Spread: duke by 4.5 (seriously, Vegas seems to have a lofty opinion of us… yet we are 1-6 against the spread in 2012).

It’s two previews for the price of one!  Double your pleasure!  (“Normally you pay extra for that, Cotton.” – Dodgeball)  Since the Hokies play two full games in less than 48 hours, I figured kill two previews with one post.  Each year each ACC team plays a back-to-back in approximately 48 hours (the Short Turnaround Sequence, as I call it).  This year, the Hokies have to do it twice (again in mid-February).  Yep, our schedule keeps getting better and better (sarcasm).  At least both of these games are at home.  In fact, Saturdays game against clemson is Virginia Tech’s first weekend ACC home game.  That’s right, we didn’t get a weekend home game until February (see my note above about our schedule).

The Hokies have actually been dominant in the back end of their ACC Short Turnarounds.  While Tech is just 3-4 in the first game (3 of which have been against duke), VT is 6-1 in the second game of a Short Turnaround.  Keep in mind their opponent usually doesn’t have the same turnaround.  That tells you the Hokies have been able to quickly recover and focus on the back end.  I also think the short turnaround boosts your shooting — you tend to get into the flow of the game more quickly since you played so recently.

So what does this all mean?  I’m not predicting anything in the duke game, but I fully expect to see the Hokies beat clemson on Saturday and push their record to 7-1 in these ‘doubleheaders’, so to speak.  Oh, by the way, Hokie Guru has GUARANTEED A WIN OVER duke!  No, he hasn’t promised to wear pink uva stuff if we lose.   And no, he hasn’t gone crazy (at least any more so than usual — just messin’ with ya).

While I will not guarantee a win, this duke team is beatable… and yes, by the Hokies.  They are mostly roll players, not stars.  Granted, they are very good roll players, some of which are McDonald’s All-Americans, but they are simply not as talented as in past years.  Yes, they are #5 in the country, but ohio state blew them out by 22 at osu, and temple won by 5 over the blue devils at temple.  duke struggled at clemson, although they did pull away at maryland late in the game last week.  Still, we all know the Hokies can take down a highly ranked duke team in the Cassell, we’ve done it twice:

• 2/26/11 – VT 64, #1 duke 60 – HIGHLIGHTS
• 2/17/05 – VT 67, #7 duke 65 (maybe my favorite win of all time after losing by 35 at duke a month earlier)

The question is, can the Hokies slow down the duke attack and keep pace with them on the scoreboard?  We shall see.  To beat a dead horse, the key is getting off to a decent start.  Since the Hokies will no doubt be juiced playing the #5 blue devils, we might see the level of energy we’d like to have seen all year, and that could help at the get-go.

clemson simply isn’t that good.  Yes, they are 3-3 and we are 1-5, but I’m telling you, they aren’t that good (yes, I realize neither are we… but we are at home and we are NOT falling to 1-7).  c-l-e-m-s-ohhhhh-n is just 11-9 on the season overall.  They also lost by 2 at bc, so they have the same black eye VT does.  They have lost 3 games to teams from south carolina — the gamecocks, of course, but also college of charleston and coastal carolina (the latter two were at home).  They also lost to utep and hawaii.  In the ACC, two of their wins are over wake and georgia tech, both at home against ACC bottom-feeders.  The one good win they have is a 20-point win over fsu in their ACC opener.  Yep, you read that right, they blew out fsu by 20.  And it wasn’t even that close — it was 32-10 with 6 minutes to go in the first half… but that was apparently before the noles figured things out.

Update: I watched clemson lose to uva by 4 on Tuesday night, and I’ve seen them play several times this year now.  They just don’t impress me offensively.  They don’t have good jumpshooters other than Smith.  Young shoots for a decent percentage but he’s so short he has to be wide open.  The game itself was very similar to the VT @ uva game — clemson led by 4 at the half just like the Hokies, only scored 10 points in the first 10 minutes of the 2nd half just like the Hokies, but couldn’t contain Mike Scott or Joe Harris like VT did.  The tigers battled back but still lost.  But they can pressure the ball out by half court and that could give the Hokies fits (especially Rankin).  clemson gets 3 days of rest before  facing VT.

Did you know… VT was favored on Saturday at maryland?  In fact, Tech has been favored in every game but the unc and uva games this year.

THE SERIES:

vs duke -

• All Time: duke 37-8
• At VT: duke 8-6
• In ACC Play: duke 8-3
• At VT in ACC Play: duke 3-2
• Last Year: VT won at VT, duke won in the ACC Tournament Semi-Finals

vs c-l-e-m-s-ohhh-n -

• All Time: VT 12-11
• At VT: VT 7-5
• In ACC Play: clemson 6-4
• At VT in ACC Play: clemson 3-2
• VT’s first ACC win game on 1/15/05 against clemson at the Cassell (59-57)
• Last Year: clemson won 69-60 at clemson in the ACC regular season finale, locking up the #4 seed for clemson and dropping VT to the #6 seed.

STARTERS:

*6’9″ Milton Jennings had started up until the uva game Tuesday.  He has been suspended for academic reasons and is doubtful for Saturday.  He was averaging 8.9 ppg and was good in transition, though he’s a lousy shot like most of the tigers.

My quick breakdown of the teams:

duke:

• Rivers is no Irving.  The son of Doc is a good slasher and a solid 3-point shooter (38%), but he can’t pick you apart like Irving could and isn’t as good of a passer.  He averages more turnovers than assists.  He’s averaged less than 8 ppg in 3 ACC road games.
• Kelly isn’t as soft as in past years.  Still, he’s a 6’11″ guy that can burn you from the outside.  But he’s getting to the line a lot more this year than in past years.  He can kill you with the shot-fake, and drive to the hoop.  And he is a solid rebounder on the offensive end, using his height (and ACC officials have NOT been calling over the back this year).
• Mason Plumlee is a beast inside.  But he is AWFUL from the foul line.  He makes Shaq look like Reggie Miller.  He went 2/11 from the line in one game, and 2/10 in another.  He hits 62% from the field and 48% from the line… so foul him (“Thumb a Plum”???)
• Curry likely wants to avenge the goose egg he posted in Blacksburg last year with his father, VT legend Dell Curry watching.  He did have 10 against the Hokies in the ACC Tourney, but can he step up in the arena where his dad’s jersey hangs?
• Dawkins is a lot like Moseley was for maryland.
• Bench: Miles Plumlee, Thornton, Cook, and Hairston provide minutes off the bench, but none of them are spectacular.  Thornton is good defensively and can drill 3-pointers when open, Miles is soft, Cook is learning how to play in the ACC, and Hairston just provides depth inside.

clemson:

• Milton Jennings, the former 5-star recruit and current huge bust, has been suspended for academic reasons.  Don’t expect him to play Saturday.  He missed the uva game.
• Young is what you expect/want from a 5-9 guy – loves to bomb treys (36%, 45 makes) and can really drive and dish (he has an almost 3-to-1 assist to turnover ratio… that’s awesome).
• Smith is a solid outside shooter who has really developed his mid-range game.
• Booker is no Booker… as in even though Devin’s improved over the years, he just even close to the talent Trevor (with the Wizards, I believe) is/was.
• Narcisse is JT Thompson without the talent.  High energy, and that’s it.
• Hall and Sapp are freshmen guards in the ACC, which means lots of mistakes and learning on the job.
• Yes, they do have a 7-footer like every other VT opponent (he’s actually 7’2″).  Catalin Baciu averages 4 points and 2 rebounds in 10 minutes… oh, and he isn’t much of a shot-blocker.
• clemson has a veteran lineup but they simply aren’t that talented.  They have the type of veterans where you hope your stud recruits take over for them… but the tigers don’t really have any big recruits in the last few classes.  Their only 4-star from the past 2 years is freshman Bernard Sullivan, who averages 1.3 ppg.  Jennings was a 5-star and Booker a 4-star, both of which appear to be a joke (especially with Jennings).  This is a team that way overachieved last year and is coming back to reality this year.

STATS:

Note: these stats are for ACC games ONLY.

The ACC quit showing a lot of the stats they used to show, so that’s why this is a bit leaner than in the past.  Not sure why they changed it mid-season.

MY THOUGHTS ON duke:

Take the biggest nerd from your school, then from 4,999 other schools, and you have duke.  I’m still waiting for Fox to produce a reality show where they take a florida state frat and move them to duke for a semester and let them run wild.  Those nerds wouldn’t leave their dorm rooms for three months.

MY THOUGHTS ON clemson:

They beat us in the ACC Championship Game in football back in December.  They beat us in our ACC regular season finale last basketball season, effectively driving a stake into our NCAA Tournament hearts.  I saw it is time to exact some revenge.  Who’s with me?!

Popularity: 11% [?]

The Hokies head to the Communist Center on Saturday to take on the maryland terrapins.  This marks the fourth straight weekend Tech has been on the road to open ACC play (total BS… that would never happen to unc or duke).  We’ll see if the Hokies can build off of their road win Sunday at uva and get the ball rolling as they close out the season with 11 straight ACC games.  And the Hokies are getting the terps at the right time — Wednesday night maryland lost to their big rival, duke (as if duke cares about them), while naming the court for former coach Gary Williams.  They had a packed house and shot their wad.  They will not have a packed house, or that level of energy, on Saturday after dropping their third straight game.

But there’s no reason to fear these turtles, their talent has dropped off quite a bit.  That said, the Hokies cannot take anyone for granted, and maryland has exceeded my expectations, largely due to new Head Coach Mark Turgeon.  Turgeon is really solid — he was 20+ games all four years he was at texas a&m before this, and won 20+ three of the final four years he was at wichita state before that.  He led the aggies to the NCAA Tournament all four years in College Station.

maryland is led by sophomore guard Terell Stoglin, the ACC’s leading scorer at 20.9 ppg.  And there’s been no drop-off for him in ACC play, he’s averaging 20.4 ppg in their five ACC tilts.  Stoglin shredded the Tech defense in the meeting in Blacksburg last year, scoring 25 points on 7/12 FGs and 10/10 FTs.  He regularly blew by the Hokie defense who either had to grab and foul him, or let him go for layups.  Stoglin is more versatile this year, becoming a deadly 3-point shooter.  He’s shooting 40% from deep with 2.5 makes per game (2nd best in the ACC).

