Categorized | 2012-13 Season

Wild Turkey Breakdown | The clemson Game and VT’s ACC Play to Date

I realized I was too negative after the uva game so I’m going to make a conscious effort to accentuate the positives Tech displays, and there were some real positives on Sunday…

THE GLASS HALF FULL:

  • Tech battled until the end.  It would have been easy to warm up the bus after falling behind 12-0 and not scoring for the first 6:38 of the game.  But VT stayed after it and hung in there on the road until the bitter end.  I was proud of our effort.
  • The Hokies committed just 5 turnovers on Sunday against a team that usually causes quite a few.  That’s a fantastic number, less than half of their season average.  And VT committed 14 turnovers against uva and had accumulated 11+ turnovers in 9 of their last 10 games, so it was good to see them clean that up.
  • Jarell Eddie tallied 19 points on 5/11 FGs and 2/5 on 3s.  He’s 6/14 on 3-pointers since the start of OT at georgia tech, a 43% clip and much more Eddie-like.
  • Erick Green continues to lead the nation in scoring.  That brings attention to the program and helps JJ sell us to recruits (as opposed to uva who has to sell guys on playing a hockey-penalty-kill style system).
  • Christian Beyer played a solid 16 minutes, with a +7 and 4 points and 4 rebounds.  Tech really has to feel they are 9 deep now with Wood back — 8 scholarship guys plus Beyer.  You can live with that.  Most teams don’t have more than 9 in their rotation.
  • Tech is through the ‘easy’ part of their ACC schedule.  Tech has played each of the other 5 teams in the bottom half of the ACC standings.  They’ve played just one team in the top 6 (uva, who is tied for 3rd).  8 of their next 11 are against teams in the top half of the league, plus they have to play maryland again who throttled VT in the ACC opener in that stretch.  That may not sound like good news, but look at it this way — Tech will be double digit underdogs in almost every game, as they were Sunday.  The Hokies have nothing to lose at this point.  No expectations.  They can play loose and free.  And if they lose by 16?  Big deal, they were supposed to.  While it isn’t the situation you want to be in, it can be liberating.  Hopefully the Hokies start to relax and just have fun again, and be aggressive.  Tech has some depth now and can push the tempo and pressure on defense, testing out JJ’s style.  What is there to lose.
  • Finally, at least we aren’t northern illinois.  They scored 5 in a half earlier this year, and scored a pathetic 4 yesterday in the first half.  They went 1/31 from the floor, missing their final 29 shots of the half.  They scored just 25 points in the game.

THE GLASS HALF EMPTY:

  • As I mentioned in the positives, the Hokies are just now getting to the tough part of their ACC schedule.  They have 12 games left and half of those are against the top 4 in the ACC (miami, nc state, duke, and uva).  They also have to play unc, fsu, and maryland again.  Expect Tech to be heavy underdogs in every game except gt at home, maybe clemson at home, and wake on the road.
  • I’d call 2-4 in the ACC a slight disappointment considering the Hokies just played the other five teams picked to finish at the bottom of the ACC, and three of those games were at home (Tech went 1-2 in those games).  But hey, they aren’t in last place, or even 11th, we are in 10th.  It could be worse.
  • Robert Brown is 1/18 on 3-pointers in ACC play and has missed 16 straight (he’s just 1/28 since georgia southern).  He’s also just 12/53 on FGs in ACC play (23%).

Slow Starts:

If you are faint of heart, don’t read this:

  • Tech has been shut out at the first media timeout two games in a row.
  • Against uva, didn’t score for the first 4 minutes and 30 seconds, and didn’t hit a FG until 6:15 was off the clock.
  • Today Tech didn’t score for the first 6:48, missing their first 10 shots.

Note this is not unique to JJ.  The Hokies regularly came out of the blocks ice cold under Greenberg.  Not sure what it is, but it is very real and continues to plague the Hokies.

Second Half Struggles:

Here’s a look at how much Tech has (led, been tied, trailed, trailed by 10+) in the 2nd half of ACC games.  Note that includes 120 minutes of action and does not include the OT vs georgia tech.

  • Led: 2 minutes and 28 seconds (i.e. 5:39)
  • Tied: 5:37
  • Trailed: 108:44
  • Trailed by 10+ points: 42:41
  • Trailed by 20+ points: 7:27

Tech has led in the second half of just 2 games – today vs clemson and against wake (VT never led in the 2nd half at georgia tech and were tied for just the final 24 seconds of regulation).  The Hokies’ biggest lead in the 2nd half of an ACC game is 2 points.  In fact, that’s their biggest 2nd half lead in their last 10 games (they also led bradley by 2 over a month ago along with wake and clemson).

The Hokies have trailed for almost 10-times the amount of time that they’ve led in the 2nd half, they’ve trailed by 10+ points for almost 4-times longer than they’ve led or been tied, and they’ve trailed by 20+ points for more time to date than they’ve led.  Not good.  It shows they’ve dug themselves into holes in the 1st half, as we noted above in the Slow Starts section.  It is tough playing up-hill all game.

Three Point Defense:

Seriously, how bad is Tech’s 3-point defense?  Check out these numbers since the start of the wvu game (this includes their average makes and 3-Point % to date, not the time of the game, so it includes them going off against the Hokies and shows how bad Tech’s 3-point defense is).

