UPDATE: For the third year in a row the Hokies will face the c-a-n-e-s canes in their first ACC Tournament game. The u, playing without their leading scorer Dwayne Collins, absolutely took the deacs behind the woodshed to advance to the quarterfinals (props to Balla for picking the u). The Hokies and canes split their two games this year (more on that below), but Tech beat miami two years ago in the quarters and last year in the first round. In the early game, uva stunned bc even without Landesberg. What an odd start to the tourney.

THE SETUP:

Alright, ladies, play time is over. The clock has tolled and it is officially March Madness. The Hokies head to Greensberg-o to participate in the granddaddy of them all, the ACC Tournament. This will be the first ‘true’ tournament Tech has played in all season, but the Hokies have some great tournament mojo working. VT has won their first game in 10 consecutive tournaments, and the current junior class is 8-0 in tournament openers.

The Hokies, thanks to their victory over georgia tech last weekend, get to enjoy an extra day of rest as the #4 seed with a First Round bye. The Hokies will have to wait and see who their opponent is as the #5 seed wake forest battles the #12 seed miami hurricanes at approximately 2:20 PM on Thursday. The extra rest is huge for Tech, who have two starters (Jeff Allen – shoulder and Zo Hudson – foot) battling injuries, along with reserve Cadarian Raines. Both Allen and Hudson should be good to go for Friday but we will see how well they hold up, especially Hudson who has been battling the foot injury for a while and missed the georgia tech game to rest it. While these injuries may not be a factor on Friday, they certainly could come into play as the tournament goes on if VT survives. The Hokie starters play a lot of minutes and playing on consecutive days can take its toll. Again, that’s why the bye was so big. We’ll see if Head Coach Seth Greenberg uses a guy like Manny Atkins, who played more minutes against georgia tech than he had in all other ACC games combined, to rest Zo. Allen’s foul trouble usually insures him plenty of rest, and senior Lewis Witcher has played well off the bench of late.

Having a bye has other advantages, too. While you don’t know specifically who your opponent will be, you have a general idea. Especially in a 5/12 game where you figure wake will win (though the 12 seed beat the #5 last year). So while Greenberg spent part of this week focusing on just improving as a team, you know they’ve also prepared for both wake and miami to a degree. Both wake and miami, on the other hand, had had to focus on each other. Tech will also be rested on Friday. That can equal rust early on and give their opponent an early shooting advantage, but VT should have better legs as the game goes on once they get in the flow. Plus, you had the bye because you were better to begin with, which is always a nice advantage.

The Hokies haven’t had much luck in Greensberg-o before, Tech is just 3-7 in the Greensboro Coliseum, including 1-7 against ACC teams. Tech did win their last game there three years ago, but that was against unc-g’boro. VT lost at the Coliseum to uva in the 2006 ACC Tournament. I was there to watch VT play a great game but fall late to the #3 unc tar heels back in 1995, when the heels had Rasheed Wallace and Jerry Stackhouse. But this is a different Hokie team and they are all about breaking trends, so let’s see how they do in the Gate City this time around (I have no idea why it is called the Gate City).

Note: Dwayne Collins, miami’s leading scorer, is out for the entire ACC Tournament with an injury.

SIX PACK OF KEYS TO WINNING:

• Come out fast: Tech’s opponent will have played the day before and will have a game feel early. Tech needs to match that intensity. It will help that this game is the second game of the day. As Greenberg pointed out the other night, the noon game stinks. There is no intensity (or people) in the arena for the noon game. That picks up as the game gets late, but you can be done by that point if you fall asleep, too. The Hokies need to have a good start. If they are around even (or ahead) at the first and second media timeouts, that is a good sign.
• Ride the Inner Tube (#0): Jeff Allen, aka the Big Donut, has been riding the gravy train with biscuit wheels lately. He’s averaged 20 points and 11.3 rebounds in his last three games and has avoided foul trouble. Jeff has hit double-digits in points 9 of his last 11 games. He owned miami this year, averaging 16.5 points and 7 rebounds in the two games, but Allen had just 8 and 5 against wake, largely due to foul trouble. If the Hokies do face wake, Allen is vital to be in there to defend the wake bigs inside like Aminu, McFarland, and Woods.
• Call the M.D.: Malcolm Delaney, fresh off being named ACC Player of the Week and All-ACC First Team, has been red hot of late. He’s scored 19 or more points in six straight games (two of those he went over 30). He’s also 22/44 from the field and 8/17 on three-pointers in his last three games. If he can get hot like he was two years ago in the ACC Tourney, he could put on an absolute show and carry the Hokies to great heights, like Randolph Childress did about 15 years ago for the deacons in the ACC Tourney in Greensboro. Two years ago Malcolm went for 30 points on 10/15 shooting, including an amazing 6/8 on three-pointers in two games in the ACC Tourney. Let’s hope he can re-channel that magic.
• Shoot the Boot: Let’s hope All-ACC Third Team member, Dorenzo Hudson, can ditch his walking boot and be strong for the tourney. We know he’s tough, having played through the foot injury for a while. He’s reached double-digits in points in 18 of his last 20 games, including averaging 18.1 ppg over his last seven. Tech must have him to survive in this tournament, even if it is with some slightly reduced minutes. Tech got 37 minutes out of Zo against nc state last week and will need to him to battle as much as he can in this one.
• Don’t rest on your laurels: Everyone thinks the Hokies are in the Big Dance. They probably are. It would be easy to come out and play a ‘ho hum’ game because there’s nothing to prove. But THIS tournament is a big deal. Winning it would be simply awesome. It would mean more to me than anything the football team has accomplished since joining the ACC (I mean that). It would mean more to me than making the NCAA Tournament (heck, we could skip it and I wouldn’t care). uva has just one ACC Tournament title in over 50 years (and hasn’t even made it to the semifinals in 15 years). clemson has never won it. Heck, only duke, unc, and nc state have more than four. So this is a BIG deal. Play like this is do or die and give it everything you have. And a win in the quarters would surely lock up a NCAA bid as a nice safety clause.
• Stop [X]: For miami it is… well, to be honest, they don’t have anyone that scares me. You just have to hope they aren’t hot as a whole team like they were in miami or on Thursday against wake.

THE opponent:

• miami: Recap – at VT 81, miami 66 | Recap – at miami 82, VT 75

c-a-n-e-s canes: Wow, what a tale of two games it was versus miami. In the meeting in Blacksburg, VT jumped out to a 48-13 lead in the first half and led by 27 at the break. The Hokies hit 7 of 9 threes in the first half, topped only by their 8 against georgia tech last week. miami made a bit of a run in the second half but they simply had to far to go.

In miami, it was the exact opposite. miami hit 5/8 on threes in the first half and 14/20 total shots (70%)! The canes led by 17 at the half, a 44 -point turnaround. Hudson, Delaney, and Allen scored all 30 of the Hokie first half points. In the second half, JT Thompson led the Hokies back with 14 points, and VT cut the lead to 5 on eight occasions but could never get over that hump and lost by an 82-75 score.

miami’s top three scorers (without Collins) are all guards. They have three guys (Dews, Grant, and Thomas) with 50 or more made 3-pointers, so defending the perimeter is a must. And without Collins, the canes have no true scorer inside. But Reggie Johnson had a career high 22 in the first round and played well against VT in the second meeting. But with his weight (290) he has to be worn down playing on consecutive days.

The canes had lost 5 of 6 and 11 of 14, I didn’t expect to see them Friday (especially with Collins hurt) but stranger things have happened (like a 2-14 georgia tech team beating a ranked clemson team last year). Tech must take away the three-pointer from the canes and exploit their porous defense by getting out in transition, or making the extra pass on defense as lazy defenders get lost. miami will likely to slow this game down and play in the half court. The Hokies usually do well in games like that with their solid defense but VT must also fuel their transition game with steals an turnovers from the canes. And let’s hope miami is fat and happy won a game in the tourney.

STARTERS:

STATS:

* I excluded Collins from miami since he isn’t supposed to play.

HIGHLIGHTS:

@ VT 87, wake 83:
ESPN Highlights

Watch VT Plays of the Week | 02.21.10 in Sports | View More Free Videos Online at Veoh.com

@ miami 82, VT 75:

@ VT 81, miami 66:

Popularity: 23% [?]

THE SETUP

The stakes at hand for the Hokies on Saturday are real simple:

• Win and they’ve punched their ticket to the Big Dance
• Win and they’ve earned a First Round bye in the ACC Tournament

I truly believe the Hokies have a great shot at winning the ACC Tournament.  They played the two first place teams very tough – they had two opportunities to beat maryland last weekend in 2 OTs and led duke on the road with less than 10 minutes to play.  But the Hokies have to earn that first round bye to have a real shot.  It is too much to ask for the Hokies to win four games in four days.  VT will garner a first round bye with either a win this weekend against georgia tech, or if wake beats clemson on Sunday in Winston-Salem (Go deacs!).

More importantly to most Hokie fans though is that NCAA Tournament bid.  Pretty much all the talking heads that do bracketology have the Hokies in the tourney right now.  A loss to the jackets though would put in back in the Committee’s hands (depending on what VT does in the ACC Tournament).  Leaving it up to the NCAA Tournament Committee is something that has not faired well for Tech the last two years.  But with a win Tech gets to 10 ACC wins and 23 overall and there is no way they don’t get in with that resume.  The Committee would have to be certifiably insane to not let a team in with those marks.  That would be like a bouncer shutting out a 5′9″ blonde with D’s from a club.  But with a loss to the jackets and we drop down to a 5′6″ brunette with C’s but a couple extra pounds.  Good, but not a sure thing.

VT won’t have history on their side Saturday.  Home teams have dominated ACC games this year, winning around two-thirds of the games.  But road teams were 5-1 last weekend (gt was the only team to win at home).

Another thing working against the Hokies is they have lost their regular season finale four years in a row.  Three years ago it cost them an ACC regular season title, losing at home to clemson.  Two years ago it likely cost them a NCAA Tournament bid at clemson.  And last year it pull the nail in their NIT coffin at fsu.

THE SERIES

The Hokies have absolutely owned the lesser tech all-time.  VT is 9-3 against the jackets, including 5-2 in ACC play.  The Hokies are even 3-1 in Atlanta, including 2-1 since joining the league.  Tech has won two in a row in the series but both were in Blacksburg.  VT won 76-71 last year in the only meeting.

THE OPPONENT

The Good News: georgia tech is absolutely horrible on the road, going 1-7 in ACC play this year and 6-34 (think about that for a minute) over the last five ACC seasons.

The Bad News: This game is in Atlanta where the jackets are 14-1 this year, including 6-1 in ACC action with wins over duke, clemson, and wake.  The Hokies will really have their work cut out for them to win on the road on georgia tech’s Senior Day.

georgia tech, despite going 2-14 in conference last year, were a trendy pick to get a bye (top 4 seed) this year due to their recruiting class.  But as usual, freshmen haven’t been as good as people thought, georgia tech (thanks to Coach Paul Hewitt) has underachieved, and gt still can’t win a road game.  They sit in 7th place and can only move up to the 6th seed at best for the ACC Tourney.

Despite Virginia Tech’s past success against gt, this is the exact type of team the Hokies struggle with.  The jackets have good size (every starter is 6′5″ or taller), and have talent inside.  6′9″ Gani Lawal is an absolute beast.  At one point earlier in the year he was my pick to be the ACC Player of the Year.  But he’s fallen off a bit on the scoring end, averaging just 13.5 ppg (he is their leading scorer).  Gani has been held to single digits in five of the last nine games after scoring 10+ in 15 of the first 18 games.  But he also grabs nine rebounds per contest.  Gani also blocks 1-1/2 shots per game.

Despite being a shot blocker, he doesn’t foul much and rarely is in serious foul trouble (read: he doesn’t work that hard on defense, just likes blocking shots).  But he has a solid mid-range game and great low post moves.  Lawal can play facing the hoop or with his back to it, and has close to 100 offensive rebounds on the year.  gt should be feeding him the ball more than they do, he’s their best player right now.

With Lawal slipping slightly on the offensive end, 5-star freshman (and ACC Preseason Rookie of the Year) Derrick Favors has stepped up his game.  The 6′10″ top 5 recruit from a year ago has shot 50% or better in 12 of the last 14 games.  In gt’s last four games he’s averaging 16 ppg and just under 10 rebounds.  Yeah, he’s good and is really peaking right now.  The good news is Virginia Tech shouldn’t have to worry about facing him next season, or Lawal for that matter.  Favors should be yet another one-and-done jacket (Kenny Anderson, Stephon Marbury, Thaddeus Young, and Gilbert Arenas’s buddy Javaris Crittendon).

The jackets then start three guards.  Early in the year freshman Mfon Udofia was seeing a lot of action at the point but his time has all but evaporated.  Now Iman Shumpert is seeing most of the minutes as the floor general.  He is yet another stud point guard recruit of the jackets.  His numbers have actually gone down this year in almost every category, but that is the Favors factor.  Shumpert can score 30 like he did against unc or 24 like he did against bc, or he can get shutout like he did in consecutive games against wake forest and unc in the second meeting.  So you never know what you’ll see from him.  Iman doesn’t have a great assist-to-turnover ratio (1.3) and will still make dumb decisions.  georgia tech in general makes a lot of mistakes, averaging 16 turnovers per game (third most in the ACC).  That is great news for the Hokies who need turnovers to fuel their transition game.

The other two starting guards are mostly role players.  6′6″ D’Andre Bell is a Terrell Bell clone.  Tall and lanky but a good defender.  D’Andre is also very selective about the shots he takes.  He is hitting 45% of his threes, but has shot just 29.  At the other guard is freshman Glen Rice, Jr, yes, the son of Glen Rice.  While that Rice was a match-up nightmare – a tall guard that could shoot from anywhere inside half court, his son does his damage inside the arc.  Rice has shot just 45 threes, but he has hit 47% so he can be a threat if he gets hot.  He hit 4/5 threes against wake and hit 3/6 in their last game, a loss at clemson.  Bell and Rice average just 11.6 ppg combined.  They remind me a lot of how Hudson and T-Bell were before Zo realized what a great scorer he is.  Rice could get to Zo like numbers soon.

The jackets have three guys on their bench that average more than Bell or Rice.  And because they love to press, they depend on their bench a lot.  No one averages even 29 minutes for them.  Zachary Peacock is a dependable commodity off the bench.  The senior has averaged in the 9-10 point range the last three years and is a great mid-range shooter.  He is hitting 51% of his shots this year.  He also shoots over 40% on threes, though again averages less than two attempts per game.

Freshman Brian Oliver (yes, another descendant of a NBA player and in this case a former jacket) gives the jackets 7.7 ppg off the bench.  Almost all his damage is from behind the arc – he is also shooting over 40% on threes and has made 56 of them.  The funny thing is his dad was more of a low post player, so they are opposites in their game, just like the Rice’s.

Finally is the aforementioned Mfon Udofia.  The 6′2″ freshman was bombing treys early in the year but is in an Erick Green like slump of late – he’s hit just one three-pointer in their last 10 games.  He’ll only see about 10 minutes.  In his place, the forgotten stud recruit guard has seen more time – Maurice Miller.  Miller has played 17 or more minutes in the last five games and has averaged just under 7 ppg in that stretch.  Yes, they have a lot of depth at point guard, they just aren’t that good compared to their expectations and all turn the ball over a lot.

georgia tech plays an uber aggressive style.  They press full court and love to trap.  Unlike clemson’s press that is really about creating turnovers, the jacket press seems more interested in either stealing your wallet or seeing how many bruises that can inflict.  They will mug you.  If the refs are letting them play on Saturday, VT is in trouble.  The Hokies can get easy looks by making extra passes, and getting the ball over the press as they do so well.  Or take jacket live-ball turnovers and convert them into transition opportunities, something VT has done a better job with of late (i.e. not settling for 18-foot jumpers on 2-on-1 breaks).

