Spread: VT by 9-1/2 (here we do again!)

This is a case where I wish we could throw out the records as the 0-2 Hokies travel to Chestnut Hill to take on the 1-1 eagles Saturday at 3 PM.  Playing at bc has been a nightmare for the Hokies ever since they joined the Big East.  Tech is 1-9 all time at boston college, all occurring since 2001 when VT entered the Big East.

But, this is a new era of bc basketball.  I’ll say it loud and clear — VIRGINIA TECH WILL WIN THIS GAME.  I think it will be a blowout, but I’m not giving any points.  I am guaranteeing the win though.  Period.  And if Tech doesn’t win this game, I’ll wear a uva hat and shirt to the VT @ uva game on January 22nd.  (Not sure where I’ll get said items from, but I’m not too worried about having to pay up)

FYI: Here’s who is carrying the game Saturday:

• FOX Sports Carolinas (FS Carolinas) – covers the states of North Carolina and South Carolina
• FOX Sports South (FS South) – covers six states in the southeastern portion of the country: Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi and Kentucky
• SUN Sports (SUN) or FOX Sports Florida (FS Florida) – both cover the state of Florida
• Comcast SportsNet Mid-Atlantic (CSN Mid-Atlantic) – covers the states of Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia, and parts of Delaware, Pennsylvania and West Virginia
• New England Sports Network (NESN) – covers the New England states of Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine

THE opponent:

Note: I wrote this before I watched bc beat clemson 59-57 on Thursday night.  My learnings are in italics…

Why am I so confident even after those two turds the Hokies dumped in the last week?  Simple — boston college is the worst ACC team of all time.  That’s saying something because we must remember wake forest went 1-15 in the league last year (well, I guess the worst bc could do now is 1-15 now since they beat clemson).  wake’s Scoring Margin was -18.5, which includes their win over uva.  They lost 8 ACC games by 20+ points.  But I’m calling it now — the eagles are worse.  Here’s why:

• 10.7%: bc returned just 263 of their 2,440 points from a year ago.  And you thought we got hit hard!
• Of the 263 points returning, two of those guys were walk-ons, and another (Danny Rubin) has played just 4 total minutes in the last 7 games.
• bc starts 5 freshmen, and believe me, this ain’t the Fab 5.  This is El Cinco Stinko.  Four of them are 3-star recruits, which isn’t bad but also not great, and the other, Heckmann, is from Germany… and he ain’t Dirk Nowitzki.  They have 9 freshmen out of the 15 guys on their roster.  Their 3 seniors are all walk-ons and their only junior is a transfer. Much like wake forest a year ago, this experience will help them, but it’s gonna be a blood bath this year.  Lonnie Jackson looks like a decent player but he looks like the star of a JV squad.  Their transfer, Humphrey from oregon, looks decent, too.
• They have no one ranked in the top 25 in the ACC in scoring.
• bc has almost no inside presence — they are last in the ACC in Offensive Rebounding Percentage by far (24% when the next closest is 28%).  That ranks 338th (out of 344) in the NCAA.  They also are near the bottom in blocks, steals (they are 332nd in the nation in steals per game), and defensive rebounding %.  boston college had ONE offensive rebound against clemson.  1!  That’s pathetic.  But they shot 50% which compensated for that and 7-foot freshman Dennis Clifford had 15 points and 7 rebounds.  Considering Tech’s ‘success’ against other crappy bigs (minnesota, wake, fsu), that’s not a good sign.  bc loves to pick and roll with Clifford.  FYI: Clifford has more zits on his face than bc has returning points.
• They average less than 4,400 fans per game, so it will not be a hostile atmosphere.  I’d guess there were 2,000 there on Thursday.
• The eagles were 30 point underdogs at unc (though they did cover!… losing by 23).  They’ve lost to harvard at home by 20, 3-14 rhode island, to new mexico by 18, and to holy cross by 22.  They were 9 points dogs at home against clemson.  So they are now 2-0 vs the spread while VT is 0-2 (VT was favored in both games so far).
• Their RPI is 254 out of 344 teams.  Well, that will go up a tad, but keep in mind clemson was around 160, so they basically beat the next worst team in the ACC.
• I typed up this article with them at 0-2 before they even played their game against clemson.   Ugh, clearly my prediction skills wore off with the new year.

The eagles, like most teams with no inside talent, will chuck it from deep.  They make 7.5 3-pointers per game, the 3rd highest average in the ACC, but make less than 34% of them.  Their 334 3-point attempts is by far the most in the league.  Humphrey, a transfer from oregon, cranks out 6 per game, but makes less than 30%.  Their best shooter from deep is Jackson (not Reggie, he’s gone).  Lonnie Jackson has hit 28 of his 62 3-point attempts, a very solid 45% clip.

The only way the eagles have any chance in this game is to be hot from deep (bc was 8/18 from deep against clemson, accounting for 40% of their points), they play a 2-3 zone and Tech looks as inept as they did against wake’s (not getting the ball to the high post and not attacking the offensive glass), and pigs fly.  I’d have said “no way” a week ago, but after how wake and fsu shot against VT from deep, and how bad VT has looked against a 2-3 zone, I guess there is a chance bc can win.  But I’m not worried about locating uva gear just yet.

Yes, bc beat clemson, but keep in mind clemson is awful, too.  Yes, clemson just beat fsu by 20 at home.  I have NO IDEA how that happened.  clemson lost to 3 teams from their own state out of conference – so like I said, they stink.  Seriously, this is bizarro ACC.  I think everyone is just so bad, everyone is competitive.  How crazy is this ACC season?  8 of the 12 teams sit at 1-1.

THE SERIES:

• Overall: bc 13-7
• At bc All Time: bc 9-1 (one win was in OT in 2008)
• In ACC Play: bc 7-5 (3 in a row)
• At bc in ACC games: bc 5-1 (3 in a row)

Last Year:

• 03.02.11 @VT on Senior Night: bc 76, VT 61 - probably what knocked VT out of the NCAAs
• 02.05.11 @bc: bc 58, VT 56 - Delaney missed a key FT and Green missed a 3-pointer for the win

The two teams will play again @VT later this year (chalk up another Hokie win).

STARTERS:

STATS: (bc’s stats are from before their game with clemson on Thursday night)

BORING FACTS ABOUT boston college (“Strength, skill, character”):