Spread: duke by 8.5

Doe Doe: Everyone has been talking about how good Cadarian Raines has been the last 3 weeks, and rightfully so (averaging just under 12 PPG over the last 6 games), but Dorian Finney-Smith has quietly turned things around, too.  Look at the tale of his three seasons, so to speak.

Dorian is also 11/28 from behind the arc in those last 10 games, a 39% clip (remember when he missed 25 straight shots at one point, from inside and outside the arc?).  So congrats to him on finding his stroke again.  The disappointment has been his foul shooting, he’s 6/17 in his last 4 games and hasn’t made both in a 2-shot situation in 8 opportunities.  But all in all, he’s at least gotten back to the player he was early in the season.

Random: At one point on Thursday I gave Doe Doe a new nickname — Bambi — for how timid he is on the drive.  Then he showed me up by getting two nice drive-and-finishes.

VT vs duke:

duke will not have Ryan Kelly on Friday night (so you’re sayin’ there’s a chance)… but VT had just 7 scholarship players on Thursday, forcing 5 guys to play 30+ minutes.  There is some good news on Rankin, though, there’s a solid chance he’ll play Friday.

First Meeting – 2/2 at VT – #5 duke 75, VT 60

• HIGHLIGHTS
• RECAP
• PREVIEW

Second Meeting – 2/25 at duke – #5 duke 70, VT 65 (OT)

• RECAP
• PREVIEW
• Tech stayed in this game thanks to fantastic defense (duke was getting no transition opportunities which keep the score down) and great days from Raines, Green, and Hudson – 16 points each
• Green and Raines had shots at the end of regulation to win it for VT
• Rivers was too much off the dribble for Tech (and the refs treated him like Lebron — he had 17 FTAs leading to 23 points… Curry added 19)
• Ryan Kelly had 8 in this game (He’s out)
• VT was called for 25 fouls while duke just 13 (typical)

The Hokies stayed in that game at duke, and had a chance to win it, because of their transition defense.  They made this it a half court game, and with Raines dominating inside, Green in the midrange, and Zo outside, VT had a chance to win.  But with Tech likely tired after everyone playing so many minutes Thursday night, will the 7 or 8 scholarship guys have enough in the tank and their legs to slow down duke again?

Popularity: 19% [?]

Spread: clemson by 3.5 (Spread has moved a point up from 2.5 — people are betting on clemson!)

For the second Thursday in a row the Hokies and c-l-e-m-s-ohhhhh-n will do battle, but this time with survival at stake.  If the Hokies lose, their season is over in all likelihood.  It is not believed that Tech will accept a bid to a tournament lower than the NIT, and VT would likely have to win 3 games in the Dirty, Dirty to have any shot at the NIT for a 5th year in a row.  The Hokies come in at 15-16 overall, so they must win at least 2 games to avoid finishing with a losing record.

But enough about anything other than Thursday.  The Hokies come into this game struggling, having lost 4 in a row, while the tigers have won 5 of 7, including that meeting last Thursday at clemson.  If the Hokies play like they did Sunday against nc state, you can go ahead and make a tee time for Friday, Tech will be done for the season.

These two teams are evenly matched.  In fact, each team won by exactly two points at home this year.  And in both games the road team had a chance to tie the game at the free throw line with a couple of seconds left, and in both cases, missed both.

Note: Erick Green was named to the All-ACC Second Team and Dorian Finney-Smith was selected to the All Freshman Team for the ACC.

HISTORY IN THE ACC TOURNAMENT:

• Overall Record: 5-7
• Record in the First Round: 2-1 (beat georgia tech last year)
• First Meeting between VT and clemson in the ACC Tournament

SEASON SERIES VS clemson:

Feb. 4 at Virginia Tech – VT 67-65

• Recap
• Highlights

Mar. 1 at clemson – clemson 58-56

• Recap

Tech jumped out to big leads in both games.  In Blacksburg, VT led by as many as 17 in the 1st half and took a 42-28 lead to the break.  The Hokies led by 14 with 5:30 to go, but took a knee the rest of the game and needed K.J. McDaniels (14 points and 6 dunks) to miss 2 free throws with 3 seconds left, and Tanner Smith to miss a wide open 15-footer at the buzzer from the corner to secure the win.  The tigers snagged 22 offensive rebounds but where just 2/17 on 3-pointers.

At clemson, the Hokies jumped ahead 16-6 but went scoreless for more than 6-1/2 minutes and trailed at the break 33-31.  The tigers threatened to pull away in the 2nd half, leading by as many as 8, but VT tied it with 3 minutes to go.  Neither team scored in the final 2:45 and 2 missed free throws by Cadarian Raines that could have tied the game with 5 seconds left sent the Hokies to defeat (although Raines was the VT player of the game with 12 points and 8 rebounds).  clemson outscored VT on the fastbreak 13-0, but went 0/10 from behind the arc.

Jarell Eddie scored exactly 15 points in both meetings and is 5/12 from deep against the tigers.

clemson is 2/27 from 3-point range against VT this year.

SERIES:

• Overall: VT 13-12
• Overall in ACC Play: clemson 7-5

STARTERS:

STATS:

Note: these stats are for ACC games ONLY.

Let’s win the season series!  Let’s take the rubber match!

Popularity: 17% [?]

Spread: VT by 1.5 – VT hasn’t covered in a game they’ve been favored in during 2012.

Every year it is both a thrilling and sad day. A day of rejoice, and a day of remembrance. Sunday might be our final glimpse at Hokies 2G*, as redshirt senior Dorenzo Hudson plays his final game at the Cassell. Senior Victor Davila will also be in the Cassell for the final time, but it remains to be seen if he can even play. He’s missed 5 straight games with a groin injury. Senior walk-on Joey Racer, who has scored 2 points in 5 games this year, will also dress for the final time in the Cassell.

Here’s some factoids on the seniors:

• 79-24: Tech’s record in games Zo’s played in.
• 192: Combined starts by Davila (102) and Hudson (90).
• 1890: Combined points by Zo (1170) and Davila (720).
• 32nd: Hudson’s rank on the VT career scoring list.
• 49-19: Tech’s record at the Cassell in games Hudson has played in. Victor has also been a part of 49 home wins. Let’s get 50!

*Hokies 2G (Coach Greenberg’s 2nd Generation of players) was comprised of the 2007 VT Recruiting Class, which included Zo, Malcolm Delaney, Jeff Allen, Terrell Bell, JT Thompson, and Hank Thorns — it is possible JT will keep 2G in play next year if he decides to return for a 6th season.

For the Hokies, they still have something to play for. While they aren’t fighting for a NCAA Tournament bid this year on Senior Night, they are playing for a few things:

• NIT: Tech must win to stay over .500 and have any shot at an NIT bid.
• 3-4: Tech is 3-4 in ACC games at the Cassell this year. They have had just one losing ACC home campaign in 7 previous seasons (2005-06 — 2-6).
• Tech would avoid tying their worst ACC finish with a win (they were 4-12 in 05-06).
• 50 career home wins for VD and Zo with a win.

Also, Tech’s ACC Tournament seed is on the line: Note: bc got waxed at miami and ga tech pulled away from wake late, so wake, gt, and bc are 4-12 in the clubhouse

• #9: If the Hokies win Sunday, they are the #9 seed and play the #8, maryland, at noon on Thursday.
• #10: If VT loses to state, they’ll be the #10 seed and play the #7 seed (could be miami, uva, or clemson). wake would be the #9, gt #11, and bc #12.

nc state: The pack-backers are trying to forget the last 5 years under Sidney Lowe, their ricky stokes. They won just 25 regular season ACC games in that time, never more than 6 in a season. Mark Gottfried has already led them to 2 more win they they ever had under Lowe (8), and can lock up their first winning season since they ran Sendek out of town.

state started out 7-3 in ACC play and led at duke by 20. But then the pack reverted back to their Lowe ways, blowing that lead, the game, and losing 4 in a row to drop to 7-7 in the ACC. But they swept miami, winning on Leap Day over the canes, and find themselves in a 4-way tie with uva, miami, and clemson. To get the #4 seed and a bye in the ACC Tourney, state would need to beat VT, and have uva and clemson lose. uva needs to win and not finish in a 2-way tie with clemson.

Things are looking up for state, though. They are bringing in perhaps the top recruiting class in the nation for next year. Gottfried does have a history of shadiness, though (where there’s smoke…???).

SERIES:

• Overall: state 34-14
• At VT: state 10-7
• At VT in ACC Play: VT 3-2 (VT 2 in a row)
• Overall in ACC Play: state 6-5
• Last Meeting (2/2/11): VT 77, @ nc state 69

STARTERS:

*I’m listing Davila as the starter since it is Senior Day. Finney-Smith will start in his place if he can’t go.

^ Painter is a cousin of VT’s offensive lineman, Vinston Painter

state will only go about 2-deep on their bench. They have no depth and they get just 11 bench points per game. But they are extremely balanced in their starting lineup – all 5 starters average in double figures.

• Scott Wood has the muscles of a pencil. He loves to shoot the 3 and hasn’t added the drive like Ryan Kelly has for duke. Wood hits 42% of his 3s (78 makes), both of which are #1 or tied for #1 in the ACC. Wood made 66 consecutive FTs this season, an ACC record (he’s 92% for the year).
• C.J. Leslie is their most athletic and most talented player.
• Howell is #4 in the ACC in rebounds per game (9.2)

STATS:

Note: these stats are for ACC games ONLY.

BORING FACTS ABOUT nc state:

• Founded: 1887
• Enrollment: 23.7 undergrad, 7.4 postgrad
• National Titles (Basketball): 1974 and 1983
• ACC Titles (Basketball): 10 – last was in 1987 – 3rd most in the ACC
• ACC Football Titles: 7 (tied for 4th most) – none since 1979 – in fact, the two state schools (unc and nc state) haven’t won an ACC football title, or even tied for one, since 1980. There’s no pigskin on Tobacco Road.