On offense the jackets also will be aggressive.  gt shoots 46% from the field, 2nd best in the ACC, and 37% on threes, 3rd best in the conference.  They don’t mind getting shots up quick and then they will rain down on the offensive glass like a tsunami.  Again, let’s hope the refs are calling over the back and the Hokies must do a good job on the boards.  They must get in position to box out and have everyone helping.  Then look for an outlet and burn the jackets up the court.  But secure the ball first.

And the jackets weakness on offense if foul shooting.  They hit just 65% from the line.  This could be key in a close game late – foul early if behind.

SIX PACK OF KEYS TO WINNING:

• Hat Trick for Allen: Jeff has scored 43 points and grabbed 24 rebounds in 77 minutes in VT’s last two games.  The Hokies absolutely must keep him on the floor.  Two quick fouls in this one and the Hokies are in a world of hurt.  Tech needs him as much for his defense against Lawal or Favors as they do for his offense.
• Make the jackets Earn their Points: Even though georgia tech shoots a solid 37% from behind the arc, I’d rather force them to beat you from there.  Don’t let them pound it inside and get easy buckets in the paint, or crowd-riling dunks from Favors or Peacock or Lawal.
• Windex: And if you force georgia tech to beat you from three-point range, that means you have to get rebounds to get stops.  VT must box out the aggressive jackets, and then look to push the ball to use their aggressiveness against them.  gt grabs 39% of their misses – the Hokies need to hold them under that (around 33%) to win.
• 4-Star Turnover: The jackets have three 4-star point guards, one from each of the past three years.  But they average 6.5 turnovers per game combined to just 8.6 assists (read: throw the ball to Lawal and Favors!  Their PGs are selfish.).  The Hokies need to do what they’ve done all season – win the Points off Turnover battle by turning jacket mistakes into transition hopes.  Get easy buckets off gt before they can set their press up.
• Read Your Calendar: It is March and VT needs to start playing every game like it is a NCAA Tournament play-in game, because that’s just what this is.  Luckily, it might still be double elimination for the Hokies.  But it is time to crank things up to tournament intensity, and that means not starting 3/13 from the floor like they did the other night.
• Remember 2008 and 2009: The Hokies were left out of the dance in 2008 when they really felt they deserved to be in.  They didn’t make it last year because they just couldn’t close out big games late in the season (and had bad losses early).  Here’s your chance at redemption.  Here is your chance to say we are crashing the party and there is nothing you can do about it.  Tech’s worked so hard to be in this position, now let’s rip up that NIT invitation.  VT has a lot to play for (NCAA bubble and clinch a First Round bye) while gt has very little to play for (they will be the 6th or 7th seed no matter what).

STARTERS:

Note: Let’s hope Zo’s foot holds up.  He was in a boot most of Wednesday yet played 37 minutes against the pack.

STATS:

Hot Hokies:

• Malcolm Delaney has hit 15/29 shots in his last two games (52%).  He had been shooting 74/205 (36%) in ACC games before that.
• Jeff Allen has scored double digits in 8 of 10 games.  He had been held under 10 in 5 of the 6 games before that to start ACC play.
• Allen’s 24 rebounds in the last two games were more than in his previous five (20 boards).  Jeff’s 77 minutes were more than in his previous four games combined.
• Lewis Witcher has 4 points against nc state on Senior Night.  He had just 2 total points in ACC action before that.
• Zo Hudson is averaging 18.1 ppg in his last 7 games and has scored in double digits in every ACC game but one.

Not so Hot:

• VT has been outrebounded in 7 of their last 9 games.
• Erick Green is 5/40 (13%) in ACC play and has missed 12 shots in a row.
• Victor Davila has scored 6 or less in 11 straight games and hasn’t hit double digits since December 9th.
• The Hokies have lost 4 straight regular season finales.

Popularity: 23% [?]

Spread: Hokies by 8.5 

THE SETUP:

Has anyone checked to see if hell is frozen over?  I ask because the Hokies go into their home finale with the nc state wolfpack on a two game winning streak over their Raleigh rivals.  Before three weeks ago, Tech had only once strung together back-to-back wins over state since 1922 (and those ‘back-to-back’ wins were 21 years apart).  VT owned the early part of this series, winning the first seven games, but state went 34-3 against the Hokies between 1927 and 2008.  The Hokies seemingly undid that spell last season when they overcame an 18 point second half deficit and beat the pack in OT.  Then the Hokies followed that up with a 20 point waxing of state in Raleigh last month, Tech’s first win there since 1917.

Wednesday’s game means everything to Virginia Tech and very little to nc state.  With the pack’s consecutive wins over wake and miami, they clinched finishing .500 at worst at the end of the regular season and ACC Tournament (that was honestly a goal of theirs… used to be for Tech, too).

Meanwhile, the suddenly slumping Hokies are playing a must win game, in my opinion.  VT has lost three in a row and gone from being listed as an 8-10 seed in the Big Dance projections to being back on the bubble as an 11 or 12 seed, just barely in.  A win Wednesday will clinch a winning ACC record for Tech (used to be a recipe for a NCAA invitation though we saw two years ago that isn’t always true).  It will also put the Hokies, who currently sit in the #3 spot in the ACC standings, in firm position for a First Round bye at the ACC Tournament next week.

That said, we’ll see how the game flows.  state has nothing to lose and likely will be loose, while Tech could come out tight if they put too much pressure on themselves.  Hopefully the Hokies will just come out and bury the pack early like they did in Raleigh three weeks ago…

THE LAST MEETING:

This game was practically over before the ice had melted on your first Coke & Turkey.  The Hokies hit their first 10 shots from the field (yes, you read that right) and jumped out to a 26-7 lead when the game was just nine minutes old.  Tech finished the game hitting 53% from the field and shot 50% or better in both halves (again, you read that right).  To put that in perspective, the Hokies have shot over 50% in just two other games and both of those were non-conference games in 2009.  In contrast, Tech has shot under 40% 11 times this season including eight times in ACC games.

So what happened in Raleigh?  As I re-watched the game earlier this week it was simple – nc state is a really, really poor defensive teams (as almost all of Sidney Lowe’s teams have been) and Virginia Tech exposed their weak areas.  The pack have to be the most unathletic team in the league.  The Hokies beat the pack up the floor and scored in transition.  Or beat the slow-footed wolves off the dribble and either got to the rim and finished, or dished for an easy bucket.  Tech made 16 layups or dunks in this game out of their 27 made shots, including six of those first 10 shots they hit.  Pretty easy to shoot 53% from the field when a majority of your makes are within a few feet.  It was so easy that Tech attempted just seven three-pointers for the entire game, making three (two of those were in the first two minutes by Zo Hudson… so they made just one in the final 38 minutes).

Tech won in another key category for them – points off turnovers.  Despite just a +1 margin in turnovers gained, the Hokies outscored the wolfpack 23-13 in points off mistakes.  VT did a good job of getting out and running on turnovers for those easy buckets listed above.

The Hokies did a solid job of limiting state’s star, Tracy Smith. He had just four points at the half, and after exploding for six quick points to start the second half, Tech limited him to just two points in the final 18 minutes.

nc state went 0 for 11 from three-point range.  They hit just 29% of their shots for the game, marking the fifth time VT had held an opponent under 30% and third time in ACC play.  state also shot just 60% from the free throw line.  In other words, they played about as poorly as possible.

So what didn’t the Hokies do well?  They did an awful job on the defensive glass.  Suddenly this has become Tech’s greatest weakness.  While you might expect this against the fsu’s and wake forest’s, nc state has even less bulk and height inside than the Hokies.  The state statisticians credited the wolfpack with 27 offensive rebounds on 55 opportunities.  That is horrendous for Tech.  A bad night is letting your team grab 35% of their misses.  Nearly 50% is a Jean van de Velde on the 18th at the British Open like performance.  All-ACC Ugly Team member Dennis Horner had nine offensive rebounds all by himself.  Another problem was Tech’s butterfingers.  state got the benefit of five team rebounds on offense – plays were the Hokies lost the ball out of bounds on a state miss.  Tech had similar issues at bc last week.  The guys really need to put a lock on the balls as they come off the rim.

state showed some full court trapping press looks in the last meeting.  This stunned me with how unathletic the wolfpack are, but I don’t think VT really burned it that much.  Personally, I’d be just fine with them showing more of it Wednesday.  I’d use some zone if I were Sidney Lowe… then again, I’d be getting my resume ready if I were him.  He’s nc state’s ricky stokes.

THIS MATCH-UP:

state is playing better ball since that blow-out loss to Tech.  They led maryland by 10 at home two weeks ago before choking down the stretch, then beat wake easily a few days later.  After a week off, they won at miami this past week.  Greenberg mentioned on Tech Talk Live that they are screening more for their star, Tracy Smith (Boy, what a great idea!  Only took until game 25!  That’s like when Stinespring figured out he should throw screens to Kevin Jones at the end of the season… but I digress…).  They used to screen more for Horner, but now with the screens going for Smith is allows Horner to spot up from three.  And I don’t think Tech can expect state to go 0-for-deep again.  The Hokies must do a good job of fighting through screens to keep Smith from getting the ball in the low post where he is automatic.  And they can’t lose sight of Horner or Wood on the perimeter.

The pack have also been doing a good job of getting to the free throw line more than their opponents of late.  They aren’t a great free throw shooting team, but they are an even worse field goal shooting team (10th in the ACC) so getting to the line helps.  state is also a lousy three-point shooting team at 8th in the ACC (nice combo, eh?) but have quick shooting so many threes unless they are wide open.

On offense the Hokies need to use the same recipe they used last game – attack the tin.  Feed the rock to Mr. Jeff Allen as much as possible.  He had a monster game in the loss Saturday, tallying 25 points and 15 rebounds.  state has nobody that can guard him.  Allen had 14 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 blocks on 5/7 shooting in the Raleigh meeting.  And that was in just 26 minutes due to… come on, you know what I’m going to say… foul trouble.  If he can stay on the court, he could really go off in this game.

Another encouraging sign was the shooting of Malcolm Delaney and JT Thompson over the weekend.  Delaney hit 9 of 17, the first time he’s shot over 50% since the umbc game back in December.  The key was he was draining his pull up jumpers and finishing near the rack.  That had been the biggest thing missing.  He only hit one 3 in the game Saturday but making his two-pointers made all the difference, especially if refs keep putting an embargo on his free throw attempts.  Thompson also was knocking down his open jumpers.  After not being able to hit water if he fell out of a boat against bc last week, JT hit 5 of 8 from the field including the tying three at the end of regulation.

STARTERS:

Expect Lewwwwww to start on Senior Night!  Also, the Washington Post reported that Dorenzo Hudson has been seen in a walking boot due to a foot injury suffered earlier in the season and may have resurfaced Saturday (he left the floor for a while in the second half).  We’ll see what his status is for Wednesday: Post’s Hokies Journal

STATS:

Stats don’t lie – nc state is 10th in the ACC in Offensive and Defensive FG%

THE OPPONENT (re-posted from my first preview three weeks ago):

How can I sum up the wolfpack in one sentence?  Hmm.  How about this: they aren’t good at anything.  I mean it, nothing.  Check out the ACC stats and you’ll see.  They are not in the top four of any statistical category in the league, overall or in ACC games only, except for 3-pointers made per game (they are fourth in that category).  They are 10th or worse in FG% offense and defense, and are in the bottom half of the league in offensive and defensive rebounding.  They don’t get many steals or blocks, and have an average turnover margin.  They are only eighth in 3-point %.

nc state also has, hands down, the worst coach in the league.  I’m sorry Sidney Lowe, but you are, uh, not good.  You stink.  The pack are 17-40 in ACC games in his four seasons since they ran Herb Sendek out of town.  They have finished 10th, 12th, 10th, and are currently tied for 11th in the ACC.  If he is kept around for a fifth season it will be for one reason – they have an awesome recruiting class coming in next year.  While he may be a nc state legend from their 1983 National Championship, it is time to move on.

The good news for Hokie fans is three of the guys that owned the Hokies the most are gone.  No more Brandon Costner, Ben McCauley, or Courtney Fells.  Those guys were 5-1 against Tech and regularly had career days.  You know they had their calendar’s circled for any meeting between these two clubs.

The pack entered this season fairly inexperienced.  You’d think they were a young team since you don’t recognize many of the names, but in reality it is just because they aren’t very good and didn’t play much in past years, even though state stunk then, too.  Four of their top five scorers are juniors or seniors, but just one of those guys averaged more than 6.6 ppg last year (Tracy Smith).

Speaking of Tracy Smith, that kid is a player.  He’s the most talented packer by far.  Smith ranks sixth in the ACC in points per game and rebounding, at 17.6 and 8.3 respectively.  He’d be a strong candidate for First Team All-ACC if he played for a better team.  Smith is very talented in the low post and is deadly from six feet in.  Tech must keep him from setting up, and receiving the ball, on the low block.  He does not shoot from outside (he has never attempted a three in his career).  His midrange game is decent from 16-feet in, but you’d rather force him to beat you from out there than near the hoop.  Tech must also get a body on him and keep him off the offensive glass, Tracy is by far their best offensive rebounder.  Smith has been on a roll, too, averaging 19.1 ppg over his last seven games and hitting 53 of his last 88 shots, an amazing 60%.  Smith leads the league in FG%.

Javier Gonzalez runs the point for the pack.  He has also underwhelmed me talent-wise.  He has an average assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.2.  Javier is a good three-point shooter at 40% for the second year in a row, but he hasn’t made more than three in any game.  So he is selective about when he shoots.  Get out on him and force him to drive, and when he does drive, expect him to dish the ball.  In other words, the support defense needs to collapse and look to pick up open man in the post when help comes.  Gonzalez averages 10.2 ppg but he can disappear completely some nights.  He’s just 5′11″ so taller defenders can be an issue for him on the perimeter.  The key is stopping his drive.

Dennis Horner would be on my All-ACC Ugly Team.  The senior plays forward at 6′9″ but his game is not in the low post.  He needs a few steaks on him.  I’ve always thought of him as a three-point shooter but he’s never averaged even one made three per game in his career.  That said, he’s not a back to the basket guy and will shoot threes from the corner when open.  Horner has double his ppg from last year, up to 12 per game this season.

If you are the Hokies, you’ll take you odds on leaving guys like Horner open.  The key is stopping Gonzalez’s drive and the feeds to Smith.  Double down on Smith and force someone else to beat you.

That someone else could be freshman Scott Wood.  Wood is averaging just 8.3 ppg but exploded for 31 against fsu in one of the pack’s two ACC wins.  He hit 7/11 threes that game, and 10/15 from the floor overall.  He has made four or more 3s four times this season, so he is their most dangerous shooter behind the arc.  Like with Horner, Wood is way too scrawny to battle in the low post.  He is 6′7″ but just 170 pounds.  Heck, new VT QB Ricardo Young is considered skinny at 170 but he’s just 6′1″.  You could use Wood to jimmy a door, he’s so thin.  Almost two-thirds of his shots are threes.  He is a guy you want to watch on the perimeter.

