Just 10 days ago the Hokies were sitting at 11-3 and we were riding the gravy train on biscuit wheels heading into ACC play.  Tech had won 6 in a row, and looked very strong in the process.  We had our worries about the seniors, but the Erick Green was truly a star, and the freshmen were getting better by the day.

Now, here we stand, 0-2 in the ACC for the first time since ‘The Nightmare,’ the 2005-06 season that began with so much process, but ended with so much heartache, from the duke buzzer-beater to the tragedies that impacted families of the players (Deron, A.D., Coleman) and even the players (God bless AC).  That team finished 4-12 in conference

We can’t blame a miracle shot, or off the court distractions this year.  But we do have plenty to blame…

• Offensive 3-Point Shooting: Heading into ACC play, the Hokies were hitting 38% of their long balls.  Chicks did the long ball, and if you haven’t seen THIS ARTICLE, so does the ‘W’ column.  Over Tech’s last 35 games, the team that has shot for a higher 3-Pt% in that game has won 33 times (VT is 22-1 when shooting for a higher percentage, but 1-10 when lower).  In the Hokies’ 2 ACC games, they are 8/34 from behind the arc, a pathetic 24%.  It is looking like the Hokies simply overachieved here early on against lesser defenses.  Green, who was under a 30% 3-Pt Shooter coming into the year, started the year 15/26 from deep!  But he’s just 3/17 (18%) in his last 6 games, and 2/8 in ACC play.  Jarell Eddie is hitting an amazing 52% from long range on the year, but he’s had 2 or fewer attempts in 4 of the last 6 games.  The Hokies must find ways to get him open looks as opposed to some of the other guys that are heaving it from deep (Zo is 0/7 on 3s in ACC action).
• Opponent’s 3-Point Shooting: Per the stat mentioned above, the Hokies need to shut down their opponent’s 3-point shooting.  Tech was #1 in the ACC in 3-Pt% Defense coming into ACC play, and at times had been #1 in the nation.  But wake and fsu combined to hit 12/31 on 3s (39%).  Tech has been going under screens and this has burned them, as we saw at the end of the wake game when the post defender on the perimeter didn’t flash out on Harris, and Green went underneath the pick, allowing him a wide open look to win the game.
• Getting into the Offense: The Hokies have never been a thing of beauty on offense under Greenberg, but the last 2 games have been about as ugly as I’ve seen.  Teams have forced Tech to pick up their dribble 40-feet from the basket.  This means the first pass isn’t an attacking pass, it is a reactive pass.  The receiver gets it 30+ feet from the basket moving away from the hoop with their back to the goal.  This gets you out of an attacking position.  Then the passes around the perimeter start.  Meanwhile, opponents have no trouble dribbling inside the 3-point line, giving them the option of either going to the bucket, or if the perimeter help collapses, kicking it out, or if the post defense helps, dishing it inside or giving up offensive rebounds…
• Defensive Rebounding: Speaking of giving up offensive rebounds, a big concern I had before the season was how VT would do in this area.  Tech was shaky early on, but have not been good in the 2 ACC games.   In fact, they’ve stunk.  Heading into ACC play, Tech was grabbing 67% of their opponents’ misses.  That’s average, but given our lack of size, we could live with that.  That number has dropped to under 60% in ACC play.  And keep in mind wake was the 2nd worst rebounding team in the ACC on offense AND defense, but they snagged 37% of their misses, well above their average.  And fsu, thanks in large part to Bernard James’s 9 offensive rebounds, got 44% of their misses leading to 14 second chance points.
• Offensive Rebounding: On offense, Tech is getting just 32% of their misses (the opponents are getting 40% of their misses as I stated above).  You cannot give teams more opportunities than you, and that killed the Hokies at the end of the fsu game when Bernard James took over.
• Big Men: Some ACC teams have them, the Hokies don’t for the most part.  At least really tall ones.  Tech doesn’t have a single player over 6’9″ that plays.  And Raines is the only 6’9″ guy they have.  He got a lot of minutes against the noles, but fouled out with 4 minutes to go and that led to the beatdown Bernard James put on down the stretch.  Think about what bigs like Mike Scott, who has owned VT for years, and Tyler Zeller and Beanpole Henson and Mason Plumlee will put on us.  Luckily, the ACC is sparse on bigs this year (the good news is bc has nothing inside).  But trust me, it isn’t a good thing when Jarell Eddie is our 2nd leading rebounder.  Our bigs have to get an attitude to them.  I think Raines has it.  Maybe it’s too late for Davila, but let’s hope Barksdale gets it.  Too many times VT bigs got blocked by guys well shorter than them against fsu.  They can’t be looking to lay it off the glass, they have to be trying to tear the hoop down like Darryl Dawkins in the 80s.
•  Stagnant Offense: We’ve seen this for years.   It hasn’t gotten any better.  Against 2-3 zones, Tech doesn’t feed the high post.  They pass the ball around the perimeter hoping something magical will happen.  Against good man-defense, as I said above, the Hokies can’t advance the ball into attack positions, though they did much better in the 2nd half against fsu.  So little movement in the half court.  Awful.

So, is it that bad?  Well, I think we have to start to face facts we overachieved in the non-conference slate.  Tech played great against syracuse.  But keep in mind the Hokies hit 42% of their 3-pointers that game.  When the Hokies aren’t hot from deep, it spells big trouble.

How do we fix it?

• Pressure: The full court press gave up a few easy buckets against fsu, but overall it created more positives than negatives.  Plus, it forced fsu to play more up-tempo and tired them out, which led to fouls and more ability to drive.  I’m not saying 40 Minutes of Hell, I’m saying use the press selectively to get the action sped up.  That will help VT…
• Push the Ball: This isn’t a good half court team.  Never has been under Seth, regardless of the cast of characters.  Maybe Dowdell’s senior year, but that’s because he was so unstoppable.  Tech is better when the opponent cannot setup their defense.  This isn’t just off live ball turnovers, either, the Hokies need to push even after makes.  A quick inbounds, advance the ball with a pass, and look for opportunities to drive.  Fouls and/or easy buckets will ensue.  And again, it will tire opponents which will open up the ability to drive in the half court as their legs get weary.
• Lower the Expectations: Coming into this year I didn’t even want to think NCAAs.  We couldn’t make it the last few years with 2 of our greatest 10 players in VT history.  That shouldn’t have been the main goal this year.  The goal should be to improve.  Well, here we are 0-2.  Let’s see how we go from here.  Believe me, I don’t want a 4-12, but the NCAAs aren’t a strong possibility.  I think getting to 8-8 for the ACC regular season would be a solid accomplishment now and build momentum for next year.  But the simple fact is there’s a good chance VT will start 1-4 in conference.  Can the Hokies stay confident, playing hard, and battling after that?  That will go a long way to our future, and imply a solid improvement down the stretch.  Let’s hope it happens.

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