Popularity: 13% [?]

Spread: clemson by 5.5 (the Hokies have covered in the last 3 games they were ‘dogs in)

March Madness is here again!  I’ve got good news/bad news for all you Hokie hoops fans.  What do you want first?  I heard HipHop say ‘good news’ so let’s start with that (Chuck only wants to hear the bad news… kidding!):

• Good news: You don’t have to sweat out another Selection Sunday this year!
• Bad news: …because Virginia Tech isn’t going to the Big Dance and unless they start winning some games, won’t even be in the NIT and might be relegated to the CBI or some other made up tournament.  Technically you don’t have to have a .500 record to make it, but in reality VT will have to be at least .500 to get in, and even then they might not.

On Thursday night Virginia Tech heads to clemson for their final regular season road game.  Tech is 2-3 at Littlejohn since joining the ACC, alternating losses then wins (they are due to win this game since clemson won at clemson last year in the regular season finale, effectively knocking the Hokies out of the NCAA Tournament).  But winning in Littlejohn will be a challenge — the tigers are 5-2 at home in ACC play this season.

Tech beat clemson a month ago, jumping out to a 17-point first half lead (that’s how you debate!) and going into halftime up 42-28.  So we must have reached 70 points, right?  Nope.  Tech took a knee the final 6 minutes, and despite having a 14-point lead with 5:30 to go, clemson had two opportunities to tie the game at the end.  K.J. McDaniels missed two free throws with 3 seconds left, but Tanner Smith grabbed the offensive rebound and missed a 14-foot jumper at the buzzer, and the Hokies won 67-65. Eddie had 15, Doe Doe 12, and Green 10 for Tech.  For the tigers, Young had 14, McDaniels had 14 (almost all on dunks — he had 6 dunks), Booker 11, and Smith 10.

Since that point, clemson has gone 4-2, winning 4 of their last 5.  They beat uva by 12 at home.  Tech has been very mercurial since that clemson game, playing up to their better competition (narrow losses to fsu, uva, and duke where VT led in the 2nd half in all three), while playing down to the level of the poorer teams (should have lost to bc at home and needed a 3 at the buzzer to beat georgia tech who didn’t have their best player).  Which Hokie team will show up Thursday?  The Hokies are just 1-6 on the road in league action this year, but since clemson is playing well right now, I assume that means the Hokies will rise to the challenge and play well.

SERIES:

• Overall: VT 13-11
• At clemson: clemson 6-5
• At clemson in ACC Play: clemson 3-2
• Overall in ACC Play: clemson 6-5
• Last Meeting: VT 67 clemson 65 RECAP  |  HIGHLIGHTS

STARTERS:

*6’9″ Milton Jennings was suspended for academic reasons for the last meeting, but is back and starting now.

STATS:

Note: these stats are for ACC games ONLY.

Tech was #1 in FT% two weeks ago, now they are smack dab in the middle.  As for the rest of the stats, you can see that these are two pretty evenly matched teams on paper.  clemson gives up a high FG%, but they get a lot of steals to balance that out.  Hence, they don’t give up many points.

Let’s give the tigers some more payback for daring to steal our ACC Football Championship!

Popularity: 15% [?]

Spread: duke by 12.

The Hokies get the blue devils at a good time. Well, sort of. The blue devils must play at florida state just 40 hours before the Hokies and nerds meet in Cameron Indoor Stadium. That game with the noles is huge for duke. This game is sandwiched between duke’s win at fsu then the devils have to play unc next week. So there’s a chance duke could be looking past this game, and they certainly won’t have much time to prepare… but we also know how good VT is in Short Turnaround games (8-1 all time, 2-0 this year), and duke is a heck of a lot better.

Reality is the two teams have already played and despite a solid start from the Hokies at home (the game was tied at 21), duke blew Tech out of their own arena, jumping to a 10-point halftime lead and getting up by as many as 23 in the 2nd half before settling for a 75-60 win.

First Meeting:

• RECAP (duke 75, @VT 60)
• HIGHLIGHTS

Ryan Kelly had 7 points while duke went on an 13-2 run to turn a 21-21 tie with 7 minutes to go in the first half into a 34-23 blue devil lead. His ability to shoot the ball outside, coupled with his shot-fake and ability to drive and score in the paint, was too much for VT. He finished with 15 points.

Austin Rivers had 18 points, 5 assists, and 5 rebounds. He’s shooting the ball much better from deep of late and we already knew he could kill you off the dribble.

Seth Curry added 11 after being shut out in the House Dell Built last year, but Curry was just 2/7 on FGs. He has been playing much better of late (see below). Mason Plumlee added 10 points, 8 in the first half.

Tech was -6 on turnovers in the first meeting (7-13), and duke was +5 on 3-pointers made (8-3). Green had 17 for the Hokies (the more he scores, the more VT loses) and tied a career high with 7 rebounds. Davila tied his career high with 16 points, but he’s missed VT’s last 3 games and could be out Saturday.

THE SERIES:

vs duke:

• All Time: duke 38-8
• At duke: duke 17-1
• In ACC Play: duke 9-3
• At duke in ACC Play: duke 4-1

STARTERS:

A lot of the duke’s starters averages have been dropping except for Rivers (29 points against unc, including the game winning 3-pointer) and Curry (20 ppg over the last 5 games).

STATS:

Note: these stats are for ACC games ONLY.

NERDS!

Popularity: 14% [?]

Spread: uva by 2.5

The Hokies look to give uva a taste of their own medicine on Tuesday night in the Cassell and sweep the hoos in the rematch of their January 22nd contest that VT won 47-45 at uva. Last year uva swept the Hokies, helping knock Tech off the NCAA Tournament bubble.  While uva appears to be a lock for this year’s Dance, sitting at #41 in the RPI, VT could at least make them sweat it out a bit.  The good news for VT is the winner of the first match-up has swept the season series in 3 of the last 4 years and 4 of the last 6.

Tuesday night will be Mike Scott’s 5th and final appearance in the Cassell (we think).  Actually, the first time Scott played at VT, I think the Hokies were still playing in War Memorial Gym.  Mike has done very well in the past in the Cassell, but VT limited him to just 10 points in the first meeting, 7 points below his average. In Scott’s last two trips to Cassell, he’s totaled 41 points and 26 rebounds.  He has 110 points and 58 rebounds for his career against the Hokies.  Ouch.

Scott is a lock to be 1st Team All-ACC, if not the player of the year.  He’s 3rd in the league in PPG (17.2), 6th in rebounds (8.2), #1 in FG% (59%)*, and even #9 in FT% (82%). [*My fiance would tell you he shoots a higher percentage from the field than I do at the toilet.]

Davila is Tech’s best post defender and he was a big reason Scott only scored 10 points in the first meeting.  If Victor is out, will the Hokies be able to defend Scott inside?  We could see the 2-3 zone again.  Foul trouble would be a major risk for Barksdale and Raines, but the zone would help mitigate that.  And the zone would also help uva get decent looks from the outside.  This will be the key match-up if VD can’t go.

It will also be Dorenzo Hudson’s 5th game against uva in the Cassell.  He had 15 points two years ago in VT’s 61-55 win.

In the first meeting back in January, Zo scored 6 of the team’s final 8 points, including a clutch hook to put VT up 3, 44-41, and then the game-clinching 3-pointer to make the margin 47-43 with 17 seconds left to cement the win.  Late in that game, Coach Greenberg had Hudson post up on uva’s smaller guards down low, allowing Hudson to shoot over the cavalier defender.  It worked twice down the stretch.  Hudson had 12 total points for the game.

FIRST MEETING (1/22/12 @ uva):

• RECAP - Green led VT with 15, including 12 in the 2nd half, but it was Zo Hudson’s clutch 3-pointer with 17 seconds left that clinched the game for the good guys.  uva had 22 FTAs to just 7 for VT (and most of those were at the end) and had 13 offensive rebounds to just 4 by VT.  But uva was just 1/14 from deep, while VT hit 5/13, and as you all know, that stat decides the winner.  It was the lowest point total for VT in a win over uva since 1942.
• HIGHLIGHTS
• Me looking like an idiot because I guaranteed a win at bc and lost my bet

THE SERIES:

• All Time: uva 81-53
• At VT: VT 27-17 (VT is 14-3 vs uva at the Cassell)
• In ACC Play: tied 8-8
• At VT in ACC Play: VT 5-2 (Tech had won 4 straight in the Cassell before last year)

STARTERS:

• # Davila has missed Tech’s last 2 games with a groin injury and is questionable for the uva game.
• ^Joe Harris, uva’s 2nd leading scorer, broke his left, non-shooting hand, 3 games ago.  He has averaged just 5.3 ppg since suffering the injury.  He hasn’t reached double digits in those 3 games after surpassing the 10-point mark in 18 of the 21 games before the injury.
• *uva has been without 7’0″ senior center Assane Sene (4.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg) since he rolled his ankle against ga tech in mid-January. Akil Mitchell (6’8?, Sophomore, 4.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) has started in his place.
• uva does not have much depth due to transfers so this could be a big issue for them.  They are down to 8 scholarship players of note that see minutes.

HOT HOKIES:

• Dorian Finney-Smith has hit 18 of his last 35 shots (51%) since ending his 0/25 stretch.
• Marquis Rankin has hit 5/11 3-pointers after starting the season just 2/9.
• Jarell Eddie has made at least 2 three-pointers in 9 of 13 games, including 4 of the last 5.
• Tech has just 12 total turnovers in their last two games while their opponents have committed 29.  VT also has a 16-4 advantage in steals in those 2 games.

uva COLD: Senior Sammy Zeglinski has averaged just 5.2 ppg over his last 6 games, well below his now 8.1 ppg average.  He scored just 5 in the first meeting.

uva HOT: Junior PG Jontel Evans, who is a horrible shooter for a point guard, has averaged 9.8 ppg over his last 4 games, pulling up his scoring average to 6.8.  He had 10 in VT’s win at uva.  Evans is a very talented ball-handler that can penetrate and get to the tin.  He has not attempted a 3-pointer in uva’s last 6 games (play off him).