Senior Farnold Degand had been starting at the off-guard spot for state, but missed the last game with a thigh bruise.  He did not practice Monday and is listed as day-to-day, so he may not play.

state has a 7-footer in freshman Jordan Vandenberg, but he averages just 8 mpg and 1 point.  He is from Australia and probably would not be playing for any other team in the league yet in his career.  But state really lacks any size inside and needs help from him and C.J. Williams, an undersized forward at 6′6″ and 220.  Freshman Richard Howell does give them some bulk at 6′8″ and 265.  He grabs 5 rebounds in about 15 minutes per game.  But inside is not their strength other than Smith.

The pack used just three guys off their bench last game without Degand, so they lack depth.

So, in summary, it is hard to see how this team can win ACC games.  That said, if Tech keeps shooting under 40% in games, anyone can stay with him.  And the RBC Center is a tough place to play (for the big games like unc and duke… we’ll see what the crowd is like for this game with them at 2-7).  The Hokies are due for a breakout game, let’s hope this is it.

nc state BY THE NUMBERS:

• Founded: 1887
• Enrollment: 23.7 undergrad, 7.4 postgrad
• National Titles (Basketball): 1974 and 1983
• ACC Titles (Basketball): 10 – last was in 1987 – 3rd most in the ACC
• ACC Football Titles: 7 (tied for 4th most) – none since 1979 – in fact, the two state schools (unc and nc state) haven’t won an ACC football title, or even tied for one, since 1980.  There’s no pigskins on Tobacco Road.

Popularity: 49% [?]

THE SETUP:

It’s a White Out, people!  And for once I’m not talking about the snow.  All Hokie fans are encouraged to wear white on Saturday as the Hokies play host to the second place maryland terrapins at Cassell Coliseum.  Tech has lost consecutive games for the first time all season but have to have confidence playing at home where they are 14-0 on the season.  They have started 15-0 at home just once before, with that coming back in 1982-83.

The Hokies need this game.  They don’t desperately need it, they just need it.  Two more wins in the final three regular season games and VT is in the NCAA Tournament, and likely secure Tech a First Round bye in the ACC Tournament.  A win over maryland would look great on Tech’s resume (as would a win at georgia tech).  And with Senior Night looming next Wednesday against last place nc state, a win would all but assure VT of getting those 10 ACC wins.

THE OPPONENT:

ACC Super Punk Greasy Face-quez (a.k.a. Greivis Vasquez) leads a veteran terp team into the Cassell (yes, that’s him getting arm-curled by yours truly).  The terps biggest weakness is their lack of bigs in the low post, so they are a good matchup for the Hokies who also are thin inside.  The terps start three guards and play Landon Milbourne at the 4-spot.  Much like when Tech used to play Deron Washington at the power forward spot, Milbourne is undersized at 6′7″ and just 205 pounds.  But like Deron, he is very athletic (not Deron-athletic but still very good) and uses his hops to grab rebounds and block shots.

maryland’s only true big man that starts is a freshman, 6′10″ and 260 pound Jordan Williams.  Despite his youth, he has been the real key to the terrapins.  Had he not been ACC ready and played well this year, who knows where maryland would be because they simply don’t have any other real quality post players.  Williams is averaging 9 ppg, but more importantly, 8 rebounds.  Dino Gregory is a decent shot-blocker off the bench, but has very limited offensive abilities and isn’t a great rebounder.

While this team doesn’t have many quality big’uns, they do have good size all around.  They only play one guy that is under 6′4″.  That is 6′2″ reserve Adrian Bowie.  Luckily VT has big guards, too, so the terps can’t just shoot over Tech.

The strength of this terrapin team though is their backcourt.  I’d rank their perimeter players as the second best unit in the ACC behind duke, even ahead of Virginia Tech’s.

The leader of this unit is mercurial senior Vasquez who recently passed the 2,000 point mark for his career.  Vasquez was picked as an ACC Preseason First Teamer (and would make my all-ugly team).  He is second in the ACC in scoring at 18.7 ppg, #1 in assists at 6.4 per game, seventh in 3s made, and 10th in steals.  Pretty amazing for a guy that was getting booed at home midway through last season and insulted his own fans, saying fans at schools like “duke, unc, and Virginia Tech” didn’t do things like that.  Well, he’ll get to see those fans up-close and personal on Saturday.

Vasquez has a hair-trigger and still has not found a shot he didn’t like.  He hits 38% of his threes and can get his shot off extremely quickly.  If you go out on him tight, Greivis can beat you off the dribble and has a great mid-range shot, can hit runners, can finish layups, or is a great passer and can dish to the athletic Milbourne or the bruising Williams.  Or he can kick it out for a three to…

At shooting guard the twerps feature another senior, Woodbridge, VA’s Eric Hayes.  Hayes, like Vasquez, has been a four year contributor so this isn’t his first rodeo.  They know how to play and how to play together.  Hayes is a three-point specialist and when he drives he is usually looking to dish.  More than half his made field goals are threes and he doesn’t get to the line much.  But Hayes is deadly on threes, hitting 46% of them (#1 in the league).  He had been in a minor slump but has hit 6 of 9 from deep in the last two games, but both of those were at home.  Eric is just 6 of 21 (29%) from behind the arc in ACC road games, so let’s hope he doesn’t find the Cassell shooting backgrounds to his liking.

The final starter is 6′4″ Sean Mosley.  Mosley is the terps best defender at guard.  Hayes is weak defensively and Vasquez is a gambler.  Mosley isn’t the scorer the other two are but he erupted for 20 against clemson on Wednesday, by far his highest output in ACC play.  Mosley doesn’t shoot many threes but does hit 43% of them (just 12 makes).  He gets to the line more than Hayes since he is a slasher.  Mosley also has 53 offensive rebounds on the season, a great number for a guard.  Considering VT’s troubles with rebounding lately, this could be a key.

maryland has a very deep bench, one of the deepest in the ACC.  Since they aren’t big, they find ways to rattle you.  They play a full court press a lot.  Not to aggressively trap like clemson does, but more to make you rush and take bad shots, they turn that into offense on their end.  Because they press, they use their stable of bodies.  The terps have nine guys that average 10 minutes or more per game.  That allows them to press and still keep guys fresh.  Vasquez is the only terp that averages more than 30 minutes per game and he’s at just 33.  In contrast, Delaney and Hudson average over 36 minutes.

The terps also have a lot of offensive weapons.  They lead the ACC in Scoring Offense in ACC games at 76.2 ppg, 3 points ahead of duke.  They are still fifth in Scoring Defense at 68.2 ppg.  They are #1 in FG% Offense and Defense in conference games.  That’s how they are 10-3, with that combination.  They can also kill you from distance – hitting 43% of their ACC three-pointers.  Next closest is georgia tech at 38%.  maryland has four players averaging in double digits (Vasquez, Milbourne, Hayes, and Mosley) and Williams averages 9 ppg.  They don’t get a ton of points off their bench, just around 15 per game, but those are talented.  Cliff Tucker hit the three at the buzzer that beat georgia tech last weekend.

I also mentioned they are veterans.  They start three seniors (Milbourne, Hayes, and Vasquez) and have three juniors that supply a lot off their bench.  So they won’t be rattled by much of anything.  They’ll be ready to play and know what they are doing.  duke and maryland are two of the most experienced ACC teams, and by no surprise, they sit #1 and 2 in the conference.

SIX PACK OF KEYS TO WINNING:

• Make Vasquez One-Dimensional: maryland is at their best when Greivis is getting everyone else involved by either feeding them easy buckets on the break, or breaking down teams and dishing to open teammates near the hoop.  Greivis averages over 7 assists per game in their 20 wins, but under 5 in their 7 losses.  The only two times he’s been held under 5 assists in an ACC game were both in losing efforts.
• Get a Dang Rebound! Over Tech’s last six games they have grabbed just 57% of their opponents’ misses.  That would rank dead last in all of the 347 Division I NCAA teams if that was Tech’s average for the whole season.  Tech has fallen from #1 in the ACC in Defensive Rebounding Percentage to ninth over these six games.  Part of the problem is Jeff Allen’s drop in production.  He averages just 5.2 rebounds per ACC game, only tied for second on the team with JT Thompson and behind Terrell Bell.
• Save Jeff: I mentioned in my notes the other day that in Tech’s last four games, Allen hadn’t made it more than 8 minutes and 4 seconds into the game before committing his second foul.  As a result, he’s had a lot of pine time waiting for the second half.  Earlier in the year Greenberg had Jeff coming off the bench to protect him early.  At a minimum, Jeff should go out when he get his first foul.  And he needs to be smarter, knowing he has a target on his back with officials.  While refs won’t give Malcolm the foul calls on offense they used to, they sure as heck will ring up Jeff for illegal screens or reaching calls.  Be aggressive, since he’s steals lead to VT fast breaks, but pick and choose your spots to be aggressive.  And don’t give up fouls 60 feet from the hoop.
• The Subs: The Hokies will have to get some production from their bench.  Since maryland will press, the Hokies will get tired and need to dip into their subs.  maryland is a great three-point shooting team and if you are tired, you tend to not fight through screens as hard or get up the court as quickly.  Next thing you know they are raining down threes on you.  Tech will need to sub in fresh bodies and those guys must give maximum effort on defense to avoid letting maryland have the open looks duke and bc had the last two games.
• The Snub: Malcolm Delaney has a chip on his shoulder because his home state terrapins didn’t aggressively recruit him.  I have a feeling he loves sticking it to the terps.  While his shot has been inaccurate lately, I’d look for big things from him Saturday.  The key is he has to start hitting his mid-range shots.  He cannot seem to hit open 15-footers, or runners in the lane of late.  I wonder if his ankle injury is bothering him on shots, much like he said it has affected his lift on his three-point shots.  But all that needs to get blocked out Saturday and Malcolm needs to play like an All-ACC player.
• Tempo: Tech can’t get sucked into maryland’s up-tempo style too much.  VT will tire out.  But the dilemma is the Hokies struggle to score in the half court.  The Hokies must balance when they push, and when they control things and not let maryland just get out and run all night.  And the Hokies must hit their open jumpers, something they could not do at bc and also struggled with at duke.  Shooting at home helps due to familiarity, and let’s hope VT can knock down some early threes and JT can hit his 15-18 footers.
• Bonus Shot: Believe in the Magic!  The undefeated 7-0 maroon dress jeans will be in the building on Saturday!

STARTERS:

STATS:

Popularity: 28% [?]

THE SETUP:

This game worries me… a lot.  Many Hokie fans I’ve spoken with just assume Tech is going to beat bc and nc state, then hope we win one of the games against maryland and georgia tech.  But that logic is flawed for a couple of reasons:

• It is very tough to win on the road in the ACC, with the home teams taking about 70% of the games.
• The eagles had VT beat in the meeting in Blacksburg, back when VT was just 1-1 in conference.  The Hokies were the beneficiaries of a very controversial jump-ball call with 21 seconds to go (Jeff Allen was touching the basketball and clearly standing out of bounds and the bc player was clearly trying to call a timeout even before that).

So don’t just chalk this one up as a ‘W’ and start preparing for the trash that is maryland.  This game is a ‘50/50′ game as one of the Hard Times patrons put it the other night.

That said, if the Hokies can build off that hunger of losing to duke and play with passion and intensity like they have since the game in miami, you have to like the Hokies’ chances.  Actually, I’d like to see VT come out and just shave the eagles bald, just like they did at nc state two weeks ago (not sure what that meant but it sounded good).

And there are some good omens going into the game Wednesday:

• VT is 8-1 in ACC games not on Sunday and 5-0 on weekdays.  Their only ‘weekday’ loss all season was the game against temple, which was after Friday happy hours had started so I’d call that a weekend game.
• Tech has won 5 of the last 6 against the eagles.
• The Hokies are the better team (thanks, Captain Obvious).

THE FIRST MEETING – VT 63, bc 62

Recap | Game Film | Photo Gallery | Boxscore | The Opposing View

(I rewatched the game) The game in Blacksburg back in mid-January was a classic 2009-10 Hokie slugfest – low scoring and at times, low excitement.  Tech jumped out to a 14-point lead largely due to its ability to create live ball turnovers into fast break points.  By my count, VT had 10 fast break points out of their first 21 points and three of them were on breakaway dunks.  This allowed Tech to build up a 38-24 lead thanks to a 15-3 run late in the first half.  Then Delaney picked up his second foul and had to sit the remaining 3 minutes.  bc shaved the lead down to 9 at the half.

The second half wasn’t any better offensively once Delaney was back in.  The Hokies scored just 4 points between the 3:30 mark of the first half and the 10:30 mark of the second half.  Just 4 points in 13 minutes of play!  By then the lead was gone and it was nip-and-tuck the rest of the way.  Neither team led by more than 4 in the final 10 minutes.  Tech, down 3 with 30 seconds to go, got 2 free throws from Delaney and then the questionable jump-ball call on the baseline.  After draining clock, Victor Davila fumbled the ball away inside (stop me if you’ve seen that before) but Zo Hudson was right there on the right side of the basket to grab the ball and lay it in.

The clock showed 9.2 seconds after the Hudson make but the refs determined the clock had stopped during the possession.  bc was given 5 seconds to try and win the game.  Reggie Jackson dribbled up the court but ran into his own man and Delaney and the ball rolled away to Jeff Allen as the clock ran out.

The game was also very physical with 40 fouls called, 24 on bc.  Coach Greenberg called them the most physical team in the league, which I find hard to believe after the VT/clemson game.

Offense:

VT really had no offense except for fast break points.  Like I said above, half their points early on were off bc turnovers leading to easy buckets.  At the half, bc had over 10 turnovers to just 3 for VT.  The Hokies were not knocking down open looks.  They shot just 39% for the game (32% in the second half).  Davila and Allen missed a couple of really easy shots near the rim (actually, the whole team did).  Tech had way too many misses close in, and were just 2/14 on three-pointers after Delaney hit his first 2 from deep.

In this game Tech needs to be aggressive again and get out in transition.  That is when this offense is at its best.  Hopefully Allen and Davila will do a better job finishing near the rim (if Allen can stay on the floor).  VT didn’t do a great job getting to the line in the last meeting so really attacking the tin will be key (JT Thompson, Hudson, and Delaney).

In the second half VT started taking bad shots and turning the ball over.  All in all, they had a 4 minute scoring drought in the second half, and 13 minutes with just 4 points in the second.  Not good.

When Tech gets out in transition, they MUST take better shots.  All season they have settled for jumpshots on the break when they have numbers.  It almost never goes in.  And when they do drive and dish, they often pass too late where it is an achievement just to get to pull the ball back out.  The Hokies have 1) go at the goal on the run, and 2) either pass it about 10-12 feet from the hoop (not 5 or less), or go up strong and draw a foul.

Defense:

bc shot 53% in the first half yet trailed by 9.  The reason was all those turnovers the Hokies were forcing.  bc was actually getting a lot of good looks from 15-18 feet.  The eagles run a flex offense with 3 or 4 men on the baseline and the Hokies were getting lost in all the screening and movement and not flashing out to pick up open eagles as they went out to the perimeter.  Tech must do a better job of either getting through screens or helping out if you see your man is stuck down in the quagmire on the baseline.  bc was getting nothing in the paint.

The second half wasn’t any better as the eagles shot 57% then.  For the game they hit 55% of their shots.  But they ended up with 20 turnovers and that is what ultimately did them in.  Plus, they grabbed just 4 offensive rebounds as Tech did a great job on the glass when they missed.

