Here’s a look at where teams are today, and how the seedings may shake out for the ACC Tournament:
- unc 11-2
- fsu 10-2 (has the tiebreaker on duke and unc but they play duke on Thursday)
- duke 10-2 (has tiebreaker on unc but they play again)
- uva 8-5 (has the tiebreaker on ncsu and miami)
- nc state 7-6 (has tiebreaker on miami, but they play again)
- miami 7-6
- maryland 6-7 (has tiebreaker on clemson)
- clemson 6-7
- VIRGINIA TECH 4-9 (has tiebreaker on clemson)
- wake forest 3-10 (has tiebreaker on VT and bc, but they play bc)
- bc 3-10
- ga tech 2-11 (has tiebreaker on bc but they play again)
- Chances at the #8 seed: Tech has a shot at the #8 seed. They have to win at clemson next week. Realistically, they’d have to win both games next week (clemson and nc state) and clemson would have to lose out. Not very likely.
- #9-11: wake forest, bc, and ga tech all play each other down the stretch, so it is very likely one of them could get 2 wins the rest of the way. If it is wake or bc (likely wake), that would put them at 5 wins and they’d have the tiebreaker on VT, meaning Tech would have to win at least 2 games to stay ahead. bc also would win a tiebreaker on VT unless the Hokies beat duke Saturday (bc beat fsu, which if you tie head-to-head, they go to best win against the rest of the league and that would be bc).
- #12: It is safe to say the Hokies won’t finish last. VT would have to lose out, and gt would have to win out. I won’t comment on the former, but the latter isn’t going to happen.
- Best Guess: I’d say it is 50/50 the Hokies drop to the #10 seed. I don’t see them getting to #8, or falling to 11 or 12. So I’d expect a first round matchup with either clemson or maryland, or possibly miami or nc state if they continue to fall.
#1: The duke @ florida state game on Thursday is HUGE. If the noles win it, they’ll have all the tiebreakers, having gone 3-0 against duke and unc. If duke wins, then the duke @ unc game will likely determine the regular season champ and #1 seed.
uva, the #4 seed, and a First Round bye: uva hasn’t made it to Semi-Final Saturday since 1995. They have a great shot this year. With nc state losing 3 straight and miami choking late against maryland, the hoos have a 1 game lead AND the tiebreaker on both since they defeated both. That means uva has to lose at least 2 games the rest of the way (they do play unc and fsu), and miami or nc state would probably have to win out. miami and nc state still play, so that will be an elimination game for the #4 seed. If uva gets the #4 seed, that means they just have to win one game to make the ACC Tournament Semi-Final Saturday. They were the #1 seed 5 years ago but lost to the #12 seed in the quarterfinals, nc state (who went on to beat VT in the Semis).