STATS:

Note: these stats are for ACC games ONLY.

Interesting that uva is #1 in defensive rebounding, but 2nd-to-last in offensive.  I attribute that to them dropping back on defense, since that’s their bread and butter, and not sending a lot of guys to the offensive glass.

The Hokies must do a good job on Scott again to win, but they must improve on defensive rebounding, turnovers, and free throw attempts.  uva dominated all 3 stats in the first meeting (well, they didn’t dominate TOs but VT had 13, which is way too many).  Tech cannot expect uva to shoot 1/14 from deep again, which is the main reason the Hokies won.

Popularity: 14% [?]

Update: Glen Rice, Jr., gt’s leading scorer, rebounder, steals, 3-pointers, 2nd in assists, and 2nd in blocks, has been suspended and will not play Saturday against VT.

Spread: fsu by 9.5 (Vegas is finally starting to adjust)

ACC SCHEDULING: How bad has the ACC screwed VT this year in scheduling?

1. Tech didn’t get a single weekend home game in January, playing on the road all 4 weekends.
2. The Hokies have to play two sets of Short Turnaround games this year for the first time since joining the league (2 games within 48 hours of each other).

The good news about the latter of those two is Tech is now 7-1 all time in ACC Short Turnaround tail end games. In other words, after playing a game on Day 1, the Hokies have won 88% of the games played on Day 3, less than 48 hours later. The last win came two weeks ago when VT took down clemson at home after losing to duke. VT has won 4 in a row in this situation. Add to the fact they are playing the worst team in the ACC, and you have to like our odds!… on Saturday, that is.

f-l-o-r-i-d-a s-t-a-t-e florida state florida state florida state… WOOOO: I’m not gonna lie to you — I’m not going to spend a lot of time on the florida state preview. I debated about putting VT at 3-8 up above and calling it a day (but then I’d be resorting to Cope’s tactics… did you know he pre-writes our recaps as if we’d already lost?).

Here’s how the first game went down:

• Recap – fsu 63 at VT 59
• Highlights
• fsu opened ACC play with a 20 point loss at clemson, but including their win at VT, they’ve won 8/9 (their lone loss was at bc… go figure… they beat unc by 33 and won at duke, but couldn’t beat bc).
• Bernard James, the 27-year-old real American hero, was a man in this game. He scored 18 points, snagged 15 rebounds, and blocked 3 shots. He dominated the paint in the 2nd half to help fsu prevent blowing a double digit lead.

BUT THIS IS A BIG GAME FOR THE HOKIES! Tech has won at every other ACC school since joining the league. Actually, to take that a step further, VT has won at every other school in basketball AND football, but hasn’t won at fsu in either (although they’ve only played there once in pigskin). Hokie hoops is 0-5 in Tallahassee since entering the league.

Here’s how long it took VT to win at the other ACC sites:

• 1st try: 4 (georgia tech, miami, wake forest, unc)
• 2nd try: 1 (clemson)
• 3rd try: 3 (duke, maryland, bc)
• 4th try: 2 (uva, nc state)
• 6th times the charm at fsu!

So let’s fast forward to Saturday…

ramblin’ wreck: Update: The question is, will VT have any healthy players on Saturday?  There are injury concerns about Davila, Barksdale, Eddie, and Raines, and with less than 48 hours between games, who knows who will be ready.  That leaves VT with just 5 healthy scholarship guys.

You have a better chance of playing pick up sticks with your butt checks than seeing georgia tech win an ACC road game. Over the past 7 seasons, gt is 8-46 (15%) away from the ATL in league play. I could accentuate that stat in a couple of ways: the jackets have won just 2 of their last 19 ACC road games… or I could say they’ve won 2 of their last 7! Both statements are true since they lost 13 in a row on the road before winning at wake to end last season (Update: georgia tech lost 59-50 at 2-9 wake… well, now 3-9 wake… The loss means georgia tech is in dead last in the ACC all by themselves). They are 1-5 on the road this year, with the lone win at 7-3 nc state (go figure, it’s been that kind of a year).

Tech has owned tech since joining the ACC. VT is 8-3 in ACC games, their best mark against any program (they are also 8-3 against wake).

Between VT’s success in Short Turnaround games, gt’s road record, and VT’s history with gt, I’m going to go ahead and pencil in a ‘W’ for the Hokies (notice I said pencil and did NOT mention wearing skirts or uva gear).

Talk about a contrast in styles — florida state, as usual, has a great front court with James the enforcer inside and 6’11″ Gibson also a talented shot blocker and athlete. georgia tech, meanwhile, has zero post talent. They have just 3 low post players on their roster. Freshman Julian Royal was supposed to help as a stud recruit, but he’s been a bust so far averaging just 4.6 ppg and 2.3 rebounds in 16 minutes per contest (though he does shoot 45% from the field).

Glen Rice, Jr. is the only offensive player you have to worry about, but he scored just 13 points in the 2 games against VT last year so the Hokies know something about defending him. Rice has scored 19+ on 7 occasions this year, including 28 against duke, so he can light it up. But if he’s off, the jackets have no prayer.

Even though Paul Hewitt is gone, now at george mason, this gt team looks a lot like the past teams — they don’t play patient defense (a lot of steals but dead last in FG% Defense) and they turn the ball over a lot (-3.0 turnover margin per game). Maybe… maybe… VT can get some fast break points off turnovers.

Hmm… I’m really tempted to guarantee a win on Saturday. Let’s see how I feel that morning and whether or not I feel like potentially wearing a skirt.

TANGENT: How low has VT fallen? I was watching uva lose at clemson on Tuesday and they posted uva’s NCAA resume. They listed VT as a ‘bad loss’. Uh, we’re a Top 100 RPI team. That’s a bad loss?!

STARTERS*:

*Note: Greenberg has announced that for the 2nd game in a row Tech’s starters will be determined by who practices the hardest the day before the game. Last game that was Rankin, Green, Hudson, Barksdale, and Davila, so the starters are TBD.

*Rice has been suspended, expect Morris to start in his place and Royal to play more minutes.

STATS:

Note: these stats are for ACC games ONLY. georgia tech’s stats do not include their 59-50 loss at wake on Wednesday.

How sad is it that VT is 8th in the ACC in scoring offense while averaging less than 60 points per ACC game?

BORING FACTS ABOUT gt:

• Established: 1885
• Type: Public
• Mascot: Buzz
• The term ‘ramblin’ wreck’ comes from the makeshift motor vehicles gt engineers were using for projects in South American jungles in the late 19th century.
• Students: 13,750 undergrad (NERDS!) and 7,000 postgrad (NERDS!)
• Notable Alums/Students: President Jimmy Carter, Jeff Foxworthy, several astronauts, Chris Bosh, Matt Price, Dennis Scott, Stephon Marbury, John Salley, Mark Teixeira, Nomar Garciaparra, Kenny Anderson, and Stewark Cink. John Heisman coached gt.
• ACC Basketball Titles: 3 (last in 1993)
• ACC Football Titles: 3 (one less than the real Tech who has been in the league 25 fewer years) — last – ’09
• I hate the stat where they say ‘The winner of the VT/gt football game has won the Coastal Division every year… uh, that’s true, but we’ve won 5 of those 7 games, capturing 5 of 7 Coastal titles… so it isn’t comparing apples to apples. That’s like the winner of the VT/uva game has won the Commonwealth Cup over the last 8 years.

Popularity: 12% [?]

Spread: VT by 12.5 (Wow!)

I probably owe an apology to boston college.  In my preview before the first match-up of these two birds, I said that bc could potentially be the worst team in ACC history.  That was based on these facts (these bullets are my exact workings from before):

• 10.7%: bc returned just 263 of their 2,440 points from a year ago.  And you thought we got hit hard!
• Of the 263 points returning, two of those guys were walk-ons, and another (Danny Rubin) averages just 7 minutes per game.
• They lost to holy cross, umass (by 36), saint louis, new mexico, penn state, boston u., harvard (by 21), and 5-20 rhode island.
• bc starts 5 freshmen, and believe me, this ain’t the Fab 5.  This is El Cinco Stinko.  Four of them are 3-star recruits, which isn’t bad but also not great, and the other, Heckmann, is from Germany… and he ain’t Dirk Nowitzki.  They have 9 freshmen out of the 15 guys on their roster.  Their 3 seniors are all walk-ons and their only junior is a transfer. Much like wake forest a year ago, this experience will help them, but it’s gonna be a blood bath this year.

I theorized they would be worse than wake forest’s team from a year ago, a team that went 1-15 and their average margin of defeat in those 15 games was 20 points.  Yep, I was wrong.  As I was writing that, the eagles defeated clemson.  I still was confident and guaranteed a victory.  Then, a few days later, bc took down the Hokies 61-59:

• Recap
• Quote-unquote-Highlights

Because we lost, I had to wear uva gear to our game at uva –  My Punishment.  The two seniors, Davila and Hudson, combined for 27 points but that was about it.  Eddie finished with 8, but 6 of those were in garbage time after the game was just about decided (don’t let the final score fool you — the game was close the entire time but bc was up 11 with 3 minutes to go and up 7 with 16 seconds left.  Clifford had 15, Humphrey 14, and Anderson 12 for the eagles, showing their typical balanced attack.

A week ago I told my buddies I was going to guarantee another victory.  And this was before the clemson game.  After all, we didn’t have Erick Green for that first meeting.  I was going to guarantee a win in this game or I’d wear a cheerleading outfit (skirt) to the georgia tech game/Hokie Celebration a week later.  But you know what, I can’t guarantee a win.  I think we will win, but after watching Tech’s lack of effort at miami, I have no confidence anymore.  And I’m tired of looking like an idiot.  So I’m backing off my guarantee.  But I’m still not apologizing to the eagles — while this team has well exceeded my expectations, and shown that Donahue is a heck of a coach, they still stink.  Their 3 wins just shows how bad the ACC is this year.