The scary thing is they shot 55% and Joe Trapani, their best shooter, was just 2/5 from the field (his lowest number of shot attempts all season).  He only had 6 points for the game.  Tech did a great job not giving him good looks.

The Hokies used a tiny bit of zone in the first meeting and I think that could work since bc is not a good three-point shooting team.  They are 10th in the league in 3-point FG% and 9th in makes.

Starters:

• F – Joe Trapani – Their best pure shooter and scorer.  Despite being 6′8″, he is not very good with his back to the basket.  Good perimeter shooter (32% on threes) and this year has done a good job of pump faking and then driving.  Likes to face up, not play with his back to the basket.
• PG – Reggie Jackson – He’s the only guy that can break you down with his handle for the eagles.  He is a good finisher around the hoop, very athletic.  He is second on the team in scoring and assists, and is third in rebounds despite being a point guard.  Not a good 3-point shooter but shoots about 3.5 per game (30% makes).  Used to come off the bench but now starts again and plays 30 minutes.
• F – Corey Raji – Another guy that does his damage closer in.  Hasn’t made a three all year.  Is just 6′6″ but can get offensive rebounds.  Guard him from 15-feet in and get a body on him on shots.
• G/F – Rakim Sanders – Despite his size (6′5″ and 230) at the 2-guard spot, he isn’t a good rebounder.  Another average 3-point shooter (30%).  Decent mid-range shooter and he is decent off the drive, just not as good as Jackson as his ballhandling isn’t that great.  Shoots under 40% from the floor and will take bad shots.
• C – Josh Southern – Just a goon to eat up space inside, not a scorer.  Hasn’t reached 20 minutes in any of the last 8 games.

Bench – Tyler Roche is the X-factor in this game.  He scores just over 7 ppg but has surpassed 30 twice this year, including 31 against wake.  He loves to shoot from the outside.  I said they stink at 3s, and other than him, they do.  He hits 44% of his 70 threes, but even that breaks down to just 1.3 makes per game.  But if he’s hot, look out.  Hope he misses his first shot or two, then he may just disappear (Tyler had just 1 shot and 0 points the game after he went for 31 against wake).

Biko Paris, who was starting at the point, will spell Jackson and other at guard.  He is a very good assist man.  Expect him to dish if he gets into the paint on the drive.

Dallas Elmore had a decent game off the bench in the first meeting but doesn’t play a lot normally – most of his time was due to others’ foul troubles.

Check out the Opposing View article with Brian from BC Interruption (linked above) for more on bc.  That was from before the first meeting.

STARTERS:

bc STATS:

VT STATS:

BORING FACTS ABOUT boston college:

• Established in 1863
• Type: Private – Jesuit
• Undergrad: 9k
• Postgrad: 4.5k
• Location: Chestnut Hill (just west of downtown Boston)
• Mascot: Baldwin the eagle (get it?  Bald eagle… win games… Baldwin)
• bc participates in the Beanpot Tournament – a hocket tourney of bc, bu, northeastern, and harvard at the Boston Bruins (and Celtics) arena.
• Their football stadium seats just 44.5k (and they still don’t sell it out for big games and basketball arena seats 8.6k

Famous Alums:

• Ed McMahon (Yes!)
• Chris O’Donnell
• Leonard Nimoy (no relation)
• Amy Poehler
• Elisabeth Hasselbeck
• Tip O’Neill
• John Kerry
• Mike Lupica
• John McLaughlin
• Bob Ryan
• Lesley Visser
• Jared Dudley
• Bruce Pearl
• and of course, Doug Flutie - Flutie Hail Mary against miami

Popularity: 27% [?]

THE SETUP:

Take the biggest nerd from your high school, then the most Tri-Lambda-like person from 6,399 other schools, and you have the duke undergraduate population.*  All they have from a social aspect is basketball.  Thank goodness they have that.

Sunday night the ACC’s first place blue devils take on the second place Virginia Tech Hokies.  It is the Alpha Betas against the Tri-Lambs!  Let’s just hope the cool kids win this time.

*NOTE: Fox still hasn’t run with my idea of putting a florida state fraternity at duke for a semester and letting them run amuck.

STARTERS:

Normally you could say the Hokies match-up well with the blue devils from a size standpoint, at least compared to a team like wake forest or fsu who always has a bunch of trees inside.  But this year the devils feature three players that stand 6′10″ or taller and play 15 minutes or more (Zoubek and the Plumlee brothers).  That isn’t counting 6′8″ power forward Lance (tell me that isn’t a Revenge of the Nerds name) Thomas or 6′8″ wing player Kyle Singler.  So Tech will have their work cut out for them, yet again, on the glass.  Luckily, duke’s bigs aren’t the scoring threats that fsu’s, georgia tech’s, or wake’s are.  The Plumlees and Zoubek (think Frankenstein) average just 16.5 ppg, but do grab more than 6 offensive rebounds per game.  duke as a team is #1 in the conference in Offensive Rebounds per game at 14.9 per game and Offensive Rebounding Percentage at 41%

The strength of duke is their guards and wings.  Singler was the ACC Preseason of the Year, but he’s just third on the team in scoring.  Scheyer, Smith, and Singler rank #2, 4, and 8 in the conference in scoring average.  They combine for over 53 ppg (remind you of VT’s team last year?).  Scheyer moved to the point this year from shooting guard and has been fantastic.  Hudson will likely draw him due to his 6′5″ frame.  Smith is the speedster, just a step slower than Ty Lawson was.  But Smith has also been great from three-point range this year, hitting 42% of his 93 threes.  And Singler, who struggled from the outside earlier in the year, has the complete package.  He’s hit 25 threes in  his last 7 games, including 8/10 against georgia tech.  Kyle can shoot over you, or drive and finish near the rim.  He also has a strong mid-range game.

The Triple S Crew are all great three-point shooters.  Singler, Smith, and Scheyer all shoot over 39% on threes and they have made 165 threes on the year.  duke leads the league in three-pointers made AND percentage.

It really is pick your poison with duke.  If you go out and guard them on the perimeter, they will penetrate and either kick it out to sliding perimeter player for three as you leave him to help, or find the open man inside for a layup.  If you back off them outside, they will kill you from long distance, or even if they miss, they grab the long rebounds.  duke does a great job of spacing on the outside either running their motion offense or 1-4 (4 perimeter) set.  duke is not great at breaking teams down off the dribble but can use screening to open up lanes.  The blue devils are also great in transition despite not having what you would consider great athletes.  Smith is extremely quick and a great finisher near the hoop.  Maybe not as quick or as good of a finisher as Ish Smith of wake, but then again Ish cannot shoot from beyond 10 feet while Nolan Smith can.

Off the bench the blue devils have the Plumlees.  Miles is a year older but Mason, a freshman, is going to be the better of the two.   Mason is a big time dunker already and is one of the few duke players (along with Smith) you would call a great athlete.  Mason wouldn’t beat Gerald Henderson in a dunk contest, but he can bring it.  And both are high energy guys much like Virginia Tech’s Jackson brothers in the mid-90s.  Both are great offensive rebounders but neither can, or will, stroke it from the outside.

Summary, duke is #2 in ACC play in Scoring Offense and #1 in Scoring Defense.  I.e. they are pretty good.

SIX PACK OF KEYS TO WINNING:

• Start Fast: Tech has not left the gates well at duke in past years.  They were down 11-0 before the TV feed even made it to Cameron Indoor last year at duke, and VT lost 69-44.  Then at Tech they fell behind 20-5.  They did tie that game up in the second half but ultimately fell.  Tech’s been behind by at least 10 points in the first half in 4 of the last 5 meetings (every meeting except the win at duke in 2007).  And let’s not even talk about that 35 point drubbing back in 2005.  The Hokies cannot afford to fall behind early and have to play from behind.
• Win the Turnover Margin: VT is #1 in Turnover Margin in ACC action.  duke is #2.  But if Tech is going to win on the road, they have to find a way to win this battle despite how experienced and talented the duke backcourt is.  At the very least, hope that the Hokie turnovers are deadball ones (limiting transition opportunities) while duke’s are live ball turnovers to get the VT transition game going.
• Don’t Expect the Whistle Song: Tech is tied with wake for the most free throw attempts in conference games.  Don’t expect that to happen in Cameron Indoor.  The Hokies need to find ways to score without getting to the line, and avoid committing dumb fouls that get duke to the line early in halves.  VT has been playing extremely aggressive defense lately to get their transition game jump-started, but it also has led to a lot of foul calls.  In this game, it will definitely lead to a lot of foul calls.  Jeff Allen must be careful.  FYI: duke is #3 in FT% in ACC play behind VT.
• Block Party and Pajama-Jammy Jam: The Raines block leading to a Hudson dunk against wake really got the Hokies cooking on Tuesday.  In fact, VT has been doing a great job blocking shots lately.  They had a negative Block Margin in 7 of their first 8 ACC games, but have a 26-12 advantage in blocks in the last three games.  They had just 21 blocks in their first 8 games, with 26 in the last 3.  Then some dunks are always nice.
• 5 Guys, 1 Rebound: All 5 Hokies must help out on the glass.  Since duke shoots so many threes, that means long rebounds when they do actually miss.  Their bigs will battle on the glass on any shot.  Every Hokie must help out, but once secured, find ways to push the ball up the floor.
• Break the Streaks: duke has won 7 in a row (compared to VT’s 5).  duke has won 3 in a row in the series.  VT is 0-2 in ACC play on Sundays.  But this team has been all about breaking past history, and Sunday night is a big chance to do that.

Bonus Shot: The biggest key for the Hokies is finding ways to score.  duke plays great, suffocating defense.  They’ll use some full court press but even in the half court they really come out and defend you beyond the three-point line, knowing even if you beat them off the dribble one of their help defenders can block the shot or draw a charge (like the 4 or 5 called on VT last year in Blacksburg).  duke makes it tough to get into your half court sets and force you to make your first pass well beyond the three-point line where you aren’t setting up a shot.  So Tech must find ways to get out in transition.  The problem with that is duke’s guards don’t have to go after offensive rebounds since their low post players are so good at offensive rebounding, the guards can drop back.  Live ball turnovers will be huge for the Hokies as will just quick inbounds after makes and pushing the ball, or getting the outlet pass up the floor on misses and forcing the issue.  I’d rather Tech attack in transition than have to play in the half court all game.

Most of all, Tech must hit shots.  georgetown shot over 70% (!) in their win over duke a month ago and nc state state shot 58%.  Both shot over 40% on threes.  georgia tech beat duke with their inside game, namely Lawal.  The common thread is all three teams had a huge game from a post player (Lawal, Tracy Smith, and Monroe).  Jeff Allen must stay out of foul trouble and have a big game, and everyone else needs to hit open looks.  I.e. VT needs to play a great offensive game like they did in the second half Tuesday.

STATS:

SERIES:

• All-time: duke 35-7
• Last year: VT lost 69-44 at duke, scoring just 13 second half points, and 72-65 in Blacksburg.
• In ACC Play: duke 6-2
• At duke: 16-1 (3-1 in ACC action)

“The Highlight” from VT’s last win at duke three years ago (think Lipton teabag):

Popularity: 25% [?]

THE SETUP:

VT is favored by 5.5. 

It is a silver-out on Tuesday as the Hokies and deacons meet in the Cassell with second place in the ACC on the line.  This game is especially huge for the Hokies for several reasons (in order of importance):

1. NCAA Tourney – wake sits at 11th in the current RPI.  A win over the deacs would be Tech’s best win by far.  clemson had a good week and is back up to #34 and seton hall sits at #55, but those are the only VT wins ranked higher than #80.
2. ACC Standings – a win and VT moves into 2nd place all alone at 8-3.  The Hokies would have locked up the tiebreaker against wake, uva, and clemson with a win, the current 2nd, 5th, and 6th place teams.  Tech would have to have a major collapse to not finish in the top four of the final standings.  The top four get a bye in the First Round of the ACC Tournament, something Tech has accomplished three times in their five years in the league already.
3. Winning Streak – Tech’s current four game ACC winning streak matches their longest since joining the league, something they’ve done four times now.  But they never got the fifth in a row yet.
4. Home Winning Streak – VT hasn’t started a season 14-0 at home since the 1982-83 season, when they started 15-0 before losing their regular season home finale.  They won a NIT game at home to finish 16-1 at the Cassell this year, the most home wins in the history of the Cassell.  Tech improves to 14-0 at home with a win.
5. ACC Regular Season Record – the Hokies are 45-45 all time in ACC regular season games.
6. I dislike wake and would really enjoy this.

So as you can see, this is a huge game for the Hokies!   Let’s make sure the Cassell is even more nuts than it has been the last three games.  TechHoops.com will be at Hard Times Cafe in Clarendon so come on out to root on the Hokies and enjoy chili, wings, and brews.

Player Notes:

• Jeff Allen has averaged 14.6 ppg over the last five games.  He had reached double digits in just one of the first five VT ACC games.
• Malcolm Delaney has scored 20 or more points 12 times this season.  He’s hit the 30 point mark three times.
• Dorenzo Hudson is averaging 16.2 ppg in ACC play, good for 8th in the league, bettering Aminu’s 15.5 ppg in ACC play.
• Aminu had just 10 points against VT last year as they lost their first game, coming in at 16-0 and #1 in the nation.
• Ish Smith had 19 points and 19 assists last week in their two wins.
• Terrell Bell is Tech’s leading rebounder in ACC games at 5.9, just ahead of Jeff Allen’s 5.8.  He is 9th in ACC games in Defensive Rebounds at 2.9.
• Hudson is 5th in the ACC in FG% in conference games (minimum 5 FG per game) at 47%.  And to think we used to think he couldn’t shoot.
• Victor Davila is 9th in the ACC in Offensive Rebounds per game at 2.7 in ACC games.
• Delaney is 4th in ACC play in Assists and FT%.  Allen is 2nd in Steals.

THE SERIES:

The Hokies have owned, and I mean paid for in full, since joining the ACC.  Tech is 5-2 since joining the league against wake and have won five of six.  That is Tech’s best winning percentage against any ACC team other than miami (slightly better at 8-3) and georgia tech, who VT is also 5-2 against.  Even that one loss was when the Hokies collapsed in the final moments in the 2007-08 ACC opener and lost on a jumper just before the buzzer by Ishmael Smith.

Last Game: VT took down the #1 ranked demon deacons in Winston-Salem – Recap.  The Hokies got a bit lucky in that one, as wake lost their massive inside size advantage due to foul trouble and a busted face for Aminu of wake.  In fact, three deacons fouled out.  But even after seeing a 16-point first half lead slowly dwindle down to two with under three minutes to go, the Hokies found a way to win by hitting half their free throws (Tech was just 12/23 from the line in the second half) and poor shooting from the deacs, who were not a good long range shooting team.  Delaney had 21 to lead the Hokies and Allen added 16.

• ACC Games: VT 5-2
• All-Time Series: wake 26-25
• At VT: VT 18-9
• At Home in ACC Play: VT 2-1

THE OPPONENT:

Gone from last year’s wake squad that was extremely talented are Jeff Teague and James Johnson.  They combined for 41 points in the meeting last year.  And while this team doesn’t have the talent last year’s did, they do play well as a group and are taking advantage of a down ACC year.

wake’s star is sophomore Al-Farouq Aminu.  He would be First Team All-ACC if the season had ended this past weekend.  Aminu averages 16.5 ppg, good for seventh in the league, and 10.9 rebounds per game, tops in the league.  He is also in the top 10 in field goal percentage (6th), steals (7th), and blocked shots (6th).  Al is #1 in the ACC in offensive AND defensive rebounds per game.  At 6′9″ he is a match-up nightmare for most teams.  He isn’t thick but is extremely athletic and has a pretty good midrange jumper.  Aminu will shoot the occasional three but hits under 30%.  But he does most of his damage around the rim, either throwing down insane dunks or grabbing offensive rebounds and putting them back in.

