ACC Power Poll | 2.6.11

With unc’s woodshed-beating of fsu on Sunday, the weekend’s action is complete.  Every team has played at least eight ACC games, meaning the league’s regular season slate is halfway complete (or more).  There are exactly four weeks left in the regular season.  The men are starting to separate themselves from the boys and four classes of teams have emerged:

  • The Evil Empire (duke and unc… who else would you expect)
  • The Contenders (fsu, bc, VT, maryland, and clemson)
  • The Pretenders (miami, uva, georgia tech, and nc state)
  • The Ship Sunk a Long Time Ago (wake forest)

For this Power Poll I’m just going to list teams as they are in the standings today, with tiebreakers included.  I wouldn’t call bc the fourth best team in the ACC, but they would be the #4 seed if the season ended today thanks to wins over maryland and VT.  But they have a big week with games against fellow 5-4 clubs, clemson and maryland.

Without further ado, here’s the standings (Current Place, Team, Record, Where I Think They’ll Finish):

  1. duke (8-1) (1) – The blue devils responded from the embarrassing spanking they received in MSG with an 18-point win at maryland (breaking VT’s record for biggest win at maryland) and a 24-point bombing of nc state.  They will face a red hot carolina team on Wednesday night.
  2. unc (7-1) (2) – Larry Who?  I finally believe in the heels, and who wouldn’t.  They’ve won five in a row, and their last three by 20+.  They are so athletic, no one other than duke can match up with them.  Wednesday will be interesting, but the game is at duke so I’m picking duke.  But I think they’ll beat duke at home at the end of the year once the young heels get used to a big game like that and figure out the devils.  unc will be tough to catch – they have a big lead over fsu and the rest of the field, and have the tiebreaker over fsu, clemson, VT, and bc — all the teams chasing them but maryland.
  3. florida state (6-3) (4) – It was not a good 10 days for the noles.  They got crushed at clemson, then killed wake (whoop-dee-doo), and then waxed by unc.  This is not a good road team.  They are 5-0 at home but just 1-3 away.  They have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way, so I think they’ll be able to stay in top four.  They are 2-2 against the four teams at 5-4.
  4. boston college (5-4) (7) – The eagles had lost three games in a row by a combined 64 points going into their game against VT.  Luckily, they faced the Hokies on a day where they couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat.  Now they sit at 2-0 against md, clemson, VT.  But they play both clemson (away) and md (home) this week.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see them lose both.  And they have to go to VT.  I think they’ll fade in the final seven games.
  5. VIRGINIA TECH (5-4) (3) - Can the Hokies go 5-2 the rest of the way?  Maybe.  And they’ll have to in order to finish third as I think fsu will cruise to 10-6.  Tech would have the tiebreaker.  The Hokies have four winnable games coming up, facing the jackets (0-7 on the road this year) and maryland at home, then at uva and wake.  Some people want 4-0 here.  I’d be happy with 3-1.  If VT then lost to duke, they’d then have to beat bc at home and then pull off a win at clemson.  It won’t be easy, but if Tech wants to make the Big Dance, they need to close the second half at 5-2, just like they closed the first half.
  6. maryland (5-4) (5) – The terps are 1-1 against bc/VT/clemson.  They need to go 5-2 the rest of the way to get a bye AND beat VT (road) and fsu (home).  I don’t think it will happen.  They are playing great basketball and are done with duke, but they have a fairly tough slate the rest of the way.  I think they go 4-3 and finish at 9-7 just outside the top four.
  7. clemson (5-4) (6) – The tigers just don’t seem that good to me.  They only play maryland (lost), bc, and VT once.  They need to win against bc and VT to get some tiebreakers.  But with unc, duke, VT, and bc left on their slate, I think they go 3-4 the rest of the way and finish tied with bc, but get the tiebreaker assuming they beat bc on Tuesday night at home.
  8. miami (3-6) (8) – The canes have won two in a row and had fsu, state, unc, and VT dead to rights in the four losses before that. But it is too little too late and they have a tough road to go.  They’ll be dangerous in the ACC Tournament again this year, and should be very good next year.  But they aren’t a challenger this year in the regular season.  They are 2-0 against uva and georgia tech and have the tiebreakers.
  9. uva (3-6) (11) – The nc state at uva game will be for 10th place.  Big deal.
  10. georgia tech (3-6) (9) – The jackets managed to lose a game in which miami committed 28 turnovers in and basically couldn’t get the ball over half court for the final 10 minutes.  How?  Paul Hewitt is their coach (at least for another month) and it was on the road.  Seriously, if VT loses to these guys at home, I’m going to be very, very upset.
  11. nc state (2-7) (10) – I wonder how many coaches have already sent their resume to the state AD requesting to be considered for the Head Coaching job.
  12. wake forest (1-7) (12) – Hey, they beat uva!  They can’t go winless!