Anyway, here’s an updated preview of the eagles…

For a team that is mostly freshmen (and not highly recruited), they play hard and very well together.  They aren’t athletic, so they make it a half court game.  They execute their offense well and shoot a lot of 3s (since 33% from 3-point range is the same as 50% from inside the arc).  They hustle on defense and despite a lack of size (other than Clifford, their 7-footer, who plays like a big, slow, red dog) they are scrappy on the glass, winning the 50/50 balls VT hasn’t all year.

As I aluded to above, bc started 2-1 in conference much to my shock.  Then they lost 6 in a row.  But just when you thought they were starting to slide, they defeated the hottest team in the ACC Wednesday night, taking down florida state at bc 64-60, snapping the ‘noles 7 game winning streak.  Go figure.

While the eagles do have 3 wins in conference, they are 0-4 on the road in conference play.  They’ve only played 5 road games all season and lost all of them.  I’m still not taking the bait on guaranteeing a win, though.

OUTLOOK:

If you are looking for a high scoring, offensive game, then you are screwed.  These are two of the worst offenses in the ACC meeting up.  This game could just as easily be on ESPN Crapper as it could be on ESPNU.  Both teams average less than 60 ppg in ACC play, and are near the bottom in FG% and Offensive Rebounding %.  Tech shoots FTs well (best in the ACC), while bc is last at that, too.  At least both teams are decent 3-point shooting teams, and as always, the winner will come down to whomever shoots a higher 3-point percentage.

THE SERIES:

• Overall: bc 14-7
• At bc All Time: VT 5-4 (bc won last year)
• In ACC Play: bc 8-5 (bc has won 4 in a row)
• At VT in ACC games: VT 4-2

STARTERS:

Patrick Heckmann, their freshman from Germany who was averaging over 9 ppg, is out with mono.  But he had just 1 point in the first meeting.

Their entire starting lineup is guys in their first year playing for bc (Humphrey is a transfer from oregon).

STATS:

BORING FACTS ABOUT boston college (“Strength, skill, character”):

Popularity: 10% [?]

Spread:

• The bad news is VT is 0-3 as road favorites in ACC play this year.
• The good news is VT is 6-point ‘dogs in this game and Tech is 1-0 as road ‘dogs (uva)!

It has been all about the u lately, and the hurricanes come into this game riding the gravy train with biscuit wheels.  After getting off to their typical slow start in conference play at 1-3, the canes have won 4 straight, 3 of which were on the road and culminating with a win at duke on Sunday.  And don’t think that game was a fluke, the canes led by 14 at the half and even after the blue devils tied it in the final 30 seconds and sent the game to OT, the u responded by scoring the first 6 points of overtime and holding on to win 78-74 for their first ever win at Cameron Indoor, sending thousands of nerds home in tears.

The canes will present a formidable challenge for the Hokies.  While they have basically zero depth inside (similar to the Hokies last year), they have two extremely talented post players in 6’10″, 284 lbs Reggie Johnson (I think I saw him on Finding Sasquatch last week), and 6’11″ florida-transfer Kenny Kadji.  Both are juniors and have been averaging 12.3 ppg and 16.3 ppg in ACC play respectively.  Johnson had 27 points and 12 rebounds against duke.  Those two guys combined for 42 points against the blue devils, while duke’s four post players scored just 18 points.  That’s domination.

miami will have as many as 4 guards on the court at a time.  When they sub out Kadji or Johnson, they’ll replace them with a guard, not a forward.  So if the Hokies can get either of those 2 bigs in foul trouble, it will help negate their size advantage inside.  Swoope and Akpejiori are their backups inside but they play very sparingly.

Speaking of their guards, they love to jack up the 3-pointers.  Their 7.4 made 3s per game is 2nd in the league to duke, and they hit a very respectable 36% of those attempts (3rd in the league).  Malcolm Grant is in range from the time he steps in the arena and will shoot from anywhere inside halfcourt.  He has 135 3-point attempts on the season and makes 33% of those.  Durand Scott you will remember from the ACC Tournament two years ago.  He torched the Hokies down the stretch.  Scott scares you more with his handle than his shot, so you are happy when he settles to shoot from deep.  Shane Larkin (37%), Trey McKinney Jones (34%), and Rion Brown (40%) also like to jack it up from deep.  Even Kadji will shoot from deep.  He is 17/35 from behind the arc on the season, going 4/5 against duke.  But I think the Hokies would be fine with him chucking from out there, meaning he isn’t inside to crash the boards or score in the paint.  Their 3-point percentage and makes are way down in league play, though.  When they are hot, their tough to stop, when they aren’t, they are very beatable.  And if you know ‘the streak’, you know how important 3-point % is.  Both teams are good at defending the 3, so whomever defends it better will win (shocker, I’m sticking with the streak).

miami loves to run the high pick-and-roll.  And imagine this — their screener cuts hard down the lane and they actually feed him the ball!  Or, if you collapse on the screener, that leaves the man with the ball open for a 3.  The challenge is the defender out on the screener has to flash to prevent the man with the ball from driving or getting an open 3.  That means if the screener gets separation, the other post player(s) has to come over to help.  That can lead to mismatches if it is Doe Doe or Eddie up against a 6’10″ 285 lbs. guy or a 6’11″ guy.  If the Hokies play two bigs (as Ryan points out), that will help with the help defense.  But it also can lead to open guys off the ball for open 3s.  For the u, it is all about creating mismatches.  The Hokies will have to really hustle, and help, on defense and the guards will need to fight through screens, going under will lead to open 3-pointers.

Every year I keep thinking the canes will take a step forward, and most of their guys have 3 years of experience now.  The canes of old would lose this game and fall into the lower half of the league.  Will this be the year they finally take a leap into the upper half of the league?

HO-KEY TO WINNING: On defense, double down on Johnson/Kadji, forcing miami to beat you from deep (and hope you can rotate in time/they are off).  On offense, be aggressive and attack their bigs, trying to get them in foul trouble (Johnson is a foul machine).

SERIES:

• Overall: 10-10
• In ACC Play: VT 9-4 (Tech was 1-6 against the canes in the Big East)
• At miami in ACC Play: VT 3-1
• Last Year: VT 72, miami 68 (@VT)

STARTERS:

STATS:

Note: these stats are for ACC games ONLY (8 for both teams).

TRENDING (Freshmen Edition):

HOT:

• Dorian Finney-Smith – after missing 25 consecutive shots over 6 games, Doe Doe went 5/8 from the floor against clemson, including 2/3 from behind the arc.
• Marquis Rankin – 8/14 from the field over his last 4 games (8/32 — 25% — before that)

NOT:

• Robert Brown – the freshman is averaging just 4.9 ppg in ACC play and is hitting just 29% of his shots (he averaged 8.5 ppg and hit 40% of his shots out of conference).
• C.J. Barksdale – just 6 total points in his last 6 games, including 4 goose eggs (2/10 from the field over those 6 games).

BORING FACTS ABOUT the u:

• Founded in 1925
• Type: Private
• Undergrads: 9.8k
• They have more out of state students than Floridians
• Mascot: Sebastian the Ibis
• Invention: Swagger
• Film: ‘The u’, an ESPN 30 for 30 film, is definitely in my top 5 sports movies of all time
• 5 time national champs in football
• Former VT coaching great, Bill Foster, resurrected their basketball program in the 1980s before he came to VT
• Notable ‘people’ (alums/part time students): “The Rock” played football at the u in the early 90s, Ray Liotta, Steve-O, Sly Stallone, Gloria Estefan, Ben Folds (Five), Bruce Hornsby, Enrique Iglesias, Jill Arrington (what happened to her?), Roy Firestone, Suzy Kolber, Ryan Braun, Pat “The Bat” Burrell, Rick Barry, and too many football players to name – Ted Hendricks, Jim Kelly, Jim Otto, and Michael Irvin are in the Hall of Fame, Vinny Testaverde and Gino Torretta won the Heisman.

TANGENT: Deja vu all over again — clemson was down 14 to maryland with 7:30 to go on Tuesday.  They had 3 foul shots to tie it with 10 seconds left, but senior Andre Young missed the first 2, and they missed a shot at the buzzer (that in this case would have won the game), and they lost.  They are not clutch from the charity stripe with the chance to tie.

Popularity: 15% [?]

Spread: VT by 4 over clemson (is Vegas not watching our games)
duke was favored by 4.5 (seriously, Vegas seems to have a lofty opinion of us… yet we are 1-7 against the spread in 2012).

It’s two previews for the price of one! Double your pleasure! (“Normally you pay extra for that, Cotton.” – Dodgeball) Since the Hokies play two full games in less than 48 hours, I figured kill two previews with one post. Each year each ACC team plays a back-to-back in approximately 48 hours (the Short Turnaround Sequence, as I call it). This year, the Hokies have to do it twice (again in mid-February). Yep, our schedule keeps getting better and better (sarcasm). At least both of these games are at home. In fact, Saturdays game against clemson is Virginia Tech’s first weekend ACC home game. That’s right, we didn’t get a weekend home game until February (see my note above about our schedule).

The Hokies have actually been dominant in the back end of their ACC Short Turnarounds. While Tech is just 3-4 in the first game (3 of which have been against duke), VT is 6-1 in the second game of a Short Turnaround. Keep in mind their opponent usually doesn’t have the same turnaround. That tells you the Hokies have been able to quickly recover and focus on the back end. I also think the short turnaround boosts your shooting — you tend to get into the flow of the game more quickly since you played so recently.

So what does this all mean? I’m not predicting anything in the duke game, but I fully expect to see the Hokies beat clemson on Saturday and push their record to 7-1 in these ‘doubleheaders’, so to speak. Oh, by the way, Hokie Guru has GUARANTEED A WIN OVER duke! No, he hasn’t promised to wear pink uva stuff if we lose. And no, he hasn’t gone crazy (at least any more so than usual — just messin’ with ya).