While Aminu is a problem for most teams, Tech is lucky in that they have two games that match-up fairly well with him.  While Terrell Bell and JT Thompson both give up three inches to Aminu, they at least have the athleticism and rebounding skills to stick with him.  And Jeff Allen can match his height and also is a great rebounder.  Whomever guards him must force Aminu to shoot over them from 10-feet plus, and not let him get the ball near the rim or in transition where he can really do damage.

Aminu is the superstar but senior point guard Ishmael Smith is the Ferrari that speeds the wake express.  Smith got benched last year in favor of NBA First Round Pick Jeff Teague and saw his minutes drop to 22 per game (he’s averaged 30-plus every other year including just under 37 this year).  But Smith has really stepped up his game this year and if it wasn’t for a man named Zo Hudson, Ishmael might be considered the most improved player in the league.  Smith still cannot shoot from the outside, hitting just 23% of his 43 threes, but he has finally stopped shooting so many.  The key is his ability to penetrate and finish.  Smith may be the best finisher in the league in the lane.  Ish will shoot some wild, acrobatic runners yet he hits most of them.  Combine that with the fact he is lightning-quick, and is a great passer, and you see why the deacs are 8-3 and maybe the best ACC team in transition.  Smith is averaging a career high 13 ppg (more than double last year), is tied for second in assists per game at 6.1, and is fourth in steals at 1.9 per game.

As Greenberg mentioned Monday night on Tech Talk Live, they love to set screens for him and may have five or six different ways and angles to free him up.  Even in transition he looks to use his bigs running up the court to rub defenders off.

The Hokies must get back and stop Smith on the break.  Tech simply doesn’t have a guy that can guard him one-on-one or keep up with him on the break.  But getting back and cutting him off will help.  I never thought I’d say this, but Hank Thorns would have helped a lot to keep up with him.  Hudson is Tech’s best defensive guard so he’ll likely draw Smith with Erick Green helping out to rest Zo when Erick is in.  Smith is just 6-foot tall so the Hokie guards will have size on him they can exploit on offense.

And when Ish does beat you, foul him.  He is hitting just 48% of his free throws, an amazingly pathetic percentage.

Chas McFarland, a 7-foot senior, hasn’t stepped up his game like I would have thought with James Johnson gone.  He is averaging just 7.6 ppg, his low since his freshman year, but does grab 7.5 rebounds, good for 10th in the ACC.  Despite his height, he isn’t a shot blocking threat (read: he isn’t very athletic).  Chas can finish on the low block if you let him get the ball near the hope.  I’d expect to see Davila draw this assignment and put Allen on a more athletic player, like Aminu in certain situations depending on match-ups.

L.D. Williams, yet another wake senior, is having a solid year with 8.7 ppg and a career high 5.5 rebounds.  He has averaged 8.x ppg all four years, so he is a model of consistency, or lack of progress, depending on your view.  But L.D. is the best leaper in the league and gives the deacs another great athlete, probably their best.  He can really get up and facial or alley-oop dunks are common for him.  Luckily since this game is at VT that stuff cannot insight the crowd, but it sure can extinguish it.  Williams is also the best wake defender and they will have him on Delaney or Hudson.

The big key for wake this year has been the play of two underrated freshman, C.J. Harris (a guy VT really wanted) and Ari Stewart.  C.J. is averaging 10.7 ppg, which I believe is second in the ACC among freshman behind Derrick Favors 11.0.  Stewart averages 7.8 ppg off the bench.  The two freshman finally give the deacons a three-point presence, something they completed lacked last year.  Stewart and Harris have combined to hit 60 of 152 threes (39%).  Stewart is slightly better of the two from deep, while Harris has a more diverse offensive game.  Harris is a 6′2″ guard and Stewart is a 6′7″ forward.  They’ll split their minutes for the most part, as the deacs start with a three guard lineup (Smith, Harris, and Williams) but can go bigger.

Also off the bench are Woods, Weaver, and Clark.  Woods and Weaver are big men, both of which are 6′11″, but just haven’t panned out to date (add 7′ Ty Walker to that list – he doesn’t even play).  Gary Clark is a would-be sharp-shooting guard off the bench that just hasn’t been given much of a chance due to many shooting slumps.

Obviously the deacons have a ton of size to throw at you, but have gone more athletic this year and it has paid off.  It will be interesting to see who Greenberg puts on Aminu.  With Al at 6′9″ and wake starting three guards, it may have to be Jeff Allen.   I like Bell and Thompson on him better but that just may not work since who else could Allen guard?  I think Allen could go on Stewart when he’s in, though he sits on the perimeter mostly.

The key will be Allen staying out of foul trouble.  Though loose whistles would be a big help for the Hokies.  We saw how much VT struggled for points against uva when the refs weren’t calling any fouls.  It would be nice to get wake in foul trouble again like last year.

SIX PACK OF KEYS TO WINNING:

• Slow Smith: Tech must keep him in front of them.  Even after a make, he’ll accelerate the inbounds pass up the court and make you pay.  The Hokies must cut him off, and if all else fails, use your fouls on him.  His free throw attempts could be called turnovers since he is under 50%.
• Do Your Thing, Part 1: The Hokies are #1 in the ACC in Turnover Margin and FT%.  Tech must be aggressive and get to the line (and hope the officials don’t swallow their whistles like on Saturday).  wake is not as strong at the line, hitting just 66% compared to VT’s 76% in ACC action.
• Do Your Thing, Part 2: To win the turnover battle, Tech must protect the ball.  wake has three guys that are in the top 10 in the ACC in steals (Aminu, Smith, and Williams).  Do not let wake get live ball turnovers, where their athleticism can really burn you.  VT, who is second in the league in steals per game in ACC play, must once again create turnovers led by Jeff Allen (who is also second in the league in steals per game) and Malcolm Delaney (who is 10th).  wake has a negative turnover margin in ACC games, so Tech should be able to exploit this area, and needs to in order to win.
• Windex: Tech has struggled of late on the defensive glass, dropping from #1 in the league in D-Rebound% to 7th at 64%.  wake is 5th in the league in Offensive Rebounding Percentage at 67% and the deacons have a ton of size, so VT must do better  in this area.
• Battle of Strengths: VT has held their last three opponents to a 33% of less FG%.  They are now 4th in the ACC at 41% in FG%-Defense.  wake is #2 in FG%-Offense in ACC play at 44%.  That is thanks to a lot of layups in transition, and short shots by their bigs.  Again, get back on D and force wake to beat you from the outside.
• The Undefeated Maroon Dress Jeans: The 7-0 maroon Wrangler dress jeans will NOT be in the building Tuesday due to an extreme odor emanating from them after the victory celebration Saturday night.  But fear not, they will be back for the maryland game in less than two weeks after a cleaning.  So get your Wild Turkey ready (another good luck charm).  Or just believe in VT’s swagger against wake.

STARTERS:

STATS:

BORING FACTS ABOUT wake

• ACC Basketball Championships: 4 (‘61, ‘62, ‘95, ‘96 – in other words, only back-to-backs)
• Final Four Appearances: 1 (‘62)
• wake is the only NC school to win an outright ACC football championship (in 2007) since 1980.  Only one school has tied for an ACC title in that stretch: duke.  How sad is that, unc and nc state?
• Founded in 1834 in Wake Forest, NC, just outside Raleigh.  Moved to Winston-Salem in 1956… that’s right, they aren’t even in the town they are named for!
• Undergrad Enrollment: 4,400
• Type: Private (and uppity)
• Ties: Baptist
• Students: The screamin’ deacons wear tie-dyed shirts to games even though it looks dumb and has the entire six years they’ve been doing it.
• Biggest Jerk Alum: Billy Packer
• Nicest Alums: Arnold Palmer and Tim Duncan
• Other Famous Students: Chris Paul, Randolph Childress (his performance in the 95 ACC Tourney was nothing short of incredible), Dr. Jerry Punch (sideline reporter… got his doctorate at wake… why does a sideline reporter need that?… played QB for Lou Holtz at nc state… OK, enough about this dude), Brian Piccolo (of Brian’s Song… great movie – see the James Caan version), Rodney Rogers (who recently became paralyzed due to an ATV accident), Lanny Watkins, and Lee Norris (been in a bunch of TV shows I will never watch like 1 Tree Hill and Boy Meets World)

Popularity: 30% [?]

THE SETUP:

While most of Virginia has been strangled with a whiteout from all the snow in the last week, on Saturday it’s a blackout, people!  Ugh, don’t get me started… well, I guess I just did.  Why do we have a blackout?  Last I checked, our school colors are Chicago maroon and burnt orange.  We have a ‘Maroon Monsoon’, we have a ‘White Out’ which I can kind of understand because we wear white at home, but no orange out or anything.  Instead, we have a blackout that has nothing to do with our colors.  Are we going to wear black jerseys?  We didn’t last year for that blackout when Tech blew a double-digit second half lead and lost to clemson.  Are we going to turn the lights out for introductions, a pseudo blackout?  We’ll see.  I’m just trying to understand.  But enough of the fashion police.

The Hokies come into this game on a Kaiser roll, having won six of their last seven games.  Tech also sports an undefeated home record at 12-0.  But VT will be tested in the next two games, playing the ACC’s #5 (uva) and #3 (wake) teams at home.  Two wins would really vault the Hokies into a firm grip on a first round bye for the ACC Tourney, a split keeps them on the brink, and two losses will knock them out of the top four in all likelihood.  So it is high drama in the Cassell!

And you want a good luck charm?  Niemo’s beloved maroon “dress jeans” will be in the building Saturday.  These Wrangler skin-tight beauties have a perfect 5-0 (might be 6-0, can’t remember if I wore them for the georgia game) record, including 2-0 against the hoos.  So watch out!  And tell your old lady not to give you any crap about wanting to watch/go to this game Saturday night – Valentine’s Day isn’t until Sunday.

THE FIRST MEETING:

Highlights – VT 76, uva 71

Included in Tech’s recent hot streak was a 76-71 win over the hoos in ch’ville (Recap) just over two weeks ago, completing the football/basketball sweep in hooville.  In that game Tech seemingly didn’t show up until the clock hit five minutes.  The Hokies used an 18-5 run to close the first half and go into the break up 28-27.

The Hokies then fell behind by double-digits in the second half thanks in part to the ejection of Jeff Allen for throwing an elbow (a BS call).  But once again the cardiac kids answered.  Trailing 62-52 with under three minutes to play. VT went on a 13-0 run to lead 65-62 with under 10 seconds to play.  Seemingly with the game in hand, uva’s auto parts wiz Sammy Zeglinski drained a fadeaway three from NBA range with 1.3 seconds left to send the game to OT.

But as you regular readers know, you just don’t go to an extra session with the Hokies and win.  Tech dominated the bonus period, jumping to a quick five point lead in OT and outscoring uva 10-3 in the first 4:40.  A late three by uva made the final 76-71.  But the Hokies had their ninth straight overtime win in ACC play.

One of the reasons Tech was so close to losing was the play of uva’s stars, Sylven Landesberg and Mike Scott.  Those two guys had big games, especially in the first half, tallying 18 and 21 points respectively.  They both shot 8/16 from the floor.  Tech must force other people to beat them.  Jeff Jones double his average with 12 and Jerome Meyinsse had a surprising 9, but the Hokies held the rest of the hoos in check.  Zeglinski had just 3 points until his game-tying shot and another three in OT.

The Hokies also didn’t get to the foul line until less that 10 minutes remained in regulation.  The way VT has been getting to the line lately, with very aggressive play from guys like Hudson and JT Thompson, I don’t think that will be an issue on the Hokies’ home floor.

Another surprise in the first game is the hoos had more points off turnovers then the Hokies with a slight 18-16 lead.  But since that is such a key to the Hokies’ game, it is amazing VT still won.

SERIES:

• All-Time: uva 79-51
• In ACC Play: 6-6
• At the Cassell: VT 26-16 and 4-1 since joining the ACC
• Streak: VT has won 4 of 5 with 3 of those wins going to OT

THE opponent:

I broke down the hoos in my preview just over two weeks ago: First Meeting Preview

Basically, it comes down to this.  You could call Delaney and Landesberg a wash (20 ppg to 18 ppg) – Delaney (usually) is a better outside shooter while Sylven is a better finisher around the room and both are great from the line.  You could call Jeff Allen and Mike Scott a wash, and both have similar numbers – 11.5 ppg and 7.5 rpg for Allen to 13.1 and 7.4 rpg, though Allen has a huge edge in steals/blocks at 47/24 to 12/6.  So you might give the edge to Allen based on his defense.  But the rest of the Hokie cast is superior to uva’s in my opinion.  Hudson versus Zeglinski?  No contest – all Zo (13.7 ppg to 10.0).  Bell against Evans (uva’s defensive specialist)?  No contest, the bell tolls for Bell – 5.9 ppg and 41 combined steals/blocks to 2.7 ppg and 41 steals/blocks.  Davila against Meyinsse?  Well, alright, I’ll call that a wash, too – 6 ppg to 5 ppg and Meyinsse has better defensive stats and they average the same number of rebounds per minutes played.

Off the bench, I’ll take JT Thompson (8.4 ppg in ACC play) over anyone uva has.  Erick Green (3.5 ppg) probably isn’t as good yet as Mustapha Farrakhan (6.9 ppg) or Jeff Jones (6.5 ppg) from a scoring perspective, but those guys aren’t consistent and could be invisible.  Jones has only played 11 minutes total since the VT game as senior Calvin Baker (3.6 ppg – I’d take Green over him in a heartbeat) has regained playing time.

SIX PACK OF KEYS TO WINNING:

• Pressure: uva had fits getting past the VT press at the end of the first meeting.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see it in bursts on Saturday, but since Delaney and Hudson play most of the game, don’t expect much of it.  Would be a good change of pace at times.  Tech barely won the turnover battle the first time and lost in points off turnovers, so anything VT can do to flip that in this game would help.
• Bottle the first 10 minutes of the state game: VT hit their first 10 shots of the nc state game, after shooting just 15% in the first half against clemson and just 30% for the game.  Let’s hope the Hokies find ways to get easy buckets like they did against the pack (they had six layups out of those 10 shots and hit both threes).  That won’t be easy against the hoos, who are far superior on defense.  But Tech was good at the end of the halves in ch’ville when they were aggressive, especially JT Thompson.  Plus, that will lead to free throws which VT was not getting in the first meeting.  Tech also was smarter on the break on Wednesday, not settling for pull up jumpers when they had numbers in transition.  The Hokies went hard at the glass and either got layups, and-1’s, or foul shots most of the time.  That’s how breaks are supposed to look, not 18-foot jumpers.
• Limit the production of Landesberg and Scott – double Scott down low unless you are on Sylven (never leave him)… force Landesberg to beat you from the outside – he hit 2/5 threes in ch’ville but has made just 13 on the year.  If he beats you from behind the arc, then just tip your cap.
• Rebound: Tech was great on the defensive boards in the first meeting against the hoos, grabbing 75% of their misses.  But they have struggled in this area in their last three games, including grabbing just 60% of the pack misses, and they are small like uva.  Tech is -24 in rebounding margin in the last three games.  The Hokies have to win 50/50 ball battles like they were early in the season and really squeeze the leather.
• Keep doing what your doing: The Hokies are playing great defense lately.  clemson and nc state have shot under 31% in the last two games.  uva shot just 44% in the first meeting.
• I wear my undefeated maroon pants and I have some Wild Turkey before the game (also usually means a win).