The terps recently added Alex Len, the 7’1″ Ukraine train.  He had to wait until the end of the semester to play but has averaged over 7 ppg since.  He missed the temple game and only played 12 minutes against duke on Wednesday, so we’ll see how hard and long he can go.  We all know how 7-footers give the Hokies fits, so this will be key.  Len is good in the post and has a solid midrange game.  He’ll drift out and shoot from midrange at times.  He’s hitting 62% of his FGs, so you know he’s got a nice stroke and has good post moves.

Other than that, the terps have no one else that concerns me.  Sean Mosley is a veteran who averages 10 ppg and 5 rpg, but doesn’t scare you.  He can be invisible for entire games.  He has improved his 3-point shooting and hits 42%, but doesn’t attempt a ton.

James Padgett would be a role player if they had more depth inside, but instead is forced to play a lot.  He averages 9 ppg and 6 rpg.

Pe’Shon Howard reminds me of a Terrell Bell — he’s out there for his defense.  But while Bell became a decent outside shooter, Howard hits just 24% from deep.

Nick Faust was their top recruit, but dude is struggling (I know we feel their pain).  He’s shooting just 32% from the field, 54% from the line, and 20% from behind the arc.

With all that, I’d say Turgeon has squeezed every drop from these guys to get to 12-7.  They are a middle of the pack ACC team at best, and Turgeon has them playing well.

For the Hokies, let’s hope Erick Green continues his dominance of the terps.  EG dropped 24 points on 12/16 shooting at maryland last year (he’s sort of from the area so no doubt gets hyped with the extra family and friends).  That helped EG snag ACC Player of the Week.  Green followed that act with 20 points in the game in Blacksburg.

Dorenzo Hudson has scored 42 points off the bench in three games, and he’ll need to give a similar spark Saturday.  It did not work well when Zo had to play the point Wednesday with Rankin out and Green in foul trouble, so let’s hope Marquis is back to spell Green at times and allow Hudson to work off the ball.

The big key is can Dorian Finney-Smith get going.  While he’s still working very hard, diving for loose balls as he did at the end of the uva game and getting steals as he did against byu, it seems like the other team has a power play when he’s on the offensive end.  Since the start of 2012, Doe Doe has made a field goal in just ONE game.  He was 4/9 against florida state, but 0/19 in the other 5 games.  He’s tallied just 11 points this calendar year.  The Hokies have to find a way to get him going.  The problem has been he hasn’t been able to get the offensive rebounds and put-backs he was getting earlier in the year against smaller post players, and he really only has one move to the basket… drive with his right hand straight at the baseline, get forced deep, and have to huck it to the left corner while falling out of bounds.  And his 3-point shot has disappeared.  We know he can do it, it is just about getting confidence.

Another key freshman, Robert Brown, is also hitting the wall it seems.  In 2012, he’s hit just 14/45 FGs (31%), 5/23 3s (22%), and most disappointing, he’s just 4/9 from the free throw line.

The great sign of late has been Jarell Eddie.  JE has 20 points and 24 rebounds in the last two games, including his first career double-double against byu (12/14).

HO-KEYS TO WINNING:

• Suck the air out: Like I said, Wednesday was an emotional game for maryland, this won’t be.  If the Hokies can get up early like they did last year, they’ll take the crowd out of it… I’ll believe it when I see it as Tech has really struggled in the first half in every game this year on offense except for the unc game.
• Stifle Stoglin: Stoglin is the only guy you really fear.  If Rankin is back, he can give you a few minutes on him.  But it is going to largely be up to Green, Brown, and Hudson to get out on him on the perimeter, and the other defenders to rotate and help.  He’s their scariest player so do what you can to limit him.
• Push it real good: maryland is not a good defensive team.  They can be beaten in transition and they get lost on picks.  If Tech actually runs some picks, they will have guys open on backdoors or pick and rolls.  But we’ll see if VT does this, or just passes around the perimeter.  The Hokies also need to drive at the tin early.  They get teams in foul trouble and get to the line when they are aggressive.  Don’t settle for 3s.

THE SERIES:

• All Time: maryland 27-10
• At maryland: md 16-4
• In ACC Play: VT 6-4
• At maryland in ACC Play: maryland 3-2

VT swept the twerps last year:

• 2.16.11 @ VT: VT 91, md 83 (Recap)  |  Highlights
• 1.21.11 @md: VT 74, md 57 (Recap)  |  Highlights

STARTERS:

*Alex Len will start if he’s healthy.  He missed the temple game and only played 12 minutes against duke while working back from an ankle injury.  Len would start over Pankey if that’s the case.

maryland, like VT, has a highly touted freshman who is struggling.  Nick Faust is averaging 7.2 ppg, but hitting just 32% of his FGs, 20% of his 3s, and 54% of his FTs.

STATS:

Note: these stats are for ACC games ONLY (5 for both teams).

What these stats tell me is maryland is awful at transition defense.  Teams shoot low 3-point % against them, but a very high percentage inside the arc.  That has to mean transition points, and poor post defense.  They also don’t have many steals which means they aren’t taking away what you want to do in the half court (not sure what that is for VT).

Neither team is very strong at rebounding, and if Len doesn’t play big minutes the terps don’t have a height advantage on VT.

Popularity: 10% [?]

Spread: VT by 2.

The Hokies go on a cougar hunt Wednesday night in the Cassell, hoping to knock off the byu cougars in Tech’s final out of conference game of the regular season.  Tech is 11-3 away from the ACC, and had won six in a row to close out 2011.

byu is coming off a 32-5 season that saw them make the Sweet 16, losing to florida in overtime.  But All-American Jimmer Fredette, who was open from the time he walked in the arena, is gone, averaging 7.6 ppg for Sacramento in the NBA.  Their second leading scorer, Jackson Emery, is also gone.

This year 6’8″ senior Noah Hartsock has really stepped up his game, up from 8.5 ppg last year to 17.5 this year.  He’s shooting 58% from the field and can tear it up down low, or with a nice midrange shot.  Brandon Davies (their third leading scorer last year), Matt Carlino (their PG and leading assist man this year), and Charles Abouo all average between 11.5 and 14.1 ppg.  The final starter, wing Brock Zlystra, averages 9.0.  They score a lot and will push the ball, averaging 80 ppg.  But they don’t get much off their bench, especially with Stephen Rogers battling injuries.  They also shoot a lot of 3-pointers, averaging 7.4 makes per game.  They have eight players that average more than one 3-point attempt per game (VT has just five with more than nine attempts).  Let’s hope they come out uva-cold from deep.

byu, as always, has good size (see below for more on that).  The Hokies will have to battle on the boards.  Tech’s allowed 32 offensive rebounds in their last two games while grabbing just 15 themselves.  byu has not been a great offensive rebounding team this year, despite their size.  But they are in the top 10 in the nation at defensive rebounding, so the Hokies have their work cut out for them trying to get second chances.

Neither team has a big time win this season.  Both teams are 0-for against top 50 RPI teams* (VT is 0-5, byu is 0-3).  But both teams are undefeated against teams ranked 51-100.  (VT 3-0, byu 4-0).  Well, guess what – both teams are ranked between 51-100 (VT at 68, byu at 56).  So something has gotta give there.

*VT’s win over uva knocked the hoos out of the top 50 in the RPI.

SERIES: First ever meeting

STARTERS:

The cougars always have great size… think about it, who are they competing with?  For members of the LDS Church, the answer is no one.  So they get the best and biggest Mormon players in the land and world.

STATS:

BORING FACTS ABOUT brigham young:

Popularity: 15% [?]

Spread: uva by 7.5

Who can play the role of spoiler this year? WE CAN! uva swept the Hokies last year, effectively knocking the Hokies out of the Big Dance. Well, revenge is a dish best served cold, and the forecast calls for pretty cold weather on Sunday. We are 0-4… boo who. Let’s kick their butts!

My how the tide has turned. Over the last four years, the Hokies have finished fourth or tied for fourth in three of those years. uva, meanwhile, has been in the bottom half of the league each of the last four seasons. But now Tech sits at 0-4, and the hoos are ranked and well on their way to a first round bye.

uva is led by Mike Scott. Yep, the same Mike Scott that has been around since the dawn of time…

• Mike Scott’s so old, he had a class with Thomas Jefferson
• Mike Scott’s so old, he babysat Doe Doe
• Mike Scott’s so old, his birth certificate is in Roman numerals
• Mike Scott’s so old, he can remember the last time uva made the ACC Tournament Semi-Finals (1995)
• Mike Scott’s so old, over 100 current, active NBA players are younger than him (that’s an actual fact)

All kidding aside, Mike Scott is probably the MVP of the ACC this year. He may not be the best player in the league, but he means the most to his team. He’s averaging 16.9 ppg and 8.9 rebounds per game, both top 5 in the ACC. Oh, and have I mentioned he owns the Hokies?

Mike Scott has 100 career points and 52 career rebounds against VT in 7 previous appearances. He’s scored at least 20 in the last 3 meetings and snagged over 30 total rebounds.

Is it all bad for the Hokies? Well, Assane Sene, uva’s 7-footer (yep, every team except for VT has a serviceable 7-footer) rolled his ankle at the end of the 1st half against georgia tech and, based on what I saw, won’t play Sunday (not confirmed).

If you are wondering about uva’s playing style, my buddy said it best… “You’ll want to walk down on the court, over to their bench, and punch Tony Bennett (their head coach) in the face.” And he went to wazzu, (aka: washington state), the last place he coached at.

If Bennett’s style was an animal, it would be a python. Like his dad, they love to milk the clock and keep everything in the half court. They won’t attack the offensive glass with more than a couple of guys, falling back and forcing you to beat their man defense in the half court. That said, Scott is so talented they’ll still get offensive rebounds. And uva is one of the top teams in the nation at Defensive Rebounding, while VT is the worst team in the ACC in that stat (largely thanks to unc’s 19 offensive rebounds in 36 opportunities Thursday).

They really only have 2 1/2 guys that scare you on offense, with everyone else focused on defense.