While I will not guarantee a win, this duke team is beatable… and yes, by the Hokies. They are mostly roll players, not stars. Granted, they are very good roll players, some of which are McDonald’s All-Americans, but they are simply not as talented as in past years. Yes, they are #5 in the country, but ohio state blew them out by 22 at osu, and temple won by 5 over the blue devils at temple. duke struggled at clemson, although they did pull away at maryland late in the game last week. Still, we all know the Hokies can take down a highly ranked duke team in the Cassell, we’ve done it twice:

• 2/26/11 – VT 64, #1 duke 60 – HIGHLIGHTS
• 2/17/05 – VT 67, #7 duke 65 (maybe my favorite win of all time after losing by 35 at duke a month earlier)

The question is, can the Hokies slow down the duke attack and keep pace with them on the scoreboard? We shall see. To beat a dead horse, the key is getting off to a decent start. Since the Hokies will no doubt be juiced playing the #5 blue devils, we might see the level of energy we’d like to have seen all year, and that could help at the get-go.

clemson simply isn’t that good. Yes, they are 3-3 and we are 1-5, but I’m telling you, they aren’t that good (yes, I realize neither are we… but we are at home and we are NOT falling to 1-7). c-l-e-m-s-ohhhhh-n is just 11-9 on the season overall. They also lost by 2 at bc, so they have the same black eye VT does. They have lost 3 games to teams from south carolina — the gamecocks, of course, but also college of charleston and coastal carolina (the latter two were at home). They also lost to utep and hawaii. In the ACC, two of their wins are over wake and georgia tech, both at home against ACC bottom-feeders. The one good win they have is a 20-point win over fsu in their ACC opener. Yep, you read that right, they blew out fsu by 20. And it wasn’t even that close — it was 32-10 with 6 minutes to go in the first half… but that was apparently before the noles figured things out.

Update: I watched clemson lose to uva by 4 on Tuesday night, and I’ve seen them play several times this year now. They just don’t impress me offensively. They don’t have good jumpshooters other than Smith. Young shoots for a decent percentage but he’s so short he has to be wide open. The game itself was very similar to the VT @ uva game — clemson led by 4 at the half just like the Hokies, only scored 10 points in the first 10 minutes of the 2nd half just like the Hokies, but couldn’t contain Mike Scott or Joe Harris like VT did. The tigers battled back but still lost. But they can pressure the ball out by half court and that could give the Hokies fits (especially Rankin). clemson gets 3 days of rest before facing VT.

Did you know… VT was favored on Saturday at maryland? In fact, Tech has been favored in every game but the unc and uva games this year.

THE SERIES:

vs duke -

• All Time: duke 37-8
• At VT: duke 8-6
• In ACC Play: duke 8-3
• At VT in ACC Play: duke 3-2
• Last Year: VT won at VT, duke won in the ACC Tournament Semi-Finals

vs c-l-e-m-s-ohhh-n -

• All Time: VT 12-11
• At VT: VT 7-5
• In ACC Play: clemson 6-4
• At VT in ACC Play: clemson 3-2
• VT’s first ACC win game on 1/15/05 against clemson at the Cassell (59-57)
• Last Year: clemson won 69-60 at clemson in the ACC regular season finale, locking up the #4 seed for clemson and dropping VT to the #6 seed.

STARTERS:

*6’9″ Milton Jennings had started up until the uva game Tuesday. He has been suspended for academic reasons and is doubtful for Saturday. He was averaging 8.9 ppg and was good in transition, though he’s a lousy shot like most of the tigers.

My quick breakdown of the teams:

duke:

• Rivers is no Irving. The son of Doc is a good slasher and a solid 3-point shooter (38%), but he can’t pick you apart like Irving could and isn’t as good of a passer. He averages more turnovers than assists. He’s averaged less than 8 ppg in 3 ACC road games.
• Kelly isn’t as soft as in past years. Still, he’s a 6’11″ guy that can burn you from the outside. But he’s getting to the line a lot more this year than in past years. He can kill you with the shot-fake, and drive to the hoop. And he is a solid rebounder on the offensive end, using his height (and ACC officials have NOT been calling over the back this year).
• Mason Plumlee is a beast inside. But he is AWFUL from the foul line. He makes Shaq look like Reggie Miller. He went 2/11 from the line in one game, and 2/10 in another. He hits 62% from the field and 48% from the line… so foul him (“Thumb a Plum”???)
• Curry likely wants to avenge the goose egg he posted in Blacksburg last year with his father, VT legend Dell Curry watching. He did have 10 against the Hokies in the ACC Tourney, but can he step up in the arena where his dad’s jersey hangs?
• Dawkins is a lot like Moseley was for maryland.
• Bench: Miles Plumlee, Thornton, Cook, and Hairston provide minutes off the bench, but none of them are spectacular. Thornton is good defensively and can drill 3-pointers when open, Miles is soft, Cook is learning how to play in the ACC, and Hairston just provides depth inside.

clemson:

• Milton Jennings, the former 5-star recruit and current huge bust, has been suspended for academic reasons. Don’t expect him to play Saturday. He missed the uva game.
• Young is what you expect/want from a 5-9 guy – loves to bomb treys (36%, 45 makes) and can really drive and dish (he has an almost 3-to-1 assist to turnover ratio… that’s awesome).
• Smith is a solid outside shooter who has really developed his mid-range game.
• Booker is no Booker… as in even though Devin’s improved over the years, he just even close to the talent Trevor (with the Wizards, I believe) is/was.
• Narcisse is JT Thompson without the talent. High energy, and that’s it.
• Hall and Sapp are freshmen guards in the ACC, which means lots of mistakes and learning on the job.
• Yes, they do have a 7-footer like every other VT opponent (he’s actually 7’2″). Catalin Baciu averages 4 points and 2 rebounds in 10 minutes… oh, and he isn’t much of a shot-blocker.
• clemson has a veteran lineup but they simply aren’t that talented. They have the type of veterans where you hope your stud recruits take over for them… but the tigers don’t really have any big recruits in the last few classes. Their only 4-star from the past 2 years is freshman Bernard Sullivan, who averages 1.3 ppg. Jennings was a 5-star and Booker a 4-star, both of which appear to be a joke (especially with Jennings). This is a team that way overachieved last year and is coming back to reality this year.

STATS:

Note: these stats are for ACC games ONLY.

The ACC quit showing a lot of the stats they used to show, so that’s why this is a bit leaner than in the past. Not sure why they changed it mid-season.

MY THOUGHTS ON duke:

Take the biggest nerd from your school, then from 4,999 other schools, and you have duke. I’m still waiting for Fox to produce a reality show where they take a florida state frat and move them to duke for a semester and let them run wild. Those nerds wouldn’t leave their dorm rooms for three months.

MY THOUGHTS ON clemson:

They beat us in the ACC Championship Game in football back in December. They beat us in our ACC regular season finale last basketball season, effectively driving a stake into our NCAA Tournament hearts. I saw it is time to exact some revenge. Who’s with me?!

Popularity: 12% [?]

The Hokies head to the Communist Center on Saturday to take on the maryland terrapins.  This marks the fourth straight weekend Tech has been on the road to open ACC play (total BS… that would never happen to unc or duke).  We’ll see if the Hokies can build off of their road win Sunday at uva and get the ball rolling as they close out the season with 11 straight ACC games.  And the Hokies are getting the terps at the right time — Wednesday night maryland lost to their big rival, duke (as if duke cares about them), while naming the court for former coach Gary Williams.  They had a packed house and shot their wad.  They will not have a packed house, or that level of energy, on Saturday after dropping their third straight game.

But there’s no reason to fear these turtles, their talent has dropped off quite a bit.  That said, the Hokies cannot take anyone for granted, and maryland has exceeded my expectations, largely due to new Head Coach Mark Turgeon.  Turgeon is really solid — he was 20+ games all four years he was at texas a&m before this, and won 20+ three of the final four years he was at wichita state before that.  He led the aggies to the NCAA Tournament all four years in College Station.

maryland is led by sophomore guard Terell Stoglin, the ACC’s leading scorer at 20.9 ppg.  And there’s been no drop-off for him in ACC play, he’s averaging 20.4 ppg in their five ACC tilts.  Stoglin shredded the Tech defense in the meeting in Blacksburg last year, scoring 25 points on 7/12 FGs and 10/10 FTs.  He regularly blew by the Hokie defense who either had to grab and foul him, or let him go for layups.  Stoglin is more versatile this year, becoming a deadly 3-point shooter.  He’s shooting 40% from deep with 2.5 makes per game (2nd best in the ACC).

The terps recently added Alex Len, the 7’1″ Ukraine train.  He had to wait until the end of the semester to play but has averaged over 7 ppg since.  He missed the temple game and only played 12 minutes against duke on Wednesday, so we’ll see how hard and long he can go.  We all know how 7-footers give the Hokies fits, so this will be key.  Len is good in the post and has a solid midrange game.  He’ll drift out and shoot from midrange at times.  He’s hitting 62% of his FGs, so you know he’s got a nice stroke and has good post moves.

Other than that, the terps have no one else that concerns me.  Sean Mosley is a veteran who averages 10 ppg and 5 rpg, but doesn’t scare you.  He can be invisible for entire games.  He has improved his 3-point shooting and hits 42%, but doesn’t attempt a ton.

James Padgett would be a role player if they had more depth inside, but instead is forced to play a lot.  He averages 9 ppg and 6 rpg.

Pe’Shon Howard reminds me of a Terrell Bell — he’s out there for his defense.  But while Bell became a decent outside shooter, Howard hits just 24% from deep.

Nick Faust was their top recruit, but dude is struggling (I know we feel their pain).  He’s shooting just 32% from the field, 54% from the line, and 20% from behind the arc.

With all that, I’d say Turgeon has squeezed every drop from these guys to get to 12-7.  They are a middle of the pack ACC team at best, and Turgeon has them playing well.