I’d also expect a huge game from Jeff Allen.  As the Roanoke Times’ Mark Berman pointed out, he hasn’t gotten to play much against the hoos lately.  He missed the game at uva last year because of him flipping off the maryland fans the game before, and missed the final 12 minutes of the game last month for his alleged flying elbow.  Jeff had just four points in that game.  If you go back further, Allen had just three points on 0/7 shooting in the game in Blacksburg last January.  So the hoos have had his number.  Jeff did go for double-digits in both games against the hoos his freshman year, and he has scored 10+ in all four games since the uva ejection.  Like I said, expect him to step up Saturday.

STARTERS:

STATS:

Popularity: 32% [?]

Spread: Game is a pick’em

THE SETUP:

Tell me if you’ve heard this before: a pretty good Virginia Tech team takes on a really crappy nc state team.  Yet, if you are like me, you’d think we were playing the L.A. Lakers all-time team.  Their lousy point guard?  He’ll look like Magic Johnson for one night.  Their shooting guard that can’t shoot?  He’s suddenly Kobe Bryant (on the court, that is, not off it).  Their undersized center?  You got it, he’s Kareem for two hours.  Then add in James Worthy and Jerry West for good measure.

Since joining the ACC, the Hokies have played the role of the Washington Generals with nc state as the Harlem Globetrotters.  Let’s look at some of the oddities of this series:

• VT is 2-6 against the pack since joining the ACC.  But in the win last year, which snapped a six game losing streak, VT trailed by 18 with less than 13 minutes to go, and in the win in 2005, Tech was behind by 11 with just over 7 minutes to go.  So the Hokies could easily be 0-8.
• The Hokies won the first two games at nc state in the series but have lost 19 straight since.  Tech hasn’t won in Raleigh against the pack since 1917!  That’s and even longer streak than clemson at unc, though clemson is something like 0-54 at unc so that’s a good bit worse.
• At nc state is one of just two places VT hasn’t won at since joining the ACC.  florida state is the other (and they just vacated a home win against the Hokies).
• The Hokies have never led in Raleigh after the first 2:30 of the game.  NEVER.  Yeesh.
• Tech has trailed by 19 or more points in 5 of the 8 ACC meetings.  VT’s biggest lead ever against the wolfpack is six.
• The Hokies are -75 in scoring differential in the series in ACC play.
• Tech went 0-3 against the pack three years ago – a year in which VT made it to the 2nd round of the NCAA’s and nc state finished 5-11 in conference.
• VT has had a better conference record going into every meeting except one.  Yet Tech is 2-6 against the pack.

Well, guess what, nc state is tied for last in the ACC again this year at 2-7, while the Hokies come in at 5-3, good for fourth.  And here we go again!

TV Note: The game will be on ESPN, not ESPNU, in areas where the duke at unc game is blacked out (most of the ACC area).  It should be on ESPNU for everyone else.

THE OPPONENT:

How can I sum up the wolfpack in one sentence?  Hmm.  How about this: they aren’t good at anything.  I mean it, nothing.  Check out the ACC stats and you’ll see.  They are not in the top four of any statistical category in the league, overall or in ACC games only, except for 3-pointers made per game (they are fourth in that category).  They are 10th or worse in FG% offense and defense, and are in the bottom half of the league in offensive and defensive rebounding.  They don’t get many steals or blocks, and have an average turnover margin.  They are only eighth in 3-point %.

nc state also has, hands down, the worst coach in the league.  I’m sorry Sidney Lowe, but you are, uh, not good.  You stink.  The pack are 17-40 in ACC games in his four seasons since they ran Herb Sendek out of town.  They have finished 10th, 12th, 10th, and are currently tied for 11th in the ACC.  If he is kept around for a fifth season it will be for one reason – they have an awesome recruiting class coming in next year.  While he may be a nc state legend from their 1983 National Championship, it is time to move on.

The good news for Hokie fans is three of the guys that owned the Hokies the most are gone.  No more Brandon Costner, Ben McCauley, or Courtney Fells.  Those guys were 5-1 against Tech and regularly had career days.  You know they had their calendar’s circled for any meeting between these two clubs.

The pack entered this season fairly inexperienced.  You’d think they were a young team since you don’t recognize many of the names, but in reality it is just because they aren’t very good and didn’t play much in past years, even though state stunk then, too.  Four of their top five scorers are juniors or seniors, but just one of those guys averaged more than 6.6 ppg last year (Tracy Smith).

Speaking of Tracy Smith, that kid is a player.  He’s the most talented packer by far.  Smith ranks sixth in the ACC in points per game and rebounding, at 17.6 and 8.3 respectively.  He’d be a strong candidate for First Team All-ACC if he played for a better team.  Smith is very talented in the low post and is deadly from six feet in.  Tech must keep him from setting up, and receiving the ball, on the low block.  He does not shoot from outside (he has never attempted a three in his career).  His midrange game is decent from 16-feet in, but you’d rather force him to beat you from out there than near the hoop.  Tech must also get a body on him and keep him off the offensive glass, Tracy is by far their best offensive rebounder.  Smith has been on a roll, too, averaging 19.1 ppg over his last seven games and hitting 53 of his last 88 shots, an amazing 60%.  Smith leads the league in FG%.

Javier Gonzalez runs the point for the pack.  He has also underwhelmed me talent-wise.  He has an average assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.2.  Javier is a good three-point shooter at 40% for the second year in a row, but he hasn’t made more than three in any game.  So he is selective about when he shoots.  Get out on him and force him to drive, and when he does drive, expect him to dish the ball.  In other words, the support defense needs to collapse and look to pick up open man in the post when help comes.  Gonzalez averages 10.2 ppg but he can disappear completely some nights.  He’s just 5′11″ so taller defenders can be an issue for him on the perimeter.  The key is stopping his drive.

Dennis Horner would be on my All-ACC Ugly Team.  The senior plays forward at 6′9″ but his game is not in the low post.  He needs a few steaks on him.  I’ve always thought of him as a three-point shooter but he’s never averaged even one made three per game in his career.  That said, he’s not a back to the basket guy and will shoot threes from the corner when open.  Horner has double his ppg from last year, up to 12 per game this season.

If you are the Hokies, you’ll take you odds on leaving guys like Horner open.  The key is stopping Gonzalez’s drive and the feeds to Smith.  Double down on Smith and force someone else to beat you.

That someone else could be freshman Scott Wood.  Wood is averaging just 8.3 ppg but exploded for 31 against fsu in one of the pack’s two ACC wins.  He hit 7/11 threes that game, and 10/15 from the floor overall.  He has made four or more 3s four times this season, so he is their most dangerous shooter behind the arc.  Like with Horner, Wood is way too scrawny to battle in the low post.  He is 6′7″ but just 170 pounds.  Heck, new VT QB Ricardo Young is considered skinny at 170 but he’s just 6′1″.  You could use Wood to jimmy a door, he’s so thin.  Almost two-thirds of his shots are threes.  He is a guy you want to watch on the perimeter.

Senior Farnold Degand had been starting at the off-guard spot for state, but missed the last game with a thigh bruise.  He did not practice Monday and is listed as day-to-day, so he may not play.

state has a 7-footer in freshman Jordan Vandenberg, but he averages just 8 mpg and 1 point.  He is from Australia and probably would not be playing for any other team in the league yet in his career.  But state really lacks any size inside and needs help from him and C.J. Williams, an undersized forward at 6′6″ and 220.  Freshman Richard Howell does give them some bulk at 6′8″ and 265.  He grabs 5 rebounds in about 15 minutes per game.  But inside is not their strength other than Smith.

The pack used just three guys off their bench last game without Degand, so they lack depth.

So, in summary, it is hard to see how this team can win ACC games.  That said, if Tech keeps shooting under 40% in games, anyone can stay with him.  And the RBC Center is a tough place to play (for the big games like unc and duke… we’ll see what the crowd is like for this game with them at 2-7).  The Hokies are due for a breakout game, let’s hope this is it.

SIX PACK OF KEYS TO WINNING:

• Have VT’s sports psychologist convince the Hokies they are playing someone else.
• Double team Tracy Smith and make someone else beat you.
• Do a better job on the defensive glass – the Hokies were dominated on the boards for half of the unc game, and most of the clemson game.  This is not a good rebounding team but they do shoot a lot of threes, so everyone needs to help on the glass.
• Find the barn and water: Tech hasn’t been able to hit the broad side of a barn, or hit water, of late.  Hopefully Delaney can break out of his 4/34 three-point shooting slump and the Hokies can start hitting open looks.  nc state is not a good defensive team, ranking 11th in ACC games in FG% defense, so Tech should be able to get good looks.  Plus, this is not an athletic team so the Hokies should be able to beat them in transition.  Speaking of which…
• Tech is #1 the league in ACC games by far in Turnover Margin.  That is how they win games while shooting terrible.  Winning the turnover battle is crucial in every game VT plays.
• Get it done, some how, some way.  The Hokies seem to invent a new way to win a game each time out (breaking 100 against seton hall, winning despite just 4 FGs in the first half against clemson, or killing the hoos with their press).  Well, now let’s figure out one that works in Raleigh.  As Malcolm Delaney put it, the Hokies do things other stars don’t.  That means selling out and winning 50/50s.  The Hokies must give max effort and bury the lowly pack.

STARTERS:

nc state BY THE NUMBERS:

• Founded: 1887
• Enrollment: 23.7 undergrad, 7.4 postgrad
• National Titles (Basketball): 1974 and 1983
• ACC Titles (Basketball): 10 – last was in 1987 – 3rd most in the ACC
• ACC Football Titles: 7 (tied for 4th most) – none since 1979 – in fact, the two state schools (unc and nc state) haven’t won an ACC football title, or even tied for one, since 1980.  There’s no pigskins on Tobacco Road.

Popularity: 32% [?]

THE SETUP:

Hokies are favored by 3.

That’s right ladies, you get two previews for the price of one – one week only!  Am I being lazy by doing this?  Sort of.  But the main reason is because Tech has two games in less than 48 hours this week, with the c-l-e-m-s-ohhhhhhhhhh-n tigers game starting approximately 41 hours after the conclusion of the unc game.

Each year each ACC team has one quick turnaround game in 48 hours or less.  Just once.  And this week it is the Hokies’ turn.  The good news is both games are at home so travel legs shouldn’t be an issue.  Tech hasn’t been so lucky in past years, with the ACC giving them the proverbial screw job by sending them to bc or miami for the second leg of this sequence (four out of five years they’ve had to travel to bc or miami, the two farthest schools, for the second leg).

The Hokies have had a lot of success in the short turnaround game, winning it four out of five times.  The only loss was last year at boston college, and even that was on a put-back with less than 2 seconds left.  So the Hokies have responded despite a lack of rest.  They haven’t been as good in the first game, losing three of five.

The key this week is burying a hungry unc team on Thursday.  Get a win in the first game, as VT did last week at uva, and it takes a lot of pressure off, especially since the second game may get postponed if the snow storm hits.  Expect the heels to be playing for their NCAA Tournament lives, which in some ways they are.  The Hokies have to match that intensity.

On Saturday, the Hokies have to deal with the insane full court trap of the tigers.  That said, the Hokies did shred it last year in Blacksburg to the point where Oliver Purnell called it off (a strategy that allowed clemson to overcome a 15-point second half deficit and stun the Hokies at home 86-82.  In the second game, Tech again had little trouble with the press and pulled out an 80-77 win in Death Valley.

Both teams come in cold – unc has lost four of five (all in conference) and clemson had lost three in a row before a big win at home against maryland on Sunday, and they don’t play during the week this week.

NOVA Hokies – the unc game may not be on cable in the DC area due to a Raycom split telecast (Channel 20 is showing the maryland game), but you can watch the game at the Clarendon Hard Times!

SERIES:

• All-Time: unc 60-12 | VT 11-10
• ACC Play: unc 7-2 (won 5 straight) | clemson 5-3 (clemson has won 3 in a row at VT)
• Last Meeting: Recap – unc 78, VT 64 | VT_unc Game Film | Recap – VT 80, clemson 77

SIX PACK OF KEYS TO WINNING (3 for unc and then 3 for clemson):

• Better Post Defense: The Hokies allowed unc’s starting big men, Ed Davis and Deon Thompson, to shoot 11/18 from the floor and get 13 foul shots (they made 11) to combine for 33 points.  Davis added 11 rebounds.  Davila, Allen, and Raines (expect to see more of him in this game) must do a better job on them.  Thompson (VT’s) gives up a lot of height to Davis and cannot really guard him but could help with Thompson some.  The good news for Hokie fans is backup 7-footer Tyler Zeller should still be out with an injury (he had 7 rebounds in the first meeting) and Ed Davis has not been himself since suffering an ankle injury.  He has averaged just 8 ppg over his last four games and even missed a game.
• Swagger, not Awe: The heels have lost four of their last five games since beating the Hokies at unc, with their lone win at nc state.  They’ve lost three straight at home and got blown out at clemson.  Sure, they will be wearing that famous feminine powder blue, but this is NOT a good unc team.  The Hokies need to go out with intensity and confidence, knowing they can beat this unc team.  And Tech needs to match the intensity I’m sure the heels will have.  Like with miami, get a lead, and the heels confidence will suffer (didn’t happen at miami).  And VT knows they led at the half by 4, so they know they can play with these guys even on the road.
• Transition Offense: The Hokies are at their best when they are creating live ball turnovers and getting out and running.  This is a lousy half court team, as evidenced by the fact they are last in the ACC in FG% in ACC play at 41.2%.  Tech needs to find easy buckets and that comes from their defense – expect spurts of the full or half court trap, which hopefully lead to turnovers (VT is #1 in turnover margin) via steals (#1 in that, too), and then run-outs for easy buckets.  In the half court, VT really struggled against unc’s size inside.  Let’s hope Hudson stays hot from the outside (13 of his last 26), and Delaney refinds his outside stroke (2/20 from three of late).
• Tame the tiger Press: clemson agenda – plane lands in Roanoke – press the passengers, press the baggage handlers, press the bus driver; arrive at Cassell – press the students trying to get in, press Niemo’s arms so he can’t arm-curl people… you get the idea.  Pressure, pressure, pressure.  That is the name of the game for clemson.  You have to limit your turnovers, especially in the back court, against clemson.  VT was amazing against the tiger press last year.  The key is the first pass… not in a corner where you can be trapped… and then throwing over the press and up the court where you can get odd-man-rushes and easy buckets.  VT shredded the press last year to where they called it off.
• Force clemson into the Half Court: I mentioned VT was last in the ACC in shooting percentage in conference play.  Well, they are in fact tied with clemson.  clemson, as always, is a lousy shooting team.  They win because of the turnovers off the press.  If VT can keep this game in the half court by limiting turnovers, then it comes down to other factors, such as who is hot and who can make free throws.  Well, as always, clemson is at the bottom of the ACC in FT% at 64% (VT is 5th at 70%).  So advantage VT.
• Booker Worm: Believe it or not, Trevor Booker is still around for clemson.  He has the skills of Jeff Allen, the intensity of JT Thompson, and the size of Paul Bunyan.  He is averaging 15.8 ppg and 8.6 rebounds.  He is in teh Top 10 in the ACC in scoring, rebounding, steals, blocks, and FG%.  He is a beast.  Tech must find ways to slow him down, and he will be fresh after a week off while VT will have just played.