PG Jontel Evans can’t shoot, but runs the O and is great on D. Sene is their force inside with no post moves what-so-ever. Meanwhile, Scott is extremely talented, both with his back to the basket in the low post and he can go out and hit midrange jumpers. Joe Harris can shoot the lights out (as he did against Tech last year). He’s a tough match-up because of his height (6’6″). 50% of his shots are 3s, but he also shoots over 50% inside the arc. But you worry more about him on the perimeter. And Sammy Zeglinski is dangerous from 3-point range (he also won’t buy Callahan Auto Parts!).

FYI: Yes, I plan to man-up on my personal bet — I guaranteed a win against bc or I’d wear uva stuff to this game… stay tuned.

THE SERIES:

• All Time: uva 81-52
• At uva: uva 32-12 (but VT has won 2 of the last 4 after a 40 year drought)
• In ACC Play: uva 8-7
• At uva in ACC Play: uva 5-2

STARTERS:

*Sene rolled his ankle against ga tech and did not return. If he’s out, Akil Mitchell (6’8″, Sophomore, 3.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg) will likely start.

uva does not have much depth due to transfers so this could be a big issue for them.

STATS:

Note: these stats are for ACC games ONLY (4 for VT, 3 for uva). uva’s defense is allowing the 2nd fewest points per game in the nation (not good news with our inept offense).

Popularity: 19% [?]

Spread: unc by 6.5

The #8 by-golly unc tar heels stomp into Blacksburg Thursday night, angrier than an old man sending back soup at a deli after being trounced by 33 points at the hands of florida state on Saturday.  But you know what?  There should be some fire in the belly of the Hokies, too, who have now lost 3 games in a row to open the ACC slate.  The Hokies took down the tar holes just 9 weeks ago in Blackburg in football on a Thursday night, so why not make that a tradition?

Normally I focus a lot on the opponent in these previews, but this time I’m going to put the spotlight on us more than usual.  I mean, summarizing the heels is pretty easy:

• They probably have the 2nd most talent in the country behind syracuse.
• Harrison Barnes (SF) is the best player in the ACC and will be a top 5 pick in this NBA Draft.
• John “Beanpole” Henson (PF) leads the ACC in rebounding and blocks, is 7th in points, and is another projected Lottery Pick this year.
• Kendall Marshall (PG) leads the ACC in assists (by far — 3 more than #2), sits 2nd nationally in assists, and could be picked in the mid-teens in this NBA Draft.
• Tyler Zeller (C) is also projected as a First Round Draft Pick this year.  He sits at #4 in the league in rebounding, 8th in blocks, and 10th in blocks.
• They have two freshmen that were McDonald’s All-Americans (P.J. Hairston and James Michael McAdoo (VA)) coming off the bench.
• As I said, they are going to probably be very hostile and motivated after the whipping they took by the seminoles.  The best chance at beating the heels is when they are soft and unfocused… I don’t think that will be the case Thursday.

But like I said, enough about them.  Let’s look in the mirror a bit critically.

WHY WE ARE 0-3:

If you haven’t figured this out, I’m a stat guy.   Maybe some day I’ll become the Billy Beane of basketball and they’ll make a movie about me where Matthew McConaughey plays me (he wishes).  To me, the numbers tell it all.  Let’s look side-by-side at where VT ranked in comparison to the rest of the ACC at the end of the out of conference schedule (so through the 2nd okie state game), and where VT ranks against their ACC brethren in ACC games ONLY (so a small sample size, but you’ll see what I’m getting at).

STATS:

A few things stand out:

• The Bad:
• 3-Pt% Defense (-13%): We were #1 in the nation in 3-Point % Defense for most of December.  We are DEAD LAST in the ACC in this stat through 3 games.  What that starts to tell me is maybe it was our level of competition pre-ACC, and that we aren’t flashing out on shooters as well.
• FG% (-10%): Tech is DEAD LAST in FG%.  And keep in mind, while VT played an awesome fsu defense, wake and bc were near the bottom of the league heading into ACC play.  This stat scares me.  The lack of offense is, has been (for years), (and will be?) a concern.  But to fall that drastically?!
• Robert Brown may be hitting a wall (or is adjusting to the talent in the ACC).  He is just 4/14 from the field in ACC play, and started 1/7 from deep before hitting 2 late 3-pointers Saturday.
• Doe Doe also is really struggling.  He’s put up 2 goose eggs in 3 ACC games, and is just 6/25 with 17 total points in Tech’s last 5 games.
• 3-Pt Offense (-13% and -2.4 makes per game): Most of the ACC has seen their 3-point percentages drop, but Tech’s has been really bad.  They are hitting just 25% from deep, and with their stagnant offense and poor transition game, this has really exposed their offensive struggles.  Eddie is 6/14 on 3s in ACC play, but is just 4/15 from the field in the last 2 games.  The Hokies really needed him to step up Saturday, and he didn’t have a made FG until the final 10 seconds when he nailed 2 meaningless 3-pointers.
• PPG (-13.5): See above.
• The Good?
• FTs: Still #1 in the ACC!  This has been a real bright spot on O… when the Hokies are aggressive and attack the rim.
• TO Margin (+5.5 and #1 in the ACC!): Wow, imagine being the best in the league at getting more turnovers than your opponent and still going 0-3.  Wait, we are 0-3.  That shows how bad our offense has been — we are getting 5 more possessions per game than our opponents (and 2 really bad ones) and still cannot beat them.

STARTERS:

* We’ll see if Erick Green is able to return from his knee injury that cost him the bc game and play.  Otherwise, this could get real ugly.  But Erick has been practicing some this week and is expected to play.

^ This is not your typical unc team.  They really only go 3 deep on their bench.  Bullock and Hairston are 2 very tall guards that can also move to the ’3′.  McAdoo is really unc’s only backup post player that plays any significant minutes off the bench.  unc will go small at times and play 3 guards (though with their height it isn’t an issue), and a mix of Barnes, Henson, Zeller, and McAdoo at the post spots.

THE SERIES:

• All Time: unc 61-13
• At VT: unc 18-6
• In ACC Play: unc 8-3
• At VT in ACC Play: unc 3-2 (but VT has won 2 of the last 3!)
• Last Year: (1/13/11 at unc) unc 64, VT 61 – VT blows a 16-point 1st half lead

HO-KEYS TO WINNING (yeah, I said it, winning!):

• Street Fight: unc does not like physical games.  They are finesse at its best.  Tech must have a lotta bit of Jeff Allen in them Thursday.  Maybe save a ball and aim a bit high?  Maybe watch footage of Christian Laettner walking up court?  Nah, I can’t endorse dirty play.  But let’s make sure they have an imprint of all our tattoos on them by the end of the game.
• Pretend they are #1: Hey, unc could easily be #1 in the land.  And they may be by the end of the year.  Heck, they started #1.  The Hokies love that underdog role, especially against #1.  Well, being the favored team didn’t work (VT was favored in all 3 ACC losses).  So let’s see if Seth can once again tap into his inner-underdog and inspire the boys.
• Transition: The heels love to run and have a lot of great athletes that can finish on the break.  Tech must get back and force them to play in the half court.  Yes, they are really talented in the half court, too, but we’ll take our chances there.  unc isn’t a great, or even good, 3-point shooting team so if the Hokies can avoid giving up layups, it gives VT a chance.  Meanwhile, the Hokies must share the ball on the break and find some easy buckets.  The heels don’t enjoy having to work on defense, so they can be exploited.
• Get the Whistles: unc has a LOT of size.  Yep, and another 7-footer (seems like every team but VT has one).  We need this game called close, especially over-the-backs (like the ones the officials missed in the fsu game on Eddie).  Plus, this unc team doesn’t have much depth.  Strange to say VT can go as deep as the heels.  My fear is Tech won’t be aggressive, or when they are, the ball will get swatted away with no fouls.
• Monsters of the Glass: unc is #1 in the ACC at Offensive Rebounding %, collecting 40% of their misses.  The Hokies must block out and limit second chance opportunities… part of that will be getting the whistles.  Let’s hope Raines can stay out of foul trouble.
• Shoot for a Higher 3-Pt %!  Hey, 19 times in a row is more than a trend.  The team that shot for a higher 3-point percentage has won Tech’s last 19 ACC games.  The good news is, while VT is hitting just 25% from deep in ACC play, unc is dead last in the league at 20%.  Plus, with unc’s size, the Hokies need to stretch the unc D.
• Bonus: Support: This game may not be a sellout (wow).  But I still expect the Hokie fans there, which may only be 67% of the crowd there (at best), will be fired up.  And the students will be back.  Early support could help the Hokies, who have crapped the bed to start the previous 3 games.

BORING FACTS ABOUT unc:

• Founded in 1789
• Undergrads: 18k
• Postgrads: 8k
• Stayed open during the Civil War
• The Hokies own Franklin Street during football season!
• Mascot is a live ram named “Rameses”
• 37 NCAA Championships in six different team sports (20 are women’s soccer… yawn)
• 5 Men’s bball titles: 1957, 1982, 1993, 2005, 2009
• 42 NCAA Tourney appearances
• 18 Final Fours
• 17 ACC Tournament titles
• unc has not won an ACC football title (or division, or even tied for a title) since 1980.  Neither NC public school has won a title or tied for one since then.  Tobacco Road may know basketball, but the supposed home of great BBQ sure stinks at pigskin

Famous students:

• Bball: Michael Jordan, Vince Carter, Awtawn Jamison, Rasheed Wallace, Jerry Stackhouse, James Worthy, Larry Brown, Tyler Hansbrough, Ronald Curry
• Other Sports: Lawrence Taylor (guessing he didn’t graduate), Dre Bly, Ronald Curry again (did you know he was the #1 football and bball recruit back in the late ’90s at Hampton HS?  Check out his stats/their margins of victory some time – insane), Moonlight Graham, Mia Hamm, Julius Peppers, Marion Jones, B.J. Surhoff
• Jim Halpert (character on the Office) supposedly went there – not the real one, the real person went to brown
• Others: John Edwards, James K. Polk (11th President of the USA), Stuart Scott, Chris Matthews, Andy Griffith, Lewis Black, and Thomas Wolfe

Popularity: 19% [?]

Spread: VT by 9-1/2 (here we do again!)

This is a case where I wish we could throw out the records as the 0-2 Hokies travel to Chestnut Hill to take on the 1-1 eagles Saturday at 3 PM.  Playing at bc has been a nightmare for the Hokies ever since they joined the Big East.  Tech is 1-9 all time at boston college, all occurring since 2001 when VT entered the Big East.