For the Hokies, let’s hope Erick Green continues his dominance of the terps.  EG dropped 24 points on 12/16 shooting at maryland last year (he’s sort of from the area so no doubt gets hyped with the extra family and friends).  That helped EG snag ACC Player of the Week.  Green followed that act with 20 points in the game in Blacksburg.

Dorenzo Hudson has scored 42 points off the bench in three games, and he’ll need to give a similar spark Saturday.  It did not work well when Zo had to play the point Wednesday with Rankin out and Green in foul trouble, so let’s hope Marquis is back to spell Green at times and allow Hudson to work off the ball.

The big key is can Dorian Finney-Smith get going.  While he’s still working very hard, diving for loose balls as he did at the end of the uva game and getting steals as he did against byu, it seems like the other team has a power play when he’s on the offensive end.  Since the start of 2012, Doe Doe has made a field goal in just ONE game.  He was 4/9 against florida state, but 0/19 in the other 5 games.  He’s tallied just 11 points this calendar year.  The Hokies have to find a way to get him going.  The problem has been he hasn’t been able to get the offensive rebounds and put-backs he was getting earlier in the year against smaller post players, and he really only has one move to the basket… drive with his right hand straight at the baseline, get forced deep, and have to huck it to the left corner while falling out of bounds.  And his 3-point shot has disappeared.  We know he can do it, it is just about getting confidence.

Another key freshman, Robert Brown, is also hitting the wall it seems.  In 2012, he’s hit just 14/45 FGs (31%), 5/23 3s (22%), and most disappointing, he’s just 4/9 from the free throw line.

The great sign of late has been Jarell Eddie.  JE has 20 points and 24 rebounds in the last two games, including his first career double-double against byu (12/14).

HO-KEYS TO WINNING:

• Suck the air out: Like I said, Wednesday was an emotional game for maryland, this won’t be.  If the Hokies can get up early like they did last year, they’ll take the crowd out of it… I’ll believe it when I see it as Tech has really struggled in the first half in every game this year on offense except for the unc game.
• Stifle Stoglin: Stoglin is the only guy you really fear.  If Rankin is back, he can give you a few minutes on him.  But it is going to largely be up to Green, Brown, and Hudson to get out on him on the perimeter, and the other defenders to rotate and help.  He’s their scariest player so do what you can to limit him.
• Push it real good: maryland is not a good defensive team.  They can be beaten in transition and they get lost on picks.  If Tech actually runs some picks, they will have guys open on backdoors or pick and rolls.  But we’ll see if VT does this, or just passes around the perimeter.  The Hokies also need to drive at the tin early.  They get teams in foul trouble and get to the line when they are aggressive.  Don’t settle for 3s.

THE SERIES:

• All Time: maryland 27-10
• At maryland: md 16-4
• In ACC Play: VT 6-4
• At maryland in ACC Play: maryland 3-2

VT swept the twerps last year:

• 2.16.11 @ VT: VT 91, md 83 (Recap)  |  Highlights
• 1.21.11 @md: VT 74, md 57 (Recap)  |  Highlights

STARTERS:

*Alex Len will start if he’s healthy.  He missed the temple game and only played 12 minutes against duke while working back from an ankle injury.  Len would start over Pankey if that’s the case.

maryland, like VT, has a highly touted freshman who is struggling.  Nick Faust is averaging 7.2 ppg, but hitting just 32% of his FGs, 20% of his 3s, and 54% of his FTs.

STATS:

Note: these stats are for ACC games ONLY (5 for both teams).

What these stats tell me is maryland is awful at transition defense.  Teams shoot low 3-point % against them, but a very high percentage inside the arc.  That has to mean transition points, and poor post defense.  They also don’t have many steals which means they aren’t taking away what you want to do in the half court (not sure what that is for VT).

Neither team is very strong at rebounding, and if Len doesn’t play big minutes the terps don’t have a height advantage on VT.

Popularity: 13% [?]

Spread: VT by 2.

The Hokies go on a cougar hunt Wednesday night in the Cassell, hoping to knock off the byu cougars in Tech’s final out of conference game of the regular season.  Tech is 11-3 away from the ACC, and had won six in a row to close out 2011.

byu is coming off a 32-5 season that saw them make the Sweet 16, losing to florida in overtime.  But All-American Jimmer Fredette, who was open from the time he walked in the arena, is gone, averaging 7.6 ppg for Sacramento in the NBA.  Their second leading scorer, Jackson Emery, is also gone.

This year 6’8″ senior Noah Hartsock has really stepped up his game, up from 8.5 ppg last year to 17.5 this year.  He’s shooting 58% from the field and can tear it up down low, or with a nice midrange shot.  Brandon Davies (their third leading scorer last year), Matt Carlino (their PG and leading assist man this year), and Charles Abouo all average between 11.5 and 14.1 ppg.  The final starter, wing Brock Zlystra, averages 9.0.  They score a lot and will push the ball, averaging 80 ppg.  But they don’t get much off their bench, especially with Stephen Rogers battling injuries.  They also shoot a lot of 3-pointers, averaging 7.4 makes per game.  They have eight players that average more than one 3-point attempt per game (VT has just five with more than nine attempts).  Let’s hope they come out uva-cold from deep.

byu, as always, has good size (see below for more on that).  The Hokies will have to battle on the boards.  Tech’s allowed 32 offensive rebounds in their last two games while grabbing just 15 themselves.  byu has not been a great offensive rebounding team this year, despite their size.  But they are in the top 10 in the nation at defensive rebounding, so the Hokies have their work cut out for them trying to get second chances.

Neither team has a big time win this season.  Both teams are 0-for against top 50 RPI teams* (VT is 0-5, byu is 0-3).  But both teams are undefeated against teams ranked 51-100.  (VT 3-0, byu 4-0).  Well, guess what – both teams are ranked between 51-100 (VT at 68, byu at 56).  So something has gotta give there.

*VT’s win over uva knocked the hoos out of the top 50 in the RPI.

SERIES: First ever meeting

STARTERS:

The cougars always have great size… think about it, who are they competing with?  For members of the LDS Church, the answer is no one.  So they get the best and biggest Mormon players in the land and world.

STATS:

BORING FACTS ABOUT brigham young:

Popularity: 14% [?]

Spread: uva by 7.5

Who can play the role of spoiler this year? WE CAN! uva swept the Hokies last year, effectively knocking the Hokies out of the Big Dance. Well, revenge is a dish best served cold, and the forecast calls for pretty cold weather on Sunday. We are 0-4… boo who. Let’s kick their butts!

My how the tide has turned. Over the last four years, the Hokies have finished fourth or tied for fourth in three of those years. uva, meanwhile, has been in the bottom half of the league each of the last four seasons. But now Tech sits at 0-4, and the hoos are ranked and well on their way to a first round bye.

uva is led by Mike Scott. Yep, the same Mike Scott that has been around since the dawn of time…

• Mike Scott’s so old, he had a class with Thomas Jefferson
• Mike Scott’s so old, he babysat Doe Doe
• Mike Scott’s so old, his birth certificate is in Roman numerals
• Mike Scott’s so old, he can remember the last time uva made the ACC Tournament Semi-Finals (1995)
• Mike Scott’s so old, over 100 current, active NBA players are younger than him (that’s an actual fact)

All kidding aside, Mike Scott is probably the MVP of the ACC this year. He may not be the best player in the league, but he means the most to his team. He’s averaging 16.9 ppg and 8.9 rebounds per game, both top 5 in the ACC. Oh, and have I mentioned he owns the Hokies?

Mike Scott has 100 career points and 52 career rebounds against VT in 7 previous appearances. He’s scored at least 20 in the last 3 meetings and snagged over 30 total rebounds.

Is it all bad for the Hokies? Well, Assane Sene, uva’s 7-footer (yep, every team except for VT has a serviceable 7-footer) rolled his ankle at the end of the 1st half against georgia tech and, based on what I saw, won’t play Sunday (not confirmed).

If you are wondering about uva’s playing style, my buddy said it best… “You’ll want to walk down on the court, over to their bench, and punch Tony Bennett (their head coach) in the face.” And he went to wazzu, (aka: washington state), the last place he coached at.

If Bennett’s style was an animal, it would be a python. Like his dad, they love to milk the clock and keep everything in the half court. They won’t attack the offensive glass with more than a couple of guys, falling back and forcing you to beat their man defense in the half court. That said, Scott is so talented they’ll still get offensive rebounds. And uva is one of the top teams in the nation at Defensive Rebounding, while VT is the worst team in the ACC in that stat (largely thanks to unc’s 19 offensive rebounds in 36 opportunities Thursday).

They really only have 2 1/2 guys that scare you on offense, with everyone else focused on defense.

PG Jontel Evans can’t shoot, but runs the O and is great on D. Sene is their force inside with no post moves what-so-ever. Meanwhile, Scott is extremely talented, both with his back to the basket in the low post and he can go out and hit midrange jumpers. Joe Harris can shoot the lights out (as he did against Tech last year). He’s a tough match-up because of his height (6’6″). 50% of his shots are 3s, but he also shoots over 50% inside the arc. But you worry more about him on the perimeter. And Sammy Zeglinski is dangerous from 3-point range (he also won’t buy Callahan Auto Parts!).

FYI: Yes, I plan to man-up on my personal bet — I guaranteed a win against bc or I’d wear uva stuff to this game… stay tuned.

THE SERIES:

• All Time: uva 81-52
• At uva: uva 32-12 (but VT has won 2 of the last 4 after a 40 year drought)
• In ACC Play: uva 8-7
• At uva in ACC Play: uva 5-2

STARTERS:

*Sene rolled his ankle against ga tech and did not return. If he’s out, Akil Mitchell (6’8″, Sophomore, 3.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg) will likely start.

uva does not have much depth due to transfers so this could be a big issue for them.

STATS:

Note: these stats are for ACC games ONLY (4 for VT, 3 for uva). uva’s defense is allowing the 2nd fewest points per game in the nation (not good news with our inept offense).

Popularity: 18% [?]