This post was written by:

- who has written 1106 posts on Tech Hoops.

Niemo is a member of the VT Class of '98. Attended every home basketball game during his 4 years at VT after missing the first home game. Has attended 122 straight VT football home games (every game since '94), eclipsing the 100 mark in September of '09. During the final home basketball game of his senior year, he was brought onto the court and was awarded 2 passes to the Atlantic 10 Basketball Tournament in Philly during a timeout. The Hokie Bird made the award on behalf of Athletic Director Jim Weaver. Niemo was known to be in the front row of every home game with his familiar red afro hairdo. Niemo currently lives in DC and speaks the Hokie gospel as often as possible. He watches over 50% of all ACC games, making him one of the most knowledgeable experts on ACC basketball.

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  • hokiegrad

    The only game in the next 4 where losing wouldn’t be a complete travesty is the Maryland game. I will be so upset if they lose to GT(home), UVA(road… but it’s UVA, and we have to make up for last time), or Wake(does it matter where it’s played?). And losing to Maryland @ home would really hurt our already struggling NCAA tourney hopes. For that matter, the way Clemson looks right now the same might be said for that game, even on the road.

    • Niemo

      I hear ya but do you really think we’ll go 4-0 in this stretch? I wouldn’t be shocked to see us go 3-1, or even 2-2 and then beat duke.

  • http://www.heyhokie.com Goodraisin

    Yep, the key to this season, as it always has been since we lost the game to Purdue, is beating Duke. A win against Duke will mean that VT can go 9-7 or even 8-8 in the ACC with a tourney win or two, and still make the NCAA tournament. Frankly though, I’d love to see VT make a little run in the ACC tournament… we are absolutely due for a good performance in that tournament.

  • Hokieguru

    A 10-6 ACC team without a win vs. Duke or UNC, in my view, cannot make that NCAA tournament (A 10-6 ACC recard with now win vs. Duke or UNC is a CARBON copy of what happened to us last year). If we win 1 game in the ACC tournament, then maybe a 10-6 conference season would get us in the tourney. I believe that we have to go 11-5 in the ACC if we do not beat Duke, which means that I think we’d have to win 6 of 7. If we beat Duke, we can go 10-6 in the ACC.

    A 9-7 record in the ACC, including a win vs. Duke, and two wins (maybe three wins) in the ACC tournament might also get us into the big dance.

    Under no circumstances (none, nada, zilch) will the Hokies get into the NCAA tournament with an 8-8 ACC record, unless we win the ACC tournament.

    I’ve asked Jerry Palm (CollegeRPI.com) about both of those 9-7 and 8-8 ACC scenarios and he doesn’t buy that an ACC team gets in with those types of records, unless they go deep into the ACC tourney.

    We are at the same exact point we were last year… it’s like Ground Hog Day, but this time I think the Ground Hog sees his shadow, gets excited by the sun, and the Hokies make the NCAA tournament.

  • Casey

    It will be interesting to see our defensive strategy from here on out. A return to the zone would be nice except we’ll need to keep guys like Oliver from GT, Zeglinski, etc. in check from beyond the arc. Regardless I think Seth will do a good job putting the chip back on our shoulder since that’s when we are at our best. GT is a revenge game and the only other one that shouldn’t naturally get us fired up would be Wake, and considering the state they’re in we should be alright in the trip to Winston Salem.

    Niemo, good point about Delaney possibly being tired after 38 minutes or so. Remember last year at this time, all the minutes he played caught up to him. Green wasn’t ready to spell him last year, and now Garland is in the same boat.

    • Niemo

      I don’t think we can play zone against duke or bc because of the number of shooters they have. The problem is against duke we don’t have good on-ball defenders at guard. It is almost choose your poison with duke — either force them to beat you from 3, or off the dribble. May have to mix up the zone and man a lot to keep them off-guard. Against bc we just need to fight over screens instead of under and not double down on anyone.
      I think we’ll see the zone again against georgia tech. We just need to jump things more quickly, especially the pass to the foul line. But no way Oliver is as hot as he was that night (although he was wide open on a lot of those shots).
      maryland will definitely be zone after their struggles last time.
      Probably box and 1 against wake (the 1 on Clark).
      uva I bet we’ll go man since they don’t have anyone inside that can really hurt us.
      clemson – eh, so far away. We’ll see. But I’d say zone, they aren’t that good of a shooting team.

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