But, this is a new era of bc basketball.  I’ll say it loud and clear — VIRGINIA TECH WILL WIN THIS GAME.  I think it will be a blowout, but I’m not giving any points.  I am guaranteeing the win though.  Period.  And if Tech doesn’t win this game, I’ll wear a uva hat and shirt to the VT @ uva game on January 22nd.  (Not sure where I’ll get said items from, but I’m not too worried about having to pay up)

FYI: Here’s who is carrying the game Saturday:

• FOX Sports Carolinas (FS Carolinas) – covers the states of North Carolina and South Carolina
• FOX Sports South (FS South) – covers six states in the southeastern portion of the country: Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi and Kentucky
• SUN Sports (SUN) or FOX Sports Florida (FS Florida) – both cover the state of Florida
• Comcast SportsNet Mid-Atlantic (CSN Mid-Atlantic) – covers the states of Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia, and parts of Delaware, Pennsylvania and West Virginia
• New England Sports Network (NESN) – covers the New England states of Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine

THE opponent:

Note: I wrote this before I watched bc beat clemson 59-57 on Thursday night.  My learnings are in italics…

Why am I so confident even after those two turds the Hokies dumped in the last week?  Simple — boston college is the worst ACC team of all time.  That’s saying something because we must remember wake forest went 1-15 in the league last year (well, I guess the worst bc could do now is 1-15 now since they beat clemson).  wake’s Scoring Margin was -18.5, which includes their win over uva.  They lost 8 ACC games by 20+ points.  But I’m calling it now — the eagles are worse.  Here’s why:

• 10.7%: bc returned just 263 of their 2,440 points from a year ago.  And you thought we got hit hard!
• Of the 263 points returning, two of those guys were walk-ons, and another (Danny Rubin) has played just 4 total minutes in the last 7 games.
• bc starts 5 freshmen, and believe me, this ain’t the Fab 5.  This is El Cinco Stinko.  Four of them are 3-star recruits, which isn’t bad but also not great, and the other, Heckmann, is from Germany… and he ain’t Dirk Nowitzki.  They have 9 freshmen out of the 15 guys on their roster.  Their 3 seniors are all walk-ons and their only junior is a transfer. Much like wake forest a year ago, this experience will help them, but it’s gonna be a blood bath this year.  Lonnie Jackson looks like a decent player but he looks like the star of a JV squad.  Their transfer, Humphrey from oregon, looks decent, too.
• They have no one ranked in the top 25 in the ACC in scoring.
• bc has almost no inside presence — they are last in the ACC in Offensive Rebounding Percentage by far (24% when the next closest is 28%).  That ranks 338th (out of 344) in the NCAA.  They also are near the bottom in blocks, steals (they are 332nd in the nation in steals per game), and defensive rebounding %.  boston college had ONE offensive rebound against clemson.  1!  That’s pathetic.  But they shot 50% which compensated for that and 7-foot freshman Dennis Clifford had 15 points and 7 rebounds.  Considering Tech’s ‘success’ against other crappy bigs (minnesota, wake, fsu), that’s not a good sign.  bc loves to pick and roll with Clifford.  FYI: Clifford has more zits on his face than bc has returning points.
• They average less than 4,400 fans per game, so it will not be a hostile atmosphere.  I’d guess there were 2,000 there on Thursday.
• The eagles were 30 point underdogs at unc (though they did cover!… losing by 23).  They’ve lost to harvard at home by 20, 3-14 rhode island, to new mexico by 18, and to holy cross by 22.  They were 9 points dogs at home against clemson.  So they are now 2-0 vs the spread while VT is 0-2 (VT was favored in both games so far).
• Their RPI is 254 out of 344 teams.  Well, that will go up a tad, but keep in mind clemson was around 160, so they basically beat the next worst team in the ACC.
• I typed up this article with them at 0-2 before they even played their game against clemson.   Ugh, clearly my prediction skills wore off with the new year.

The eagles, like most teams with no inside talent, will chuck it from deep.  They make 7.5 3-pointers per game, the 3rd highest average in the ACC, but make less than 34% of them.  Their 334 3-point attempts is by far the most in the league.  Humphrey, a transfer from oregon, cranks out 6 per game, but makes less than 30%.  Their best shooter from deep is Jackson (not Reggie, he’s gone).  Lonnie Jackson has hit 28 of his 62 3-point attempts, a very solid 45% clip.

The only way the eagles have any chance in this game is to be hot from deep (bc was 8/18 from deep against clemson, accounting for 40% of their points), they play a 2-3 zone and Tech looks as inept as they did against wake’s (not getting the ball to the high post and not attacking the offensive glass), and pigs fly.  I’d have said “no way” a week ago, but after how wake and fsu shot against VT from deep, and how bad VT has looked against a 2-3 zone, I guess there is a chance bc can win.  But I’m not worried about locating uva gear just yet.

Yes, bc beat clemson, but keep in mind clemson is awful, too.  Yes, clemson just beat fsu by 20 at home.  I have NO IDEA how that happened.  clemson lost to 3 teams from their own state out of conference – so like I said, they stink.  Seriously, this is bizarro ACC.  I think everyone is just so bad, everyone is competitive.  How crazy is this ACC season?  8 of the 12 teams sit at 1-1.

THE SERIES:

• Overall: bc 13-7
• At bc All Time: bc 9-1 (one win was in OT in 2008)
• In ACC Play: bc 7-5 (3 in a row)
• At bc in ACC games: bc 5-1 (3 in a row)

Last Year:

• 03.02.11 @VT on Senior Night: bc 76, VT 61 - probably what knocked VT out of the NCAAs
• 02.05.11 @bc: bc 58, VT 56 - Delaney missed a key FT and Green missed a 3-pointer for the win

The two teams will play again @VT later this year (chalk up another Hokie win).

STARTERS:

STATS: (bc’s stats are from before their game with clemson on Thursday night)

BORING FACTS ABOUT boston college (“Strength, skill, character”):

Popularity: 14% [?]

Spread: Hokies by 4.

The Hokies play their ACC home opener on Tuesday in a critical match-up between two desperate teams.  The loser will fall to 0-2 in league play and face a tough hole to climb out of to get back in the ACC race for a First Round bye.  The winner will gain a measure of confidence.

The Hokies swept the noles last year, but were just 2-6 before that against free shoes u.  Tech dominated florida state in early January in Blacksburg, then beat them in the ACC Tournament Quarterfinal on the infamous good/no-good shot by Derwin Kitchen.

The noles have finished in the ACC top four three years in a row (3rd place the last two years).  But Kitchen is gone, and more importantly so is Chris Singleton – he finished Third Team All ACC last year and was the runner up for Defensive Player of the Year despite missing the last month of the regular season.  Singleton is now slummin’ for the winless Wizards.

While the Hokies stink in ACC openers, falling to 1-7 with the loss at wake, Tech has been money in ACC Game #2.  The previous 4 years Tech started 0-1, but rebounded to win Game #2 to get back to .500.  And the Hokies have won 4 of their past 5 ACC openers (they lost last year to uva).

THE SERIES:

• Overall: fsu 25-19
• At VT All Time: VT 12-7
• In ACC Play: fsu 6-4
• At VT in ACC Games: VT 3-1

Last Year:

• ACC Tourney Quarterfinals: Recap – VT 52, fsu 51  |  Highlights
• Jan. 08, 11: Recap – VT 71, fsu 59

STARTERS:

STATS:

THE MATCH-UP:

As usual, the noles are built around defense.  They bring a tremendous length into Blacksburg (that didn’t come out right).  What I mean is they are exceptionally tall as usual. That presents challenges trying to shoot over them.  The result, as usual, is florida state leads the ACC in FG% Defense.  They also lead in blocked shots and steals.

The other problem the noles’ length presents is rebounding.  Tech just played the 2nd-worst rebounding team in the league and got thoroughly beaten on the glass (largely because they did not attack the 2-3 zone on offense and tried to go small against wake on defense).  I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Hokies play two of their big men (Davila, Raines, Barksdale) at the same time to combat the size of the noles.  Tech must do a better job on the glass then they did in Winston-Salem.

So, if the noles are so good defensively as usual, why aren’t they winning more?  Heck, they are 0-2 against the Ivy League with losses to a good harvard team (fsu didn’t score for the first 11 minutes of the game) and they lost to princeton.  And they just lost by 20 at a very bad clemson team on Saturday in their ACC opener.  Here’s why I think they are down…

They aren’t as athletic as they usually are, meaning the Hokies can push the ball on them… yeah, maybe.  VT really struggled to get transition points Saturday except for the back-to-back dunks to tie the game at 50 late.  But with how good fsu is defensively, the Hokies must find ways to get easy baskets.

On offense, Ian Miller has been their best scorer since being cleared to play at the end of the first semester.  I assume that means he didn’t have the grades to play in the fall semester.  The sophomore guard has averaged 13.8 ppg in the 4 games he’s played.  But Ian is shooting under 40% from the field and just 25% on 3s, so his scoring is unproductive scoring.

In fact, the noles are just plain awful from deep.  They are just 30% from deep on the year despite the fact they have two guys, Loucks and Dulkys, who are supposed to be 3-point shooting specialists.  The two are both shooting around 33% from deep.  Michael Snaer, a junior guard, has been their best shooter.  He’s shooting 35% from long range with 25 makes.  He is the most athletic guard and can drive, too.  Snaer and Miller will both challenge Tech’s perimeter guards off the dribble.

The big problem for the noles has been turnovers.  They have a -1.7 turnover margin, in the bottom third of the ACC.  They had 4 more turnovers than the tigers Saturday.  Considering the fact fsu leads the ACC in steals (which count as turnovers for the other team), that tells you fsu is giving up a LOT of possessions.  Can the Hokies turn those turnovers into points, specifically easy transition points?  That will be a big key…

HO-KEYS TO THE GAME:

• Rebounding: Edge (on paper) florida state.  The Hokies need to hustle more than they did Saturday for 50/50 balls.
• 3-Pt Shooting: Edge Hokies.  Tech is 10-1 when they shoot for a higher percentage from deep than their opponent.  They didn’t Saturday (wake 44%, VT 27%), and now the Hokies are 1-3 when the opponent shoots better.  Considering VT is 4th in the league in 3-Pt% and fsu is last, let’s hope that’s a good omen.
• Turnovers: Slight Edge VT.  wake had 16 turnovers to just 10 by VT Saturday and yet the Hokies still lost.  But against the noles with their size advantage, Tech must win this stat to have a chance.  They need more quality possessions than the noles, and need fsu turnovers to fuel the transition game.