Spread: unc by 6.5

The #8 by-golly unc tar heels stomp into Blacksburg Thursday night, angrier than an old man sending back soup at a deli after being trounced by 33 points at the hands of florida state on Saturday.  But you know what?  There should be some fire in the belly of the Hokies, too, who have now lost 3 games in a row to open the ACC slate.  The Hokies took down the tar holes just 9 weeks ago in Blackburg in football on a Thursday night, so why not make that a tradition?

Normally I focus a lot on the opponent in these previews, but this time I’m going to put the spotlight on us more than usual.  I mean, summarizing the heels is pretty easy:

• They probably have the 2nd most talent in the country behind syracuse.
• Harrison Barnes (SF) is the best player in the ACC and will be a top 5 pick in this NBA Draft.
• John “Beanpole” Henson (PF) leads the ACC in rebounding and blocks, is 7th in points, and is another projected Lottery Pick this year.
• Kendall Marshall (PG) leads the ACC in assists (by far — 3 more than #2), sits 2nd nationally in assists, and could be picked in the mid-teens in this NBA Draft.
• Tyler Zeller (C) is also projected as a First Round Draft Pick this year.  He sits at #4 in the league in rebounding, 8th in blocks, and 10th in blocks.
• They have two freshmen that were McDonald’s All-Americans (P.J. Hairston and James Michael McAdoo (VA)) coming off the bench.
• As I said, they are going to probably be very hostile and motivated after the whipping they took by the seminoles.  The best chance at beating the heels is when they are soft and unfocused… I don’t think that will be the case Thursday.

But like I said, enough about them.  Let’s look in the mirror a bit critically.

WHY WE ARE 0-3:

If you haven’t figured this out, I’m a stat guy.   Maybe some day I’ll become the Billy Beane of basketball and they’ll make a movie about me where Matthew McConaughey plays me (he wishes).  To me, the numbers tell it all.  Let’s look side-by-side at where VT ranked in comparison to the rest of the ACC at the end of the out of conference schedule (so through the 2nd okie state game), and where VT ranks against their ACC brethren in ACC games ONLY (so a small sample size, but you’ll see what I’m getting at).

STATS:

A few things stand out:

• The Bad:
• 3-Pt% Defense (-13%): We were #1 in the nation in 3-Point % Defense for most of December.  We are DEAD LAST in the ACC in this stat through 3 games.  What that starts to tell me is maybe it was our level of competition pre-ACC, and that we aren’t flashing out on shooters as well.
• FG% (-10%): Tech is DEAD LAST in FG%.  And keep in mind, while VT played an awesome fsu defense, wake and bc were near the bottom of the league heading into ACC play.  This stat scares me.  The lack of offense is, has been (for years), (and will be?) a concern.  But to fall that drastically?!
• Robert Brown may be hitting a wall (or is adjusting to the talent in the ACC).  He is just 4/14 from the field in ACC play, and started 1/7 from deep before hitting 2 late 3-pointers Saturday.
• Doe Doe also is really struggling.  He’s put up 2 goose eggs in 3 ACC games, and is just 6/25 with 17 total points in Tech’s last 5 games.
• 3-Pt Offense (-13% and -2.4 makes per game): Most of the ACC has seen their 3-point percentages drop, but Tech’s has been really bad.  They are hitting just 25% from deep, and with their stagnant offense and poor transition game, this has really exposed their offensive struggles.  Eddie is 6/14 on 3s in ACC play, but is just 4/15 from the field in the last 2 games.  The Hokies really needed him to step up Saturday, and he didn’t have a made FG until the final 10 seconds when he nailed 2 meaningless 3-pointers.
• PPG (-13.5): See above.
• The Good?
• FTs: Still #1 in the ACC!  This has been a real bright spot on O… when the Hokies are aggressive and attack the rim.
• TO Margin (+5.5 and #1 in the ACC!): Wow, imagine being the best in the league at getting more turnovers than your opponent and still going 0-3.  Wait, we are 0-3.  That shows how bad our offense has been — we are getting 5 more possessions per game than our opponents (and 2 really bad ones) and still cannot beat them.

STARTERS:

* We’ll see if Erick Green is able to return from his knee injury that cost him the bc game and play.  Otherwise, this could get real ugly.  But Erick has been practicing some this week and is expected to play.

^ This is not your typical unc team.  They really only go 3 deep on their bench.  Bullock and Hairston are 2 very tall guards that can also move to the ’3′.  McAdoo is really unc’s only backup post player that plays any significant minutes off the bench.  unc will go small at times and play 3 guards (though with their height it isn’t an issue), and a mix of Barnes, Henson, Zeller, and McAdoo at the post spots.

THE SERIES:

• All Time: unc 61-13
• At VT: unc 18-6
• In ACC Play: unc 8-3
• At VT in ACC Play: unc 3-2 (but VT has won 2 of the last 3!)
• Last Year: (1/13/11 at unc) unc 64, VT 61 – VT blows a 16-point 1st half lead

HO-KEYS TO WINNING (yeah, I said it, winning!):

• Street Fight: unc does not like physical games.  They are finesse at its best.  Tech must have a lotta bit of Jeff Allen in them Thursday.  Maybe save a ball and aim a bit high?  Maybe watch footage of Christian Laettner walking up court?  Nah, I can’t endorse dirty play.  But let’s make sure they have an imprint of all our tattoos on them by the end of the game.
• Pretend they are #1: Hey, unc could easily be #1 in the land.  And they may be by the end of the year.  Heck, they started #1.  The Hokies love that underdog role, especially against #1.  Well, being the favored team didn’t work (VT was favored in all 3 ACC losses).  So let’s see if Seth can once again tap into his inner-underdog and inspire the boys.
• Transition: The heels love to run and have a lot of great athletes that can finish on the break.  Tech must get back and force them to play in the half court.  Yes, they are really talented in the half court, too, but we’ll take our chances there.  unc isn’t a great, or even good, 3-point shooting team so if the Hokies can avoid giving up layups, it gives VT a chance.  Meanwhile, the Hokies must share the ball on the break and find some easy buckets.  The heels don’t enjoy having to work on defense, so they can be exploited.
• Get the Whistles: unc has a LOT of size.  Yep, and another 7-footer (seems like every team but VT has one).  We need this game called close, especially over-the-backs (like the ones the officials missed in the fsu game on Eddie).  Plus, this unc team doesn’t have much depth.  Strange to say VT can go as deep as the heels.  My fear is Tech won’t be aggressive, or when they are, the ball will get swatted away with no fouls.
• Monsters of the Glass: unc is #1 in the ACC at Offensive Rebounding %, collecting 40% of their misses.  The Hokies must block out and limit second chance opportunities… part of that will be getting the whistles.  Let’s hope Raines can stay out of foul trouble.
• Shoot for a Higher 3-Pt %!  Hey, 19 times in a row is more than a trend.  The team that shot for a higher 3-point percentage has won Tech’s last 19 ACC games.  The good news is, while VT is hitting just 25% from deep in ACC play, unc is dead last in the league at 20%.  Plus, with unc’s size, the Hokies need to stretch the unc D.
• Bonus: Support: This game may not be a sellout (wow).  But I still expect the Hokie fans there, which may only be 67% of the crowd there (at best), will be fired up.  And the students will be back.  Early support could help the Hokies, who have crapped the bed to start the previous 3 games.

BORING FACTS ABOUT unc:

• Founded in 1789
• Undergrads: 18k
• Postgrads: 8k
• Stayed open during the Civil War
• The Hokies own Franklin Street during football season!
• Mascot is a live ram named “Rameses”
• 37 NCAA Championships in six different team sports (20 are women’s soccer… yawn)
• 5 Men’s bball titles: 1957, 1982, 1993, 2005, 2009
• 42 NCAA Tourney appearances
• 18 Final Fours
• 17 ACC Tournament titles
• unc has not won an ACC football title (or division, or even tied for a title) since 1980.  Neither NC public school has won a title or tied for one since then.  Tobacco Road may know basketball, but the supposed home of great BBQ sure stinks at pigskin

Famous students:

• Bball: Michael Jordan, Vince Carter, Awtawn Jamison, Rasheed Wallace, Jerry Stackhouse, James Worthy, Larry Brown, Tyler Hansbrough, Ronald Curry
• Other Sports: Lawrence Taylor (guessing he didn’t graduate), Dre Bly, Ronald Curry again (did you know he was the #1 football and bball recruit back in the late ’90s at Hampton HS?  Check out his stats/their margins of victory some time – insane), Moonlight Graham, Mia Hamm, Julius Peppers, Marion Jones, B.J. Surhoff
• Jim Halpert (character on the Office) supposedly went there – not the real one, the real person went to brown
• Others: John Edwards, James K. Polk (11th President of the USA), Stuart Scott, Chris Matthews, Andy Griffith, Lewis Black, and Thomas Wolfe

Popularity: 18% [?]

Spread: VT by 9-1/2 (here we do again!)

This is a case where I wish we could throw out the records as the 0-2 Hokies travel to Chestnut Hill to take on the 1-1 eagles Saturday at 3 PM.  Playing at bc has been a nightmare for the Hokies ever since they joined the Big East.  Tech is 1-9 all time at boston college, all occurring since 2001 when VT entered the Big East.