STARTERS:

Injury Notes:

• Starting clemson point guard, Demontez Stitt, has missed the last two games with a foot injury.  Since clemson has six days off leading up this game, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him back.  The tigers are a much better team with him playing (healthy, that is).  He averages 11.2 ppg and 3.5 assists, #2 and #1 on the team respectively.  Stitt is lightning quick and creates opportunities for others, and is a decent three-point shooter at 36%.
• Tyler Zeller should still be out another couple of weeks for unc.

Other Notes:

• Thank goodness K.C. Rivers and Terrence Oglesby are gone for clemson.  Both used to light up the Hokies from deep.  Without them, clemson is just 9th in the league at 33% from deep and make just 6.1 per game (down from 8 per game last year, best in the league).  Andre Young and David Potter are their best threast from behind the arc.
• unc was 5/9 on threes in the second half to put VT away, but missed all 7 first half attempts.  5/16 isn’t that great, or many.  Tech just didn’t take advantage of when unc was cold.  They need to in this game… and hope unc doesn’t get that hot (i.e. Will Graves).

BORING FACTS ABOUT unc:

• Founded in 1789
• Undergrads: 18k
• Postgrads: 8k
• Stayed open during the Civil War
• The Hokies own Franklin Street during football season!
• Mascot is a live ram named “Rameses”
• 37 NCAA Championships in six different team sports (20 are women’s soccer… yawn)
• 5 Men’s bball titles: 1957, 1982, 1993, 2005, 2009

Famous students:

• Bball: Michael Jordan, Vince Carter, Awtawn Jamison, Rasheed Wallace, Jerry Stackhouse, James Worthy, Larry Brown, Tyler Hansbrough, Ronald Curry
• Other Sports: Lawrence Taylor (guessing he didn’t graduate), Dre Bly, Ronald Curry again (did you know he was the #1 football and bball recruit back in the late ’90s at Hampton HS?  Check out his stats/their margins of victory some time – insane), Moonlight Graham, Mia Hamm, Julius Peppers, Marion Jones, B.J. Surhoff
• Jim Halpert (character on the Office) supposedly went there – not the real one, the real person went to one of our early opponents – Brown
• Others: John Edwards, James K. Polk (11th President of the USA), Stuart Scott, Chris Matthews, Andy Griffith, Lewis Black, Thomas Wolfe,

Popularity: 21% [?]

Don’t forget to come to the Clarendon Hard Times to watch the game and enjoy free bar nachos (with $10 purchase)!

THE SETUP:

Let’s hope there isn’t a hangover from Thursday’s big win!  A win here would give the Hokies their second ACC road win and put Tech in prime position to finish 8-8 or better in the conference and get a NCAA bid.

The c-a-n-e-s canes blew into Blacksburg with hurricane-like force on January 13th.  The u stood at 15-1.  Two and a half weeks later the canes are wheezing worse than someone having an asthma attack, having lost four games in a row, including an 81-66 loss to the Hokies:

• Recap
• Game Film

The Hokies led by as many as 35 in the first half that game, taking the canes behind the woodshed early.  The key for the Hokies was hot three-point shooting.  Tech hit 7 of 9 from deep in the first half.  The Hokies shot 62% from the field as a whole (18/29).  miami did get within 15 somewhat early in the second half, but Tech kept the canes at arm’s length the rest of the contest.  Tech shot just 29% (7/24) and were 0/7 on threes in yet another example of a poor second half for the Hokies.  Luckily, it didn’t matter since VT led by 27 at the half.

Since then, it hasn’t been much better.  The canes lost by 18 at uva, by 4 at home to bc (the eagles swept them), and by 22 at maryland.  In all three road contests (including the VT game), they trailed by at least 20 at some point, and by at least 34 in the VT and terps games.  In the bc game, the u blew a 17 point second half lead.  Needless to say, they are reeling.

Here’s all you have to know how bad the canes have played in the ACC – they are last in the ACC in scoring (in conference games) at 64 ppg and second to last in scoring defense at 73.8 ppg.  That’s how you get to be 1-5 and in last.

That said, home teams are 25-10 in league action, so any win on the road is a blessing.  The canes are 1-1 at home, beating the now surging wake forest demon deacons and losing to the bc eagles.  Don’t expect this to just be a cake-walk for the Hokies.

Keys to Winning:

Quick Start: Expect one of two things from the canes on Sunday: A) Head Coach Frank Haith has lit a fire in them all week in practice and they will come out and play inspired ball, or B) they will come out flat and uninterested as they did Tuesday.  Even if they do come out fired up, if the Hokies can build an early lead as they have in most of their ACC contests, expect miami to lay down and not put up much of a fight the rest of the way.

Going Deep: miami leads the ACC in threes per game, hitting 8.1.  They did make 6 against Tech the first time… but on 27 attempts.  The canes were just 2/10 at the half.  If Tech can take this part of their game away again, it will really limit the offensively challenged canes.  But teams do shoot better at home.  On offense, we can’t expect the Hokies to hit 7 of 9 first half threes again.  Hopefully they can hit open looks though over the course of the game.

DC vs JA: Dwayne Collins has gone just 2/10 and averaged just 6.5 ppg in the last two meetings with VT.  He had 23 points on 7/10 shooting in the OT loss in miami last year.  Will that Collins show up or the more recent one?  He was benched for the start of the maryland game this week but did play with some fire towards the end of the game (after they were down 30).  We’ll see if Collins shows that early in this game.  Jeff Allen has averaged over 13 ppg in the last three meetings against the canes.  He had 14 against the canes in Blacksburg.  Tech needs him to have a big game, especially since you can’t count on a hot three-point effort again and because miami doesn’t have anyone that can stop him inside.

STARTERS/KEY RESERVES:

Since the two teams played just 2 1/2 weeks ago, here’s the link to the preview from then if you would like more on the canes and for my interview with our canes buddy, Kartik Krishnaiyer:

• Preview | #23 miami (1-1 | 15-1) @ VT (0-1 | 12-2)
• The Opposing View | It’s All About The ‘u’

Popularity: 29% [?]

THE SETUP:

Hearts will be heavy as the Hokies and the hoos do battle on Thursday.  Tomorrow will be tough to deal with for many people with the news that the body found on Tuesday near Charlottesville was that of 20-year-old Morgan Harrington, a Virginia Tech student that went missing after attending a Metallica concert at John Paul Jones Arena, the place where Thursday’s game will be played.  In many ways, it is too soon, but perhaps while the game is going on it can be a temporary distraction for the fans of both schools.  For me, personally, the harsh reality of it all won’t be lost on me as I walk into JPJ to cheer on my Hokies.

That said, this is a big game for both teams, especially the Hokies.  Tech is going to have to steal two road games in my estimation to get to 8-8 in conference and likely earn a NCAA Tournament bid.  While uva is sitting at 3-1, they are one of the weaker teams in the league in my opinion.  This is the first of four road games VT has against the teams picked 9-12 in the conference before the season (uva, miami, bc, and nc state).  If they are going to win two road games, it likely has to come from those four as opposed to at duke or georgia tech, the other remaining road games.

For uva, a win would match their ACC win total from last year at four.  It would also put them back in first place in the ACC, tied with maryland at 4-1.

SERIES:

• All time: uva 79-50
• At uva: uva 31-11
• In ACC play: uva 6-5

Winning at uva has not been a common occurrence for the Hokies.  Tech has won just once at uva since 1968.  That stat is a tad misleading, though, since the teams played at neutral sites (mostly Roanoke and Richmond) from 1977-2000.  But they are just 1-10 over that stretch, still pretty rough.

Tech did defeat the wahoos at uva two years ago, 70-69 in overtime on a Deron Washington acrobatic layup at the buzzer.  Check it out!

The two teams split last year with Tech controlling the game in Blacksburg until the hoos made it close with a furious late rally and uva winning in Ch-ville (the Hokies didn’t have a suspended Jeff Allen for that game): at VT 78, uva 75 – Recap and at uva 75, VT 61

THE OPPONENT:

While the hoos certainly aren’t the most talented team in the league, they did return almost their entire squad from a year ago.  And they got rid of Head Coach Dave Leitao in favor of defensive specialist Tony Bennett.  Only Mamadi Diane, a mercurial role player who graduated, and Jamil Tucker, another role player who was dismissed from the team a month ago, are gone.   Back are leading scorer and reigning ACC Rookie of the Year, Sylven Landesberg, and big man Mike Scott.

Landesberg still is not a three-point threat.  He hit just 16 last year and has made 9 to date this season.  Sylven earns his points off the dribble.  He is tremendous at penetrating, drawing contact, and finishing (the Hokies could really use that latter).  Landesberg hit close to 150 free throws last year and has hit 83 of his 100 FTs this year, so he is deadly from the line.  Sylven is averaging 17.5 ppg, just up from last year.  His scoring in ACC play has been much better than it was last year when teams really focused on shutting him down.  Tech has to cut him off and not allow to get anywhere near the rim, especially in transition.  Help defense will be key.

uva’s other main threat on offense is 6′8″ junior Mike Scott.  Scott is a bit of an enigma – some nights he can dominate, others he is invisible.  Heck, he can be that way in the same game.  He’ll get two dunks and drain a fall-away, then not do a thing for 15 minutes.  He has been on a tear though.  Mike had reached double digits in eight straight games before wake held him to 6 points on Saturday.  He was just 3/10 from the floor.  He is averaging just under 13 ppg and 7.2 rebounds per game (the latter leads uva).  Scott does not get to the line very much, he has just 31 attempts on the season.  That tells you he isn’t going hard at the rack when covered.  His game is open midrange jumpers or fall-aways, or wide open putbacks or dunks.  Tech does have to respect his jumper from about 16-feet in and must get a body on him on the glass.

One of the big keys for the hoos has been the play of sophomore point guard Sammy Zeglinski.  The Chicago auto part king has upped his average from 7.8 ppg to 10.1 ppg.  Not a huge jump, but the key has been shot selection.  Sammy shot just 31% on threes last year but is hitting 47% this season.  He hit at least two 3s in 11 straight games before wake held him scoreless from the field, limiting him to 1 point.  Sammy will not force threes, he looks for open looks.  Play out on him and force him to pass or drive.  If he drives, he is looking to dish to Landesberg or Scott so be ready to release and help rotate.

Jontel Evans, a freshman, also starts and is a defensive specialist.  The hoos will play three guards most of the game.

Mustapha Farrakhan and Jeff Jones have both improved this year, too, averaging just over 7 ppg each.  Both are shooting over 40% on threes to match Zeglinski.

The cavs will try and burn the Hokies with threes on offense.  uva is 11th in the league in FG% (VT is last) at 45% but  1st in the league in 3-Point FG% at 40%.  In other words, they shoot almost as well from behind the arc as inside.  uva is third in the league in 3s made per game at 6.3.  While Scott and Landesberg do their damage inside the arc, everyone else is almost exclusively looking to sit behind it.  Tech will have to choose their poison – collapse inside and limit Landesberg and Scott, or assume they will get theirs, make their men play good one-on-one defense, and stay out on the perimeter players to defend the three.  I’m betting it is the former of those two options.  Focus on uva’s strength and just hope they aren’t hot from outside.

The hoos are also second in the league in FT%, mostly due to Landesberg.

Inside the hoos are weak except for Scott.  Jerome Meyinsse has decent size at 6′9″ and Assane Sene is 7′, but neither is a scorer.  They combine for 7 ppg and 8 rpg in about 30 minutes.  Sene is a good shot blocker though.

SIX PACK OF KEYS TO WINNING:

• Malcolm in the Middle: Delaney has to do a better job of scoring in ways other than on threes and free throws.  He is missing that runner off penetration he’s shot at times in past years, and has had trouble finishing in the lane, too often worried about drawing contact.  He’s also seemed hesitant to drive at times.  Malcolm must be aggressive and try and force things at times, especially with how offensively challenged the team has been lately.  Delaney had 24 in the home win last year but just 11 at uva.
• Revenge of the Big Donut: Jeff Allen had a big donut last year against uva, going 0/7 from the field in the win in Blacksburg and sitting out the game after giving maryland fans the bird a few days before.  I’d like to see him come out and really take it to the hoos in this one.  They don’t have anyone that can really match up with his post skills.  On defense, he will be key to limiting Mike Scott.
• Make Landesberg a long distance call: Don’t let Sylven drive, pure and simple.  When he does, he either finishes, gets fouled, or finishes and gets fouled.  If he does drive, instantly double and either look to draw a charge or cut him off.
• Help Noah: The arc will be key in this game.  If uva’s supporting cast can hit their 6+ threes, VT is in trouble.  You have to stop Sylven and Scott, but that will free up perimeter players.  Everyone must slide and run out to help when uva does kick it out along the perimeter.
• Finish strong: VT has been terrible in ACC play in second halves.  They have scored 36 more points in the first half than the second half on the season (usually teams are the opposite due to late fouls).  Tech must find a way to make adjustments at the half and be able to score for 40 minutes.
• Do it for Morgan: Let’s win this game, and temporarily forget the sadness we feel for a life ended way too soon.

STARTERS:

As you can see, Tech will have some height advantages at guard.  The Hokie perimeter players should be able to shoot over uva with no issue.  And on defense, Bell and Hudson have the size to match up with Landesberg, who usually has a mismatch with his height but won’t here.

SCORING:

Popularity: 28% [?]

THE SETUP:

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but this is the worst team Virginia Tech has played all season.  Thankfully, this will be the last time I say that as the Hokies finish the regular season with 13 conference games, and I’m pretty sure even boston college is better than the north carolina central eagles.  This will be the first ever meeting between the schools.

THE OPPONENT:

I’m going to be honest, I don’t know much about north carolina central.  I know they are in Durham, NC.  I know they played duke in the “Bull City Classic” in football this past year.  And I know the Hokies are a heck of a lot better than this Division I independent (they are scheduled to join the MEAC soon).

Their wins have come against uncw (as in north carolina wesleyan, not wilmington), the cbc (carver bible college, not the British network), temple (as in tennessee-temple), and the apprentice (as in newport news apprentice, not the Donald).  I’m seriously not making any of those schools up.  And they are riding a two game winning streak coming into Blacksburg!

Needless to say, they have not beaten a Division I team this year.  RealTimeRPI has them rated as the #344 team in Division I (that’s out of 347 teams).  Oh, wait, they have umbc, who VT also played, rated #345!  So maybe this isn’t the worst team Tech will play all year.  Hmmm.  Let’s just call it a tie.

The eagles have also played some schools I’ve actually heard of – they lost by 47 to unc (the real unc), 30 to miami (of FL), 13 to jmu, 10 to iowa, and 23 to indiana.

C.J. Wilkerson is nccu’s best player.  The 6′3″ junior guard has reached double digits in all but two games.  He’s scored 53 points in their last two wins.

Vincent Davis (6′2″ guard) and Nick Chasten (6′7″ forward) both average right at 10 ppg.

No one on the eagles is an exceptional three-point shooter.  Everyone is under 40% and they shoot 33% as a team.  Wilkerson, Davis, Michael Glasker, and Dwayne Sims will all pull the trigger but none of them shoot a ton of threes.  Expect the eagles to really struggle to score.  The Hokies held umbc to 34 points, and while that might be a bit much to repeat, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the eagles fail to reach 50.  They average just 62 ppg.  unc and miami held them to 42 and 53 respectively.  They haven’t reached 80 points against a DI team.  In fact, they only reached 70 once and that was the 70 they scored against Isiah Thomas’s fiu team.