BORING FACTS ABOUT florida state (“Strength, skill, character”):

Popularity: 13% [?]

Of Note: Dorenzo Hudson became the 42nd Hokie to reach the 1,000 point mark for a career in the oklahoma state game, Part III.

Welcome back, VT football fans.  I wish we were reuniting under better circumstances, but let’s just pretend like Tuesday didn’t happen and move on.  The bball team is doing well!  Hey, we might make the NCAAs this year!  Ugh, forget I said that.  Seriously, though, if you haven’t been following us so far, we have a lot of changes.  This should catch you up…

• Midseason Video and ACC Preview
• Midseason Report Card

On Saturday the Hokies open ACC play with a trip down to Winston-Salem to face the demon deacons of wake forest.  wake finished last year 1-15 in the ACC and were probably the worst team in ACC history.  Tech beat them by a combined 43 points last year.  Their #2, 3, and 5 scorers either graduated or left school — J.T. Terrell and Ari Stewart both left wake for the usc trojans (Terrell had a DWI) and Gary Clark, a deadly 3-point shooter but horrible defender, graduated.  The deacons just lost to wofford earlier this week.  So this should be a cake walk, right?  Well, maybe not.  I do think the Hokies will win, but I’m only 67% confident of that (i.e. if they played at wake 3 times, VT would win 2).  I’ll get to why I feel that way in a few moments in “THE opponent” section.

Looking at the bigger picture, the Hokies can, and need to, get off to a fast start in the ACC.  VT has 2 very winnable ACC road games sandwiched around a trip by a struggling fsu team to the Cassell next week.  But after that, the Hokies play unc, @uva, byu, @maryland, and duke before the schedule gets easier.  We’d obviously like to be 3-0 in ACC play heading into that tough stretch, with 2-1 a must at the very least.  And that all starts Saturday.

THE SERIES:

Virginia Tech has owned wake forest since joining the ACC.  Check out these numbers:

• In ACC action: VT 8-2 (their best winning percentage against any ACC team – LINK)
• Overall: VT 28-26 (1 of just 3 ACC teams VT has a winning all time record against)
• At wake in ACC play: VT 3-1
• Last February at wake: VT 76, wake 62 (LINK)
• Last January at VT: VT 94, wake 65 (LINK)

This will be the ONLY meeting of the regular season between the two schools.

NOTE: This marks the 3rd time Tech has opened ACC play with wake, choking a hearbreaker back in 2007-08 77-75 at wake (Dorenzo Hudson’s debut), and winning 63-60 at home in 2006-07.

STARTERS:

STATS:

THE opponent – wake forest:

As I said earlier, don’t just chalk this up as a Hokies win like we could last year, even with wake coming off a 1-15 season and having lost to wofford.  Why?  Simple – C.J. Harris.  Harris is averaging 18.7 ppg, 2nd best in the ACC behind maryland’s Stoglin.  He’s shooting an amazing 54% from the field and 53% from behind the 3-point line (24/45)!  And this is as a guard!  To shoot over 50% is amazing for a perimeter player.    If the season ended today, I’d pick him over Erick Green for 1st Team All-ACC (I’d also have Stoglin at the guard spot, with Barnes (unc), Henson (unc), and Scott (uva)).

Big deal, you say, they just lost to wofford… well, will you let me finish?  Yeesh.  I know you are upset about Tuesday, as am I, but can you let me get to my point?   Thank you…

Harris didn’t play against wofford.  He sat with a strained groin, but is expected back for the VT game.  That means he has 5 days to heal.  Personally, I’ve never pulled a groin (I leave that for the ladies), so I cannot say how close to 100% he might be.  wake must have Harris near 100% to have any chance.  Harris can shoot from deep as I said, but is also excellent at attacking the rim and scoring or drawing fouls (91 FTs, hitting 78%).

wake isn’t a one man band, though.  Travis McKie, a sophomore from Richmond and an old high school rival of Cadarian Raines (Petersburg), is averaging 17.9 ppg, 3rd best in the ACC.  McKie is a tad undersized as a big man at 6’7″ and 210 lbs, but he can shoot from the perimeter, too.  He’s hit 16/41 3s (39%), so you have to respect him out there.  Doe Doe should match up with him well with Doe Doe’s reach and athleticism, but McKie is a good low post player and could muscle Doe Doe.  Raines could do a good job on McKie and/or VT could put Doe Doe on the 6’8″ Mescheriakov (or Davila could guard Mescheriakov if the 7-foot Desrosiers isn’t in).

Tony Chennault will also handle the ball a lot in addition to Harris, and the 6’2″ sophomore averages 11.4 ppg.  Tony is an awful 3-point shooter (5/22) but does get to the rim a lot and can dish or get to the FT line.

Both Harris and Chennault will look to drive and either shoot, or dish to McKie or the other post players.

Chase Fischer, a freshman guard, is wake’s best bench player.  He is exclusively a 3-point shooter.  75% of his shots are 3-pointers, so Tech must keep an eye on him outside when he’s in.

All that being said, the biggest advantage the Hokies have is on the bench.  Tech has Seth Greenberg, while wake forest has the new sheriff in town in terms of Worst ACC Coach.  With Sidney Lowe gone from nc state and Paul Hewitt history at georgia tech, Jeff Bzdelik is the new low in terms of suits.  Jeff went 36-58 at colorado (10-38 in the Big 12) in 3 years before getting fired, yet somehow leveraged that into the wake job.  It is eerily similar to the ricky “Program Bomb” stokes hiring at wake — Bzdelik has a close relationship with the wake A.D.  The deacons went 8-24 last year including 1-15 in conference.  They’ve already managed to win 9 games this year, and I think they’ll improve on that 1-15 record in the league, but Jeff is still the pits.  He looks brain-dead on the sideline with no emotion.  We’ll see if Steve Donahue can give Bzdelik a run for his money at worst coach, but with bc having gone 9-7 last year and tying for 4th, bc has a long ways to fall.

HO-KEYS TO WINNING:

• Pound the glass: wake is an AWFUL rebounding team.  They are 11th in the league in defensive and offensive rebounding percentages.  In other words, they give up a lot of 2nd chances and don’t get many themselves.  Look for VT to dominate the boards like they did against oklahoma state.
• Defense: When Fischer is in, overplay him on the perimeter.  Play off Chennault on the perimeter – take away his dribble drive and dare him to shoot 3s.  Harris will require help – you need to be on him outside, but when he beats his man off the dribble, the D must rotate without giving up easy looks inside (Rankin may get time on Harris).
• Get easy buckets: wake is not a good defensive team.  They are slow in the post.  Get out and run and get transition buckets.  Tech is 8-0 this year when they shoot for a higher FG% than their opponent (3-3 when they shoot a lower FG%).
• Hot from deep: The Hokies are 10-1 when they shoot for a higher 3-Pt% than their opponent (if you remember this stat from last year, this stat determined the winner of Tech’s final 17 games I believe).  VT is 1-2 when shooting a lower 3-Pt % than their opponent, so obviously that stat is again a big determining factor this year.  The key is stopping Harris from deep, and then Fischer off the bench.  Given the fact VT has been, or near, #1 in this stat in the nation most of the year, you have to like our odds here.
• Protect the ball: Both teams average 13 turnovers per game.  I thought Tech had cured their issues here, but then they had 16 TOs vs okie state.  The Hokies have had more turnovers than their opponent in all of their losses.  With how bad wake is on the glass, if VT can limit turnovers, the deacons have no shot.
• Urgency: Hey, this is a big game.  VT has lost their last 4 ACC openers, and are 1-6 all time in ACC openers.  It is hard to come back from a 0-1 hole and have a big year in the ACC.  If Tech wants a top 4 spot in the league, they need to get some wins before the stretch of unc, uva, maryland, and duke.  And let’s get Zo (0-4) his first ACC opener win.

BORING FACTS ABOUT wake forest (“For humanity”):

Popularity: 16% [?]

On Saturday the Hokies play… wait, this has to be a typo… the oklahoma state cowboys?!  Seriously?!  Didn’t we just play them?  Well, that should make this preview easy.  The Hokies took down okie state 59-57 to capture the NIT Bronze Medal a month ago (RECAP).

On New Year’s Eve the Hokies will head to Stillwater to battle the pokes for the 2nd time in 5 weeks and 3rd time in 13 months.  As luck would have it, the two teams met in the Preseason NIT 3rd Place Game over Thanksgiving and already had a game on the schedule at osu for this month.  By comparison, VT will only play wake, unc, maryland, miami, georgia tech, and nc state once this season, but will face the cowboys twice.

This will be the Hokies last out of conference tune-up before starting ACC play next Saturday, January 7th, at wake forest.  Tech has one more out of conference game, home versus byu later in January, after ACC action has geared up.

Can the Hokies get the 3-game sweep of the pokes?  We’ll see.  This will be a tough road challenge at what used to be a very tough place to play.  But with the pokes recent success in football, struggles in basketball, and the fact it is during a holiday on New Year’s Eve, we’ll see how tough the environment actually is at the 13,000-seat Gallagher-Iba Arena (wear your ponchos and look out for sledgehammered fruits!).

SERIES:

VT 2-0

• 11/25/11 – VT 59-57 (Recap)  |  Highlights
• 11/26/10 – VT 56-51 (Recap)

Can a team actually break the 60 point mark in this one?  We’ll see.  The Hokies offense has been in high gear of late, averaging 78 ppg during their 5-game winning streak.

PROJECTED STARTERS:

STATS:

THE opponent:

okie state is yet another offensively challenged team.  They average 68 points per game, but had just 49 at the end of regulation against smu on Wednesday before their 68-58 2 OT win.  alabama held them to 52 the game before that, new mexico held them to 56 before that.  They’ve scored less than 60 points in regulation in 5 of their last 8 games.

