038 compared to 0.869 on the road, but then again the teams were much better on the road.
• Effective FG% (your FG% with a bonus of .5 given for three’s made): 47.6% (217th in the nation of 347 teams) – if you don’t make a lot of threes, and don’t shoot for a high percentage inside, here is your result.
• Turnover % (turnovers / possessions): 18.3% (53rd in the nation) – Tech usually takes care of the ball well and are this year.
• Offensive Rebounding % (your offensive rebounds / the total of  your offensive rebounds and your opponents’ defensive rebounds): 37.8% (35th in the nation) – Tech has done a solid job on the offensive glass all year, though this is down to 31% in ACC play with the bigger teams this league has.
• Tempo (# of possessions per game): 67.3 (205th in the nation) – all this means is Tech takes their time and doesn’t push the ball a ton, though with their struggles in the half court, maybe this needs to go up and try and push the action more.

Defense:

• Defensive Efficiency (points allowed per possession): 0.851 – FIFTH in the nation!  Again, this is skewed by the fact nccu averaged less than half a point per possession, and umbc was near there, too.  But this team does play great defense.
• DE in ACC Play: 0.965 – No surprise it is higher in league play but it is a great sign it is under one.  Only unc surpassed 1 against Tech so far, miami and fsu were both way under.
• Effective FG% (your opponents’ FG% with the .5 bonus for threes made): 43.9% – 21st in the nation! Again, great job on defense by the Hokies.  Though bc shot better than 50% from the field in both halves yesterday and carolina hit 65% of their second half shots against Tech.  This category is big but when you create so many turnovers, it becomes slightly less crucial to win.
• Turnover %: 24.1% – 30th in the nation!  Without this stat, the Hokies would certainly be 1-3 in conference play.  Turnovers obviously keep your opponent from scoring, and have been the source of 30% of Tech’s points in league play.
• Offensive Rebounding %: 30% – 63rd best in the nation.  The Hokies have done a good job on the boards all season, even in ACC play.

Other Nuggets:

• According to kenpom.com and their probability calculators, VT will go 6-6 the rest of the way (what I keep saying they have to do to make the dance).  They will go 5-1 at home (only losing to maryland… yes, that means beating unc and clemson), and going 1-5 on the road (only beating bc).
• kenpom.com strongly thinks VT will beat unc, uva, and nc state at home (74-78%), and will surely lose at duke (8% win probability), and likely won’t win at georgia tech (29% chance).

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