But, this is a new era of bc basketball.  I’ll say it loud and clear — VIRGINIA TECH WILL WIN THIS GAME.  I think it will be a blowout, but I’m not giving any points.  I am guaranteeing the win though.  Period.  And if Tech doesn’t win this game, I’ll wear a uva hat and shirt to the VT @ uva game on January 22nd.  (Not sure where I’ll get said items from, but I’m not too worried about having to pay up)

FYI: Here’s who is carrying the game Saturday:

• FOX Sports Carolinas (FS Carolinas) – covers the states of North Carolina and South Carolina
• FOX Sports South (FS South) – covers six states in the southeastern portion of the country: Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi and Kentucky
• SUN Sports (SUN) or FOX Sports Florida (FS Florida) – both cover the state of Florida
• Comcast SportsNet Mid-Atlantic (CSN Mid-Atlantic) – covers the states of Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia, and parts of Delaware, Pennsylvania and West Virginia
• New England Sports Network (NESN) – covers the New England states of Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine

THE opponent:

Note: I wrote this before I watched bc beat clemson 59-57 on Thursday night.  My learnings are in italics…

Why am I so confident even after those two turds the Hokies dumped in the last week?  Simple — boston college is the worst ACC team of all time.  That’s saying something because we must remember wake forest went 1-15 in the league last year (well, I guess the worst bc could do now is 1-15 now since they beat clemson).  wake’s Scoring Margin was -18.5, which includes their win over uva.  They lost 8 ACC games by 20+ points.  But I’m calling it now — the eagles are worse.  Here’s why:

• 10.7%: bc returned just 263 of their 2,440 points from a year ago.  And you thought we got hit hard!
• Of the 263 points returning, two of those guys were walk-ons, and another (Danny Rubin) has played just 4 total minutes in the last 7 games.
• bc starts 5 freshmen, and believe me, this ain’t the Fab 5.  This is El Cinco Stinko.  Four of them are 3-star recruits, which isn’t bad but also not great, and the other, Heckmann, is from Germany… and he ain’t Dirk Nowitzki.  They have 9 freshmen out of the 15 guys on their roster.  Their 3 seniors are all walk-ons and their only junior is a transfer. Much like wake forest a year ago, this experience will help them, but it’s gonna be a blood bath this year.  Lonnie Jackson looks like a decent player but he looks like the star of a JV squad.  Their transfer, Humphrey from oregon, looks decent, too.
• They have no one ranked in the top 25 in the ACC in scoring.
• bc has almost no inside presence — they are last in the ACC in Offensive Rebounding Percentage by far (24% when the next closest is 28%).  That ranks 338th (out of 344) in the NCAA.  They also are near the bottom in blocks, steals (they are 332nd in the nation in steals per game), and defensive rebounding %.  boston college had ONE offensive rebound against clemson.  1!  That’s pathetic.  But they shot 50% which compensated for that and 7-foot freshman Dennis Clifford had 15 points and 7 rebounds.  Considering Tech’s ‘success’ against other crappy bigs (minnesota, wake, fsu), that’s not a good sign.  bc loves to pick and roll with Clifford.  FYI: Clifford has more zits on his face than bc has returning points.
• They average less than 4,400 fans per game, so it will not be a hostile atmosphere.  I’d guess there were 2,000 there on Thursday.
• The eagles were 30 point underdogs at unc (though they did cover!… losing by 23).  They’ve lost to harvard at home by 20, 3-14 rhode island, to new mexico by 18, and to holy cross by 22.  They were 9 points dogs at home against clemson.  So they are now 2-0 vs the spread while VT is 0-2 (VT was favored in both games so far).
• Their RPI is 254 out of 344 teams.  Well, that will go up a tad, but keep in mind clemson was around 160, so they basically beat the next worst team in the ACC.
• I typed up this article with them at 0-2 before they even played their game against clemson.   Ugh, clearly my prediction skills wore off with the new year.

The eagles, like most teams with no inside talent, will chuck it from deep.  They make 7.5 3-pointers per game, the 3rd highest average in the ACC, but make less than 34% of them.  Their 334 3-point attempts is by far the most in the league.  Humphrey, a transfer from oregon, cranks out 6 per game, but makes less than 30%.  Their best shooter from deep is Jackson (not Reggie, he’s gone).  Lonnie Jackson has hit 28 of his 62 3-point attempts, a very solid 45% clip.

The only way the eagles have any chance in this game is to be hot from deep (bc was 8/18 from deep against clemson, accounting for 40% of their points), they play a 2-3 zone and Tech looks as inept as they did against wake’s (not getting the ball to the high post and not attacking the offensive glass), and pigs fly.  I’d have said “no way” a week ago, but after how wake and fsu shot against VT from deep, and how bad VT has looked against a 2-3 zone, I guess there is a chance bc can win.  But I’m not worried about locating uva gear just yet.

Yes, bc beat clemson, but keep in mind clemson is awful, too.  Yes, clemson just beat fsu by 20 at home.  I have NO IDEA how that happened.  clemson lost to 3 teams from their own state out of conference – so like I said, they stink.  Seriously, this is bizarro ACC.  I think everyone is just so bad, everyone is competitive.  How crazy is this ACC season?  8 of the 12 teams sit at 1-1.

THE SERIES:

• Overall: bc 13-7
• At bc All Time: bc 9-1 (one win was in OT in 2008)
• In ACC Play: bc 7-5 (3 in a row)
• At bc in ACC games: bc 5-1 (3 in a row)

Last Year:

• 03.02.11 @VT on Senior Night: bc 76, VT 61 - probably what knocked VT out of the NCAAs
• 02.05.11 @bc: bc 58, VT 56 - Delaney missed a key FT and Green missed a 3-pointer for the win

The two teams will play again @VT later this year (chalk up another Hokie win).

STARTERS:

STATS: (bc’s stats are from before their game with clemson on Thursday night)

BORING FACTS ABOUT boston college (“Strength, skill, character”):

Popularity: 12% [?]

Spread: Hokies by 4.

The Hokies play their ACC home opener on Tuesday in a critical match-up between two desperate teams.  The loser will fall to 0-2 in league play and face a tough hole to climb out of to get back in the ACC race for a First Round bye.  The winner will gain a measure of confidence.

The Hokies swept the noles last year, but were just 2-6 before that against free shoes u.  Tech dominated florida state in early January in Blacksburg, then beat them in the ACC Tournament Quarterfinal on the infamous good/no-good shot by Derwin Kitchen.

The noles have finished in the ACC top four three years in a row (3rd place the last two years).  But Kitchen is gone, and more importantly so is Chris Singleton – he finished Third Team All ACC last year and was the runner up for Defensive Player of the Year despite missing the last month of the regular season.  Singleton is now slummin’ for the winless Wizards.

While the Hokies stink in ACC openers, falling to 1-7 with the loss at wake, Tech has been money in ACC Game #2.  The previous 4 years Tech started 0-1, but rebounded to win Game #2 to get back to .500.  And the Hokies have won 4 of their past 5 ACC openers (they lost last year to uva).

THE SERIES:

• Overall: fsu 25-19
• At VT All Time: VT 12-7
• In ACC Play: fsu 6-4
• At VT in ACC Games: VT 3-1

Last Year:

• ACC Tourney Quarterfinals: Recap – VT 52, fsu 51  |  Highlights
• Jan. 08, 11: Recap – VT 71, fsu 59

STARTERS:

STATS:

THE MATCH-UP:

As usual, the noles are built around defense.  They bring a tremendous length into Blacksburg (that didn’t come out right).  What I mean is they are exceptionally tall as usual. That presents challenges trying to shoot over them.  The result, as usual, is florida state leads the ACC in FG% Defense.  They also lead in blocked shots and steals.

The other problem the noles’ length presents is rebounding.  Tech just played the 2nd-worst rebounding team in the league and got thoroughly beaten on the glass (largely because they did not attack the 2-3 zone on offense and tried to go small against wake on defense).  I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Hokies play two of their big men (Davila, Raines, Barksdale) at the same time to combat the size of the noles.  Tech must do a better job on the glass then they did in Winston-Salem.

So, if the noles are so good defensively as usual, why aren’t they winning more?  Heck, they are 0-2 against the Ivy League with losses to a good harvard team (fsu didn’t score for the first 11 minutes of the game) and they lost to princeton.  And they just lost by 20 at a very bad clemson team on Saturday in their ACC opener.  Here’s why I think they are down…

They aren’t as athletic as they usually are, meaning the Hokies can push the ball on them… yeah, maybe.  VT really struggled to get transition points Saturday except for the back-to-back dunks to tie the game at 50 late.  But with how good fsu is defensively, the Hokies must find ways to get easy baskets.

On offense, Ian Miller has been their best scorer since being cleared to play at the end of the first semester.  I assume that means he didn’t have the grades to play in the fall semester.  The sophomore guard has averaged 13.8 ppg in the 4 games he’s played.  But Ian is shooting under 40% from the field and just 25% on 3s, so his scoring is unproductive scoring.

In fact, the noles are just plain awful from deep.  They are just 30% from deep on the year despite the fact they have two guys, Loucks and Dulkys, who are supposed to be 3-point shooting specialists.  The two are both shooting around 33% from deep.  Michael Snaer, a junior guard, has been their best shooter.  He’s shooting 35% from long range with 25 makes.  He is the most athletic guard and can drive, too.  Snaer and Miller will both challenge Tech’s perimeter guards off the dribble.

The big problem for the noles has been turnovers.  They have a -1.7 turnover margin, in the bottom third of the ACC.  They had 4 more turnovers than the tigers Saturday.  Considering the fact fsu leads the ACC in steals (which count as turnovers for the other team), that tells you fsu is giving up a LOT of possessions.  Can the Hokies turn those turnovers into points, specifically easy transition points?  That will be a big key…

HO-KEYS TO THE GAME:

• Rebounding: Edge (on paper) florida state.  The Hokies need to hustle more than they did Saturday for 50/50 balls.
• 3-Pt Shooting: Edge Hokies.  Tech is 10-1 when they shoot for a higher percentage from deep than their opponent.  They didn’t Saturday (wake 44%, VT 27%), and now the Hokies are 1-3 when the opponent shoots better.  Considering VT is 4th in the league in 3-Pt% and fsu is last, let’s hope that’s a good omen.
• Turnovers: Slight Edge VT.  wake had 16 turnovers to just 10 by VT Saturday and yet the Hokies still lost.  But against the noles with their size advantage, Tech must win this stat to have a chance.  They need more quality possessions than the noles, and need fsu turnovers to fuel the transition game.

BORING FACTS ABOUT florida state (“Strength, skill, character”):

Popularity: 12% [?]