I fully expect the pokes to attack the Hokies off the dribble drive on Saturday.  After struggling offensively in the first half, Markel Brown just destroyed Tech in the second half.  The 6-3 guard helped okie state score their first 28 points of the 2nd half either in the paint (20 points) or from the line (8).

Markel Brown is the cowboys glue guy.  While 5-star stud freshman Le’Bryan Nash is their 2nd leading scorer at 12.3 ppg and senior Keiton Page leads them with 13.1, Brown fuels a lot of that with the ball in his hands.  He is a freak athlete.  Brown is a terrible 3-point shooter (under 22%).

Keiton Page is their best outside shooter.  But at 5’9″, he has had trouble shooting over the tall Hokie lineup.  He had 11 points in the first meeting this year, but 5 of those were in the final 11 seconds after the game was decided (he had just 3 points in the first 35 minutes of the game).  Page had just 2 points last year against VT.  If he can get hot from deep, he can light it up (he’s 26/74 – 35%) and had 27 in their 2 OT win over smu on Wednesday.  But again, big teams give him fits.  Expect him to shoot from deeper than normal to get his shot off.

Le’Bryan Nash was rated a better recruit than Dorian Finney-Smith.  Nash put up a big goose egg vs VT in the first meeting in the scoring and rebounding columns.  Expect him to have a chip on his shoulder in this game and really attack the hoop, with Doe Doe likely guarding him.  Doe Doe had a great game with 10 points and 14 rebounds the first go-around.

Jean-Paul Olukemi also beat up the Hokies inside in the 2nd half of the first meeting.  He’s an undersized, but physical 6’5″ forward.  Jarell Eddie needs to do a better job on him than he did the first time.

Philip Jurick is a goon inside.  The 6’11″ center’s job is to rebound (6.4) and block shots (2.3).  In fact, he averages more blocks than points (1.9) per game.  Tech does not have to respect him on offense.  The post players need to rotate off him to help when guards get beat off the dribble, or to double Nash or Olukemi in the post.

Freshman Cezar Guerrero is their best bench player.  He’s a decent 3-point shooter and likes to drive with aggression, but scored just 3 points in the first meeting.  Tech really shut down their diaper dandies.

Unfortunately, Tech isn’t playing osu at the Garden.  okie state is 0-3 at MSG this year, but 7-2 away from the self-proclaimed ‘Most Famous Arena in the World’.  That said, they are 0-5 against RPI top 100 teams.  VT obviously can win this game, but the cowboys have an idea how to beat the Hokies now and have the advantage of playing at home.

HO-KEYS:

• Dominate the Glass: VT killed osu on the boards in the first meeting, snagging 20 offensive rebounds.  The cowboys are undersized inside, with Brown (a guard) their 2nd leading rebounder.  osu plays solid defense so Tech needs to get 2nd chance points to win this game.
• Protect the Paint: Expect Marquis Rankin to get Markel Brown at times (Rankin was injured for the first meeting).  If Rankin can keep Brown from driving and either getting easy buckets, or dishing for easy buckets, that will limit what osu did successfully on offense in the first meeting.
• Change the Diaper Dandies: The Hokies held Nash and Guerrero, who average over 20 ppg, to just 3 combined points in the first meeting.  If Tech can shut them down again, it will really limit the pokes offensively.
• Green: Erick had 18 points in the first meeting but has scored exactly 12 in each of the last 4 games.  Tech does well when their scoring is balanced, but I think the Winchester Rifle has to have a good game, and start hitting 3s again, to stretch out the osu defense.

BORING FACTS ABOUT oklahoma state:

Popularity: 15% [?]

On Thursday night the Virginia Tech takes on the eastern chapter of the directional michigans.  The eagles complete their tour of SW VA, having defeated radford 52-48 at the Dedmon Center on Tuesday night.  That win snapped a 5-game losing streak for the eagles that included an 84-48 loss to syracuse (michigan state also beat them by 32 and purdue beat them by 25).

While Tech will be heavy favorites in this game, it is also very important that the Hokies have a good showing:

1. VT won’t play for another 9 days (@okie state in the ‘Rematch’).
2. The Hokies only have 1 game in the next 15 days.
3. This is Tech’s next to last out of conference game before they start the ACC slate.

Playing well will send the Hokies into their Christmas break with momentum.  It is important the players feel they are playing well going into this lull to build confidence.  And the Hokies have been riding the gravy train with biscuit wheels lately, so let’s keep that rolling.

Please note highlights will likely not be up until Monday, December 26th (hey, I’m allowed a vacation, aren’t I?).

Popularity: 14% [?]

On my birthday the Hokies take on the north florida… Do you know their nickname?  If you do, you got me beat.  They are the ospreys.  Hold on a minute while I look up what the heck that is… “sometimes known as the sea hawk or fish eagle or fish hawk, is a fish-eating bird of prey.” (Thanks, Wikipedia)

Tech looks to win their fourth in a row and keep building momentum as the non-conference slate nears its end and ACC play begins.  After this game, the Hokies have just two out of conference games left before opening the ACC slate on Saturday, January 7th.

• Thursday, 7 PM – Home vs. eastern michigan
• Dec. 31 (Saturday), Noon – @oklahoma state (the rematch)

Popularity: 15% [?]

Some people were warning Tech to look out for the campbell camels.  They were 8-1 on the season… until Wednesday… when they lost… to houston baptist.  I know what you’re thinking, “What’s a houston baptist?”  As usual, your wish is my command:

• They are Division I
• They are in the Great West Conference (If you can name another team in the conference without looking then you have too much time on your hands… n.j.i.t. is in it (they are in New Jersey… in the Great ‘West’))
• Their nickname is the ‘huskies’… yeah, lots of huskies in Houston
• campbell, like norfolk state, has already played a team twice this year (houston baptist)… seriously, they played a home-and-home???  Is this some rivalry I don’t know about?  campbell won at home easily in their opener before losing at hbu.

Popularity: 15% [?]

Sunday figures to be a very emotional day as many of us in the Virginia Tech community will honor VT policeman, Deriek Crouse.  But, a game must be played, trivial as it may seem at this time with Crouse’s family and memory heavy on our minds.  Here’s a look at it…

What if I told you the norfolk state spartans are 40 spots higher in the RPI than Virginia Tech?  Well, you’d probably tell me I’m a big, fat liar then, since I said I was going to stop looking at the RPI and talking about the NCAA Tournament (OK, I snuck a look).  spartan spirit, a member of the MEAC, sits in the high 20s while VT is in the high 60s, so don’t assume this game is going to be a laugher with Joey Racer playing most of the second half.

That said, the RPI is a bunch of bull this time of year (and most of the rest of it), especially in this case.  norfolk state is listed as 5-2 in the RPI and allegedly has the 22nd toughest schedule to date because they only count games against D1 opponents.  But the spartans also beat a D3 team and LOST to a D2 school (more on that in the next paragraph).  norfolk state has played RPI #3 marquette twice — first in a regularly scheduled game at marquette, then again a week later in the semi-finals of the Paradise Jam Championship Game in the Virgin Islands (Did you hear Chuck Norris went to the Virgin Islands?  Now they are just called ‘The Islands’).  The spartans shocked the islands by beating drexel then tcu (who had just beaten uva thanks to our old buddy Hank Thorns) to advance to the title game.  After losing by 31 to marquette in their opener, norfolk state lost by just 2 points this time around.

So, more about that D2 loss — the spartans lost at home by a 69-57 score to elizabeth city state (country world universe) university in NC.  Guess who their leading scorer was that night with 18 points… seriously, guess… I’ll wait… Marquie Cooke.  Yes, THE Marquie Cooke.  The same Cooke that came to VT as a huge recruit in 2004, only to be kicked off the team after one season.  Then he was kicked out of colorado state faster than you can say elizabeth city state university.  He was a Hokie 7 years ago, yet is still in college, listed as a senior (“Lots of people go to college for 7 years.”  “Yeah, they’re called doctors.”).  So norfolk state has managed to play Hank Thorns and Marquie Cooke this year.  Odd.

Update: norfolk state will play against Darrion Pellum of hampton this year.  Darrion, a shooting guard, signed with VT as part of the Hokies 2G class but was not admitted and ended up a pirate.  As Ryan pointed out, maybe they’ll get udc and Nigel Munson on the schedule… is Phillip McCandies playing anywhere???

Anyway, my point is I’m not buying into their RPI.  And considering the MEAC is awful, a win for the Hokies here won’t mean much later in the season… crap, there I go again… never mind.  I think the Hokies are going to win.  Nuff said.

SERIES:

First ever meeting

THE opponent:

I should just call this section “THE ONE GUY WE NEED TO WORRY ABOUT”.  norfolk state’s success in this game is completely dependent on 6’10″, 240 lbs. senior Kyle O’Quinn.  He’s averaging 14.4 ppg and 10.8 rebounds.  Kyle had a double-double in 7 straight games until south carolina state ‘held’ him to 18 points and 8 rebounds on Monday.  He averaged 3 blocks per game to boot.  Tech must keep him off the offensive glass.  This is a chance for Victor Davila to step back into everyone’s good graces.  Even if VD doesn’t score all game, if he can shut O’Quinn down like he shut st. bonnie’s Nicholson down, that’s a big deal.

O’Quinn is prone to foul trouble, but since VT has shown they are not good to date at attacking the tin in the half court, I’m not holding my breath on this happening.

McEachin, Tamares, and Williams can and will shoot the 3, but this isn’t a big 3-point shooting team.  They shoot just 31% from deep (5 makes per game) and hit 61% of their FTs (that’s bad).

The spartans get a lot of steals (almost 8 per game), but they also turn it over a ton.  They had 34 turnovers in their loss to ecsu.  And you thought the Hokies were bad in this department.

PREDICTION:

The spartans average just 65 ppg, so expect this to be a half court game.  If the Hokies reach the 70 point mark, they’ll win.  If they don’t, this is going to be a nailbiter.  I think Tech wins this by 11-15 points thanks in large part to turnovers.  If VT can actually convert those turnovers into easy transition buckets, it could be a much bigger margin, but again, I’m not holding my breath.  11-15 point margin.

PROJECTED STARTERS:

Brandon Wheeless is norfolk state’s best bench player.  He’s the only guy that produces much off the pine (6.4 ppg).

STATS:

BORING FACTS ABOUT norfolk state (“Achieving with excellence”):

Popularity: 18% [?]