OPP Made 3s vs VT 3Pt % vs VT Avg Made 3s Per Game Season 3Pt %
wvu 10 42% 4.9 29%
mvsu 4 14% 5.1 27%
ga south 11 42% 5.9 37%
bradley 8 35% 4.4 29%
co state 11 46% 5.2 35%
byu 7 37% 6.2 33%
maryland 10 44% 5.7 33%
bc 8 36% 7.3 34%
ga tech 8 33% 5.5 31%
wake 7 37% 5.2 36%
uva 11 48% 5.7 39%
clemson 10 48% 5.1 32%

[ACC games in italics]

As you can see, every ACC opponent has shot a higher 3-point percentage and made more 3s against VT than their season averages.  In Tech’s four ACC losses, the opponent has been well above their average 3s made (39 made compared to 23.9) and the percentages were well above average except against bc, who was pretty much on par.

The Hokies tried to go zone Sunday and it backfired – clemson, who shot 32% from deep coming in and made just 5.1 per game, hit 10/21 and K.J. McDaniels, a 31% shooter from deep, when 5/7.  Unreal.  Game after game someone torches Tech from deep.

Through 6 ACC games on 3-pointers:

  • VT: 28/93 (30%) — 11th in the ACC
  • opponents: 54/132 (41%) — Last in the ACC

Dunk You Very Little:

  • Tech’s been out-dunked 19-10 in ACC play

FINAL THOUGHT:

I like JJ.  I really hope he succeeds.  But I stand by my comments Thursday night (or more like Friday morning) that said this was a bad hire.  That’s not his fault, that’s our administration’s fault for going bargain basement.  You can’t learn on the job in the ACC.  I think JJ will have a tough time here given the situation, and given that he is having to figure out how to balance recruiting, game prep, lineups, in-game adjustments, dealing with the media, etc.  I think it will be tough for him to last here more than a few seasons given the situation.  Maybe we’ll turn it around either this year or in the next few, but you just can’t hire a guy with no track record to judge them on, in my opinion.  Again, not his fault, of course he took the job (as I would if offered it), this is on our A.D.

I do think he’s a good man and will be successful, but if I was to guess, I would say the results won’t come until his next head coaching gig when he gets to apply what he’s learned.  Or maybe he’ll turn into the next John Calipari… although even Coach Cal started at a mid-major.

This post was written by:

- who has written 1245 posts on Tech Hoops.

Niemo is a member of the VT Class of '98. While not a professional journalist by any stretch, Niemo analyzes and breaks down every minute of Hokie hoop action. He also researches topics of interest such as Hokie recruits, program revenue, statistical data on the team, previews VT opponents, and discusses his favorite bourbons/Scotches. In addition to his passion for Hokie hoops, Niemo has attended 126 straight VT football home games (every game since '94), eclipsing the 100 mark in September of '09 and recently attended his 20th consecutive VT/uva game. During the final home basketball game of his senior year, he was brought onto the court and was awarded 2 passes to the Atlantic 10 Basketball Tournament in Philly during a timeout for being a "Super Fan" during his time at VT. The Hokie Bird made the award on behalf of Athletic Director Jim Weaver. Niemo was known to be in the front row of every home game with his familiar red afro hairdo.

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  • http://twitter.com/hokieguru Matthew

    In the last 8 games, VT’s opponents have made 41% of their 3-point attempts.

  • http://twitter.com/hokieguru Matthew

    And I guess my stat below included BYU and Colorado State – I should have said that :) I’m going to link to a few of your articles today in our ACC Power Poll at AllSportsDiscussion.com

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2014-2015 Schedule/Results

November

11/14 - Hokies 71, md. eastern shore 46
11/19 - Hokies 73, liberty 63
11/22 - appalachian state 65, Hokies 63
**********
Cancun Classic
11/25 - n. iowa 73, Hokies 54
11/26 - Hokies 78, miami ohio 63
**********
11/30 - morgan state | 3pm, ESPN3

December

12/03 - @ penn state | 7:15pm, ESPNU
12/07 - vs. radford | 3pm, ESPN3
12/14 - vs. alabama a&m | 3pm, ESPN3
12/20 - vs. the citadel | 1pm, ESPN3
12/22 - vs. vmi | 7pm, ESPN3
12/27 - vs. presbyterian | 7pm, ESPN3
12/30 - @ west virginia | 2pm, ESPNU

January

01/03 - vs. syracuse | Noon, RSN
01/06 - @ fsu | 7pm, RSN
01/13 - @ louisville | 7pm, RSN
01/18 - @ unc | 6:30pm, ESPNU
01/22 - vs. notre dame | 7pm, RSN
01/25 - vs. uva | 1pm, ACCN
01/27 - vs. pittsburgh | 7pm, ESPNU
01/31 - @ wake forest | 2pm, RSN

February

02/03 - @ syracuse | 9pm, ESPNU
02/07 - vs. fsu | 3pm, ACCN
02/09 - vs. georgia tech | 9pm, ESPNU
02/14 - @ clemson | Noon, RSN
02/18 - @ miami | 7pm, RSN
02/21 - @ nc state | 6pm, ESPN2
02/25 - vs. duke | 9pm, ESPN2
02/28 - @ uva | 4pm, ACCN

March

03/02 - vs. boston college | 9pm, ESPNU
03/07 - vs. miami | Noon, RSN
**********
ACC Tournament
03/10 - 1st rd.
03/11 - 2nd rd.
03/12 - quarterfinals
03/13 - semifinals
03/14 - championship

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