Spread: Hokies by 5-1/2

FYI: There will likely be no highlights for this game… likely.  We’ll see if I can pull a rabbit out of my hat, though.  You can watch the game for $9.95 though via Cox Sports Online.  For more info, CLICK HERE.  Just make sure you cancel the service after a month, that it doesn’t auto-renew.

The Hokies look for their first road victory of the year on Wednesday against a once, pretty good rhode island basketball program.  Ever heard of Lamar Odom (and the Kardashians)?  He played there… for a year… and led the rams to a 76-67 win in Blacksburg in 1999.  Cuttino Mobley played at uri and so did about 20 other NBA players past and present.  But if you want to find the ram program now, you have to scroll ALL the way to the bottom of the Atlantic 10 standings… and they have 14 teams.

Quite simply, this is not going to be a quality win for the Hokies.  And if they lose?  It will be a bad loss.  But you know what?  Let’s stop talking NCAA Tournament and this and that.  Hokies 3G.1 shouldn’t be about the tourney.  It should be about getting better.  About young guys growing and the veterans going out with a bang.  So I’m going to stop talking quality this and RPI that.  The Hokies simply need to play a good game for (close to) 40 minutes, and they need a win after losing 2 straight and 3 of 4.  If Tech can’t win at uri, they sure as heck are going to have trouble winning on the road in the ACC.

SERIES:

• Overall: uri 6-4
• Last Meeting: 2010 NIT Quarterfinals: uri 79-72 (RECAP)

I’m sure you all remember our last meeting with the rams… it was two seasons ago in the ‘Burg with a trip to MSG and the NIT Semi-Finals on the line.  Tech blew a 12-point second half lead and fell to the rams.  That one still stings.  Hudson had 19 for the Hokies (that’s when he was THE MAN) and Davila/Green had 2 each (Green hit his first jumper in about 2 months in that game, sending the crowd into a riot).

And who doesn’t remember our glory days of battling the rams in the A-10?  Well, I only remember one of those games… the A-10 Tournament Quarterfinals in Philly in 1996.  Cuttino Mobley led the rams to an upset of the West Division #1 seeded Hokies were knocked off by the East #4 seed rhode island rams.  That loss knocked the 15th-ranked Hokies all the way down to a #8 (or #9, I can never remember) seed in the NCAA Tournament and a Second Round date with the eventual champions, k-y kentucky.  Well, it’s payback time!

PROJECTED STARTERS:

STATS:

THE opponent – the rhodey rams:

How bad is it this year for the rams?  After losing by 22 to cleveland state, Head Coach Jim Baron benched their entire starting lineup for the next game, which they lost to brown university by 9.  So did the starters answer the call in the next game?  Nope.  They lost in overtime to maine (apparently they struggle with teams that have bears as their mascot… black bears… ROAR!).

It didn’t look like rhodey would be this bad.  They are just 2 years removed from a NIT semi-final appearance, which they lost in OT by just 1-point to unc.  And they followed up that 26 win season with 20 wins last year, including a 9-7 record in the A-10 (they lost in the quarterfinals of the CBI Tournament).  They also started this year off seemingly OK.  They lost in overtime to a george mason team that made the 2nd round of the NCAAs last year (albeit coached now by Paul Hewitt).  And they led at texas with 13 minutes to go before fading and falling 100-90.

If you remember two years ago, the Baron loves to press and really push an up-tempo game.  While I haven’t seen them play since the texas game, I’m wondering if he’s scaled that back a bit after giving up 92 to gmu, 100 to texas, and 83 to nebraska (they lost that game by 20).  After beating hofstra 85-73, they to boston university, cleveland state, brown, and maine, all either on campus or in Providence.  Baron also is only going 3, maybe 4 deep on his bench at this point, so pressing a ton and having guys go 35-plus minutes doesn’t work too well.  We’ll see, though.

But, expect them to be fired up on Wednesday.  Teams get fired up for ACC teams.  It will be interesting to see if their crowd shows up, though.  Depending on where they are at with finals, they may just mail this in.

Outerbridge is the only guy you’ll remember from that NIT game.  He scored 8 in that contest and averages over 13 ppg this year.  He is their best rebounder but isn’t overly thick.  This is one of the few games Doe Doe should be able to match an opponent’s size inside if he plays the 4.  Orion does have 17 blocks on the season so watch for him to try and challenge shots inside.

Jamal Wilson is their best player.  The senior guard played just 1 minute in that game 2 years ago, but is averaging 18 ppg this year.  He’s a solid, but not great, 3-point shooter who also gets to the line a LOT.  Look for him to drive and attack the rim.

Nikola Malesevic is your classic European import at forward… he likes to shoot the 3.  Have to get out on him.

Jonathan Holton is their most physical player, but that’s not saying much – he’s a 6’9″, 220 lbs. freshman.

Powell is your typical freshman point guard – he makes a mistake for every good play he makes.  Mike averages as many turnovers (3.6) as assists and shoots under 30% from the field.

The rams LOVE to shoot the 3.  Problem is they hit less than 30%.  But all 5 of their starters have at least 6 makes and 19 attempts.  They hit 6 3-pointers per game… but that’s on over 21 attempts.  They also commit a lot of turnovers – almost 40 more TOs than assists.

So how are they so bad?  They don’t shoot well… just 40% from the field and 28% on 3s, they turn it over a lot, and they give up a lot of easy buckets on defense.

HO-KEYS TO THE GAME:

• Tech matches up very well with this team (read: they aren’t that big).  But they do get a LOT of offensive rebounds since they jack up so many 3-pointers.  VT needs all 5 defenders getting a body on someone and cleaning the glass.  I’m not sure we’ll see the 2-bigs look we saw Sunday (where 2 of Raines, Davila, or Barksdale were in at the same time).  If they press a ton as we expect, VT will likely go more athletic with better ballhandlers.
• Attack: You can’t just advance over half court on a press, you have to burn it.  We’ve yet to see that from this lineup.  Pass the ball up the court and get at the rim.
• Create: uri turns it over a lot.  Again, help this fuel the transition game.  Why a team that cannot run a half court offense and hides Dorenzo Hudson in the corner all game doesn’t push the ball, I have no idea.  Tech needs to get out and run.
• uri must be hot from deep to win since they aren’t big inside and turn the ball over a ton.

BORING FACTS ABOUT rhode island (“Think Big, We Do”):

Popularity: 15% [?]

Pathetic.  No, I’m not talking about the Hokies on Wednesday night.  Or in big games.  I’m talking about you, John Q. Hokie Fan.  And I’m referring to your effort last year at the VT basketball game the day after the ACC Championship.  That day, VT was hosting uva in their ACC opener.  The stands were mostly full (but not packed like it should be for uva), but you’d have thought it was a wake.  You, Mr. Fan, were pathetic.  You sat on your hands all night, and it rubbed off on the Hokies.  The crowd was dead from the start, and Tech fell behind big early and were never to dig out.   People — we won the ACC title the day before!  Sure, we were all hungover, but I’d have expected us to fire up the emotions for uva!  End result — bad loss.

My point?  The Hokies are playing a huge game at home the day after the ACC Championship again this year.  And win or lose Saturday, we need to bring it on Sunday.  We need to be ‘All Together’ or whatever our ‘All’ slogan is for this year.  Stop whining about VT not making the NCAA Tournament and let’s make a difference… let’s be loud and nasty and rough on the visitors.  Who are we gonna beat?  The wildcats!

Oh, and it’s a WHITE OUT, people!!!

SERIES:

kansas state 1-0, winning 73-57 (Recap). Tech hung tough in Manhattan for most of the game but faded down the stretch, struggling to score (shocker).

THE opponent:

I watched the kansas state vs george washington game (ksu won 69-56) and here were my thoughts (FYI: ksu hadn’t played for 16 days so they were a tad rusty early, especially shooting).

This is supposed to be a rebuilding year for the cats (they aren’t getting any votes in either poll) after making the Big Dance 3 of the last 4 years.  They lost their star in Jacob Pullen, who averaged more than 20 ppg a year ago.  But this is a solid team and would be a huge win for Tech were they to pull it off.  ksu has 6 guys averaging over 8 ppg, so they have a lot of options and talent.

Rodney McGruder (no relation to MacGruber!) had been their best player so far this year, averaging over 14 ppg at the off-guard.  But he was off Thursday against gwu, scoring just 7 including 0/4 from deep.

So, point guard Will Spradling really picked it up on Thursday, especially in the second half for the wildcats.  He helped turn a modest 3-point halftime lead over gwu into a blowout quickly in the second half with 11 points in the final 20.

ksu likes to play 3-guard lineups, and Martavarious Irving is the other starter.  He has doubled his per game point output from last year, up to over 8 ppg.

Shane Southwell is also a good glue guy at guard off the bench.  He averages over 3 assists and 5 rebounds per game, and is a pass-first guy.

ksu has four guys that will launch it from deep at will (in order of ability: McGruder, Spradling, Rodriguez, and Irving).  None of them are lights out shooters, which McGruder historically the best at 40%.  Tech has to dare ksu to beat them from deep.  If someone is hot, VT is in trouble since Tech really needs to focus on defending the paint, their bugaboo so far this year.

As for the ksu post players… did you see what Elliott Eliason, an unproven, unathletic, freshman did to VT inside on Wednesday?  Well, kansas state is a lotta bit better inside.  The x-factor is 7′ junior Jordan Henriquez.  He’s had at least 9 rebounds and 2 blocks in every game this year, and is averaging more than 3 blocks per game.  He’s an eraser around the hoop.  Oh, and he comes off the bench.  He’s scrawny but won’t be pushed around inside and is a very good rebounder.

The wildcats start freshman Thomas Gipson.  He was just a 3-star recruit, but packs a wallop at 6-7 and 245 (he’s a beast… probably closer to 260).  He’s already the co-scoring leader on the team with 12.8 ppg as a rookie, and went for 17 points and 13 rebounds against gwu!  Keeping him off the glass will be key for Tech.  Gipson is a left and prefers to go left, so overplay him to that side.

Then there’s mercurial senior star Jamar Samuels.  He’s spent more time in the doghouse than Fido.  Samuels was suspended for the first two games of the season, but has since returned and scored in double digits both games, including a double-double Thursday.  He may be the most talented player on the team.  Even at 6-7, Jamar can step out and shoot from deep (though he’s not very accurate… you’ll gladly let him do that).  But Samuels is a freakish athlete and can really do damage around the rim.  He gets to the line a lot.

ksu does miss Curtis Kelly inside (he was the previous star of the doghouse), but believe me, this group will give VT fits if Tech cannot play better inside than they have so far this season.  And boy can they rebound.  They had 47 rebounds Thursday, including three guys with 10 or more boards.  They make teams miss a lot, and then don’t give up many second chance opportunities.

On defense, Frank Martin will employ man D.  They’ll go full court at times, employing straight man full court, or a trap, but this seems to be more about slowing you down than creating turnovers.  ksu can be lazy at times guarding the perimeter and are susceptible to giving up 3s off the ball, although gwu is the best at hitting 3s in the nation at it (%-wise). Tech should have open looks and need to hit them.  That said, the cats really work hard on defense inside the arc.  All four of their opponents have shot under 40%, including three at 32% or less, so they do not give up many easy buckets.

Virginia Tech must avoid the big runs that kansas state can go on, usually fueled by their defense and transition game.  Luckily, those are harder to do on the road when you don’t have the crowd behind you.  But ksu ran VT out of Manhattan last year with a wild run midway through the second half.

6 PACK OF HO-KEYS:

• Senior-ity: Hudson has been more up and down this year than the Grizzly at Kings Dominion.  Here are his points totals: 9, 18, 31, 13, 7, 8, 0.  Tech needs him to be on in a big game like this.  He may have been tired, getting his game legs back, the last few games.  With 3 days rest, let’s hope he’s ready.  Also, Davila really needs to step up and play like the guy we saw versus the bonnies.  He was good on defense and offense.
• Green-burg: I’m not talking Seth, I’m talking Erick!  The Winchester Rifle is finally living up to his nickname.  Dude is an unbelievable 15/26 on 3-pointers on the year!  For Tech to have any chance Sunday, let’s hope his should and Achilles are OK and he’s still unconscious from deep.  As I said above, ksu isn’t great at guarding the perimeter, so Hudson and Green (and Brown) should get some looks from deep.  Tech needs to drain them to draw the D out.
• Doe Doe not extinct: Dorian Finney-Smith has to find ways to assert himself on offense.  He needs to find ways to create shots, other than 3s or putbacks.
• 5 on the glass: Tech must get after it on the boards or ksu will dominate them inside.  At times minnesota had 4 guys in the paint to just one or two for VT.  That cannot happen.
• Be on the ball: Tech’s on-ball defense on the perimeter has been awful this year.  Guys are getting beaten like rented mules, allowing easy layups, and when help comes to defend, that opens up more offensive rebounds.  The Hokies must do a better job at stopping this.  2-3 zone?  Dare the cats to shoot from deep, in my opinion.
• Speaking of which… How many dribble-drives lead to any easy VT buckets?  The offense is either 3s or putbacks or Davila hooks.  We keep hearing VT will do more in transition, yet it never happens or VT gives up on it in the first half.  ksu will want to run.  So what?  Tech has scored less than 60 points in 3 of their last 4 games.  The Hokies struggle in the half court, they need to find ways to get easy buckets even if it means pushing the tempo and playing someone else’s game.  We need to make it more of our game.  VT is going to struggle to score inside 16′ as Frank Martin teams always play great D.  The runners have been nice, but where have been the backdoor cuts?  VT needs to pull out all the stops in this one.  ksu, as I’ve mentioned, has held every team they’ve played to under 40% from the field.  So the Hokies must hit their open looks from outside, and find ways to get points in transition, even if it is from the line.

STATS:

BORING FACTS ABOUT kansas state:

Popularity: 22% [?]

Spread: minnesota by 2 (Hmm, I wonder if they haven’t been reading the injury reports)…

Update #2: It goes from awful to worse for minnesota – senior Ralph Sampson III, their now best post player, is battling an ankle injury and is questionable for tonight (thanks for the heads up, Goad!) gopher Injuries  – I bet he plays, even if hobbled, due to their lack of depth now inside.

Update: minnesota’s star player, forward Trevor Mbakwe, is out for the year with an ACL injury.  Perhaps playing Virginia Tech causes the injury bug to bite you, too?  This is a devastating blow to the gophers, and I expect to see them struggle on offense Wednesday while they adjust to not having their star player.  This now becomes a game the Hokies really need to win, and should win, even in their first road tilt of the season and in the career of these freshmen.

November comes to a close on Wednesday.  This is the time of the year where most ACC schools, after a rough fall, finally get excited with basketball season kicking into high gear with the ACC/Big(12)Ten Challenge.  Well, as usual, the Hokies aren’t quite done with their gridiron business, with their game against clemson in the ACCCG looming Saturday (VT has not lost in the Carolinas in an ACC game since joining the league).

But enough about football, this is a HUGE week for Hokie hoops.  Let me say that again… HUGE.  The Hokies managed to get one of two in New York, something they had to do, then beat a solid st. bonaventure team in a trap game Sunday.  This week the Hokies face two solid, resume-building teams in minnesota and kansas state.  As with last week, Tech must win one of these two games to keep their NCAA drive hot, but I’m greedy and want a 2-0 (well, 3-0 counting football) week.  Both games are very winnable.  Let’s focus on first things first… at minnesota.

SERIES:

First ever meeting.

VT in the ACC/Big(12)Ten Challenge:

• 2010 – lost to #22 purdue 58-55 in OT (@VT)
• 2009 – won @iowa 70-64
• 2008 – lost to wisconsin 74-72 (@VT)
• 2007 – lost @penn state 66-61
• 2006 – beat iowa 69-65
• 2005 – lost @ohio state 69-56

THE opponent:

minnesota collapsed at the end of last year.  Near the end of January the gophers stood at 16-4, 5-3 in the Big(12)Ten.  They then proceeded to lose 10 of their final 11 games to finish 17-14 (6-12) with no postseason bid.  minnesota also lost their second leading scorer, Blake Hoffarber (he was a deadly 3-point shooter and the only guy still on the team at the end of the year to make more than 13 3-pointers… in other words, he was their ONLY option from deep.  They also lost their starting PG and best on-ball defender in Al Nolen, plus Devoe Joseph transferred to Nike U.

Consequently, the gophers were picked to finish just 7th in the league this year, but they’ve looked solid so far.  Trevor Mbakwe was their leading scorer last year and was averaging 14 ppg this year before tearing his ACL.  Trevor was projected to be a Big(12)Ten First Teamer this year.  He’s a marquette transfer that has been around the block and will really battle inside (he has no perimeter game).  Mbakwe averages over 9 rebounds per game, and 1.7 blocks.   At 6-8, 240, he is a beast inside, something Tech has struggled with other than the great job Davila did on Nicholson in the st. bonnie game.  So losing him eliminates a huge advantage the gophers had over VT.

The gophers have found solid production from two A-Hols: sophomore guard Austin Hollins and freshman guard Andre Hollins (no relation best I can tell).  The two are combining for almost 19 points, 3.5 assists, and 3 steals per game.  Andre is the better outside shooter – he’s 8/16 from deep.

minnesota does not have a deadly 3-point shooter, and that’s not their game.  They average a little over 4 makes per game and shoot a decent 34% from deep, but they want to go inside…

minnesota also sports a familiar name – Ralph Sampson III.  The senior is struggling a bit out of the gate, though, averaging just 5.8 ppg (down from 10.2).  That can probably be explained by the fact his minutes are down 10 per game, and he is a 53% shooter from the field so he’s not struggling there.  Ralph has those good genes, and stands 6-11 though he’s not nearly as physical as Mbakwe.  In fact, Ralph has attempted just 4 free throws on the season (how does a 6’11″ guy only have 4 foul shots in 118 minutes of play???

Oto Osenieks (I’ll just say ‘passes to the man’ if he gets the ball in my highlights) and Rodney Williams play solid minutes on the wing for minnesota.  They are cut from the Terrell Bell-type mold – long but not thick.

With Mbakwe out and a lack of any real 3-point threats, minnesota will go one of two ways.

1. Shorten the game: They simply don’t have the guns on offense without their big man inside and can’t light it up from outside.  So they may milk the shot clock a lot to take the air out of the ball and reduce possessions.
2. Run: Since they can’t shoot from outside, and lost their best half court threat, they may push the ball to try and get points in transition.

HO-KEYS:

• Stay hot: Can VT keep shooting 40% from behind the arc?  Will Erick Green ever get cold (11/18)?  Hmm.  Shooting in the ‘the Barn’ can be tough…
• Williams Arena is a raised court that can seat up to 14,600.  So it is cavernous, and odd in it’s setup.  The team benches are two-feet below court level.  Shooting on the road is always tough due to unique shooting backgrounds, but this place is especially weird.  This is also Tech’s first road game of the season.
• R-E R-E-B R-E-B-O-U-N-D Rebound, that basketball [clap clap clapclapclapclap]: Tech has allowed 87 offensive rebounds on the season, over 14 per game.  The Hokies have just 64 offensive rebounds.  Tech’s opponents are snagging 36%* of their misses.  That’s too many.  st. bonaventure got 11 offensive rebounds in the first half alone, and 17 for the game.   VT must limit second chance opportunities and complete stops on defense.
• Protect this ball early: I’m not bored enough to research this stat but I’m betting VT is averaging close to twice the number of turnovers in the first half as the second.  VT had 10 first half TOs against st. bonnie.  That worked out OK at home, but in a hostile environment, that spells trouble.
• Play like it’s March: If I have to say this one more time, I’m going to throw up — you cannot earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament in November, but you sure can lose it.  Year after year Tech loses these early season quality match-ups to teams not named oklahoma state then whines when they don’t make the Big Dance.  Well, listen up folks, the ACC looks awful again this year except for unc and duke.  So Tech is not going to earn a bid by going 9-7 in this league (heck, we won 11 total ACC games last year, and 10 the year before that and didn’t go).  VT HAS TO WIN THESE GAMES.  And this is a winnable team against a middle of the pack Big(12)Ten team that just got waxed by dayton.

STATS: (I removed Mbakwe, who was leading them in points, rebounds, and  blocks)

BORING FACTS ABOUT minnesota:

Popularity: 24% [?]