SIX PACK OF KEYS TO WINNING:

• At least 5 Hokies show up at Cassell tomorrow night… hmm, maybe we’d only need 4
• ^see above
• ^see above
• ^see above
• ^see above
• The team doesn’t have too much Wild Turkey in the locker room before the game

In all seriousness, this game does have some positives for the Hokies:

• It allows the team to wash the stink off themselves from Saturday night’s offensive showing.
• Tech can get an easy win to build up some confidence before resuming ACC play next Saturday.
• Because this game is Monday, the Hokies still get five days of rest before Saturday’s game (I love the timing of it).
• Tech’s post players can get some much needed confidence.  After the way they’ve struggled against unc and fsu, I’d like to see them come out with fire in their bellies and really take it at the eagles.  We know Delaney and Hudson can score, I want to see more from Allen, Davila, and Thompson, and Raines can get some extended minutes to add experience and work on his post moves which need improvement.
• Malcolm Delaney can get some rest without risk – he is banged up again already this year, with the ankle issue a few weeks ago and I think he tweaked his groin against fsu.  He was clearly in pain the final 8 minutes.
• Tech can add won more victory to their belts and finish 13-1 out of conference.  The Hokies were 9-1 out of conference in 1995-96, their first year in the A-10, and this would be their best finish OOC since.  VT won 14 out of conference games in 1994-95, finishing 14-3 OOC in their last year in the Metro Conference.
• The Hokies can clinch a winning home record for the season and move to 9-0 at the Cassell.

STARTERS:

BORING FACTS ABOUT nccu:

• Started in 1910
• Part of the HBCU – Historically Black Colleges and Universities
• Students: ~8,500
• Started as a private school but now is public
• Location: Durham, NC
• Conference: Join the MEAC on 7/1/10

Famous Alums:

• Herman Boone – the former T.C. Williams football coach who Remember the Titans was based on
• Sam Jones – NBA Hall of Famer played 1957-69 for the Boston Celtics
• Ivan Dixon – Hogan’s Heroes
• Maynard Jackson – First African-American Mayor of Atlanta whom the Airport is named for

Popularity: 17% [?]

THE SETUP:

fsu is favored by 5 points (again, home court advantage is huge in this league).

The Hokies travel down to Tallahassee, hoping to steal an ACC road win against the #25 florida state seminoles. But getting road wins in this league is a lot like watching Mike “The Situation” from Jersey Shore try and seal the deal with some shore skank – just when you think he’s got her, something pops up and ruins it – whether it be J-Woww getting sick or Snooki player-hating you or your team goes ice cold and can’t hit a shot or Toney Douglas makes a big play. Just go with it…

That said, the Hokies are facing the noles at a very opportune time. The noles are leaking oil badly, having lost two straight ACC games to maryland and lowly nc state at home earlier this week. But winning on the road in this league is not easy, especially this year. Home teams are 13-3 in league play to date. unc and duke are 0-2 combined on the road. fsu won on the road at georgia tech back in December but have also lost at home to the pack as mentioned.

Here is a look back at The Weekend Warrior’s trip to Tallahassee over a year ago - TWW: Tallahassee or Bust

THE SERIES:

• VT is just 2-5 against the noles since entering the league, including 0-4 in Tallahassee.
• Speaking of 0-4, why is this Tech’s 5th time playing at fsu in the ACC when the noles have come to B’Burg just three times?
• The old Metro Conference rivals have played 41 times total with fsu holding a 24-17 edge.
• Tech’s last win in Tallahassee was in 1990 and they have lost six straight at fsu.
• fsu is one of only two teams the Hokies haven’t beaten on the road since joining the ACC (along with nc state, of course).
• fsu swept the Hokies last year, winning on a late shot by now-NBA guard Toney Douglas in Blacksburg and winning by 10 at fsu to close the regular season.
• This is the only meeting in the regular season between the two teams.
• VT beat fsu to win the 1979 Metro Conference Tournament Championship, VT’s only ever conference title

THE OPPONENT:

For some reason I was buying into florida state earlier, thinking they were one of the better teams in the ACC. I know there have only been three ACC games, but I’m pretty sure I was wrong. This team has no offense to speak of. Sure they are #46 in the nation in Effective Field Goal Percentage at 53.2% and are #21 in the nation in Offensive Rebound Percentage at 39.3%.

The noles played very good defense and are ranked #2 in the nation in Defensive Effective Field Goal Percentage (the FG% of their opponent with a bonus for three-pointers made). They are holding teams to a 41% eFG% on defense – teams shoot just 35% from the floor against fsu and 31% on threes. fsu is allowing just 59.9 ppg, second in the ACC. But maryland and nc state were able to kill the noles from long range – the terps were 10 of 16 on threes and nc state was 11 of 23. That is 54% combined! nc state freshman Scott Wood more than doubled his previous career high, hitting 7 of 11 threes and going for 31 points against fsu on Tuesday.

Part of the reason for the collapse defensively against maryland was their star, 7′1″ Solomon Alabi, was on the bench most of the first half with foul trouble. He is a real presence inside and allows their perimeter players to stay outside, knowing he can erase any guys that slip inside. But the fsu guards are not tremendously quick and have not been good about rotating to pick up open players along the arc. Deividas Dulkys and Derwin Kitchen are not great athletes and there is a big drop-off having them defending outside as opposed to Toney Douglas, who was the ACC Defensive Player of the Year last year. Michael Snaer is a good athlete, but is a freshman, so he’ll get lost at times, too.

Even the noles’ rebounding has tailed off in the last two games. nc state outrebounded fsu 32-25 and had a better Offensive Rebounding Percentage. The terps and noles both had 33 rebounds last Sunday, but again, the terps won the Offensive Rebounding battle. For a team that has a 7′1″ center (Alabi), a 6′11″ man off the bench (Xavier Gibson), and an extremely athletic wing in 6′9″ Chris Singleton, they have to dominate on the boards to win.

While I said their offense is poo-poo, and it is, Alabi is impossible to stop when he gets the ball near the hoop. Tech cannot afford to let him catch the ball on the low block or in the paint. Singleton can create points for himself and is a tough match-up at 6′9″, but he’ll fall in love with outside shots at times. He’s improved to 37% from behind the arc, but you’d rather have him settling out there. Deividas Dulkys has been deadly on threes shooting 46%. Tech must get out on him. The Hokies don’t have to respect his ability to drive, because he doesn’t. Dulkys has a quick release and a hair-trigger, so any crack and he’ll pull. But this team really missed Toney Douglas, who was the only nole to average double-digits last year. They have yet to find a go-to guy this year.

SIX PACK OF KEYS TO WINNING:

• Go Deep: If Alabi is in the game, it is tough to score inside and fsu is #1 in the league in blocks. And we saw how Allen disappeared last Sunday against the big’uns unc had inside. Let’s hope the Hokies are hot from behind the arc. Tech was 7 of 9 on threes in the first half against miami, but 0 for 7 in the second half. Terrell Bell was 3 of 3 (he’s money from the corners!). Hope that the Hokies can find their touch from the first half and repeat what the terps and pack did to fsu.
• Windex: The Hokies must be all over the glass, especially on the defensive end. They cannot miss opportunities at stops by allowing fsu to get second chances. While the noles are good at offensive rebounding, they are just 10th in the league in Defensive Rebounding Percentage. Tech needs to at least match the noles in second chances on the boards. A guy like JT Thompson could be huge on both ends here.
• 40 Minutes (or at least 35): Tech has been a 20 minute team the last two games, playing two great first halves and two lousy second halves. To win on the road in this league you need to keep it up and be a 40 minute man (team).
• When in doubt, foul: fsu is 11th in the league in Free Throw Percentage at 64.6%. They do not shoot well at all. Believe it or not, Alabi is the best foul shooter at over 80% but Chris Singleton is barely above 50%. Foul him instead of letting him get a crowd-insighting dunk.
• Selectively Attack: Alabi and Singleton are going to get their blocks, they average over 4 per game combined. But if VT can somehow get them in foul trouble, they are a very different team with them out. Flop when they come at you on defense, and go at the rim hard when you have an opening and hope the refs haven’t swallowed their peas.
• No Transition Points: Blocks can lead to run-outs. The way this team struggles to score in the half court, do not let them get any fast break points. Turn them into a half court team and it is a big advantage for VT (on defense, at least). On offense, the Hokies do have to find chances to run and score in transition before the bigs can set up inside.

STARTERS:

BORING FACTS ABOUT fsu:

• f-l-o-r-i-d-a s-t-a-t-e! florida state, florida state, florida state… WOOOOO! [Sorry, but guys should not be yelling 'Woooo' at the end of your school cheer]
• Established in 1851
• Was an all women’s school from 1906 to 1947 when it became coed. Lee Corso (ESPN Gameday personality) joked that when he went on his recruiting visit to the florida gators, he barely saw any women, but when he went to fsu, he barely saw any men… he went to fsu.
• Burt Reynolds went to fsu.
• Ted Bundy killed two fsu Chi Omegas during his serial killing spree back in the late ’70s.
• fsu has 2 titles in football (as Hokies know all too well) and 3 title game appearances in the College World Series, but lost all 3.
• The noles made the NCAA Tournament for the first time this decade last year, losing in the first round.

Popularity: 22% [?]

THE SETUP:

Hokies are favored by 3.

The AP #23 miami hurricanes, ranked for the first time all season, blow into Blacksburg for a Wednesday night ACC tilt.  This is an immensely important game for the Hokies.  After losing on the road at Chapel Hill, certainly something there is no shame in (or anywhere else on the road in the ACC), the Hokies must guard their Cassell.  Tech cannot afford to limp out of the starting blocks at 0-2, especially with a tough road game in Tallahassee looming on Saturday against the noles.

Look for the Hokies to come out and play inspired, intense basketball Wednesday.  They know they were in that game at unc Sunday, leading for most of the first 25 minutes and within 5 with 6 minutes to go.  Tech played hard and needs similar focus against the rival canes.  Even though the students are on break, VT needs a fired up crowd, too, to push them on.

SERIES: 8-8 (Tech is 7-2 against the canes since the teams joined the ACC, VT was just 1-6 in Big East play versus miami)

SIX PACK OF KEYS TO WINNING:

• Defend the Perimeter: The canes love to bomb from deep.  villanova transfer Malcolm Grant, senior James Dews, and wing-man Adrian Thomas all shoot around 45% from deep.  The canes are #3 in the ACC, hitting 40% of their threes, and are #1 in threes made by far with 140 (Tech has only made 65).  The canes are not a great team at penetrating, so Tech must get out on their man and get hands in the faces of the shooters.  And Grant will shoot from very deep.  Don’t expect much of the 2-3 zone against the canes with their outside shooting.
• Delaney: Malcolm was not able to back-peddle much at all on Sunday and it hurt the Hokies defensively.  Luckily, since the canes are not nearly as adept at penetrating as the heels, this shouldn’t be as much of a factor.  But Tech’s interior defenders much recognize this issue and help as guys do drive, especially Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant.  That will mean the rest of the defense, including Delaney, need to look to rotate and help against Collins in the low post, or three-point shooters sliding along the perimeter.
• Donuts Back in Stock: The Big Donut, Jeff Allen, scored a donut in the second half against the heels Sunday and was all but invisible.  He was working hard on offense and at times was flashing hard for the ball in the post, but simply didn’t do enough.  He must be a factor – every night – no matter what the size or talent of the other team.  Expect Seth to light a fire under him this week and hopefully Allen will respond with a big game.  Jeff is now third on the team in scoring – the same place he finished up his first two years at VT.  There is no way you can convince me he is the third best player, especially on offense, on this team – this year or in the past.  Now is the time for him to show he’s a star, a Trevor Booker-type player.  His defense will also be key against Dwayne Collins, a fellow enigma.
• In the Zo-ne: Dorenzo Hudson has hit double digits in six of his last seven games, attacking the hoop and either scoring in transition or getting to the foul line.  Even Sunday he was a solid 7 of 16 on two-point shots, but the 0 for 6 from behind the arc really drags things down.  And he’s just 7 of 29 on threes over that seven game stretch, under 25%.  He needs to establish his game inside the arc first, and with some confidence, then try a heat-check three to see if it goes in.  If not, abandon ship and stick with the drive.
• Wet Willie’s: In honor of the canes coming to town, make yourself a frozen drink with grain in it, similar to what they serve in South Beach at Wet Willie’s.  If you don’t have a Slurpee-making machine like me, just go pick one up at 7-11 and add some vodka or Everclear or whatever else floats your boat.  Sure, it will be extremely cold Wednesday, but let’s just pretend we are on South Beach for a fleeting moment.
• Hunger: Tech needs to win this game, and even though the bright lights of FSN Sunday Night Hoops won’t be on Wednesday (in fact, the game isn’t on TV at all), and they aren’t in Chapel Hill playing the heels, and the students are on break, the Hokies need to realize this is a big ACC game, not umbc or longwood.  Same intensity for 16 games, 4 minutes at a time, for 40 minutes.  That’s what Greenberg preaches and that’s what Tech needs.  This canes team is on par with the Hokies, but you must win at home and Tech must come out and give their best to win.

THE u:

The canes are coming off a nice 67-66 win over wake in Coral Gables on Saturday.  I watched that game and was impressed with the u.  I had figured there were be a big drop-off with star Jack McClinton gone from last year, but the new guards, Malcolm Grant and 4-star recruit Durand Scott are both playing well, complimenting senior James Dews in the backcourt.

In the front court, senior Dwayne Collins is back.  He is a poor man’s Trevor Booker – has the size and talent to dominate but doesn’t show up every night.  But he is averaging 13 ppg and over 8.5 rpg.  Dwayne looked fantastic against the mammoth wake lineup, scoring 23 points on 9/12 shooting and grabbing 11 rebounds for his fifth double-double of the season.  Collins had 23 points in the VT @ miami regular season match-up last year, but the Hokies made him a non-factor in Atlanta in the ACC Tournament, limiting him to 4 points.  That, right there, is the story of Collins’s career – there some nights, no where to be found other nights (similar to Jeff Allen).

The rest of the low post players for the u are just role players: Reggie Johnson has “slimmed down” to 295 pounds but is just a space-eater, Cyrus McGowan and Julian Gamble are just minutes-eaters inside, DeQuan Jones was a big recruit but doesn’t seem to have much game, and Adrian Thomas is exclusively a three-point bomber on the wing (81 of his 93 shots have been threes).

On offense, the canes want to bomb from deep.  Three of their top five scorers shoot more threes than two (Dews, Grant, and Thomas) and all are very good shooters hitting around 45% of their threes each.  That is fantastic and is the reason why they are 8th in the country in Effective Field Goal Percentage at 56.4%.  Their free throw shooting is not great, in fact terrible, coming in at dead last in the ACC (yes, even worse than clemson).  Foul them inside the arc over giving up an easy shot.

Thomas will only shoot from deep and Tech does not have to respect his drive, but he tends to drift and get lost on offense until someone finds him spotting up.  The Hokies will have to stay on him, and if they leave him, rotate to get a hand in his face.  Grant likes to shoot the LONG threes, much like McClinton used to.  Dews also is solid from behind the arc.

In summary, this team misses the swagger and clutch shooting of McClinton, but they seem to be a better defensive team with him gone (much like the Hokies not having Vassallo anymore).  This game will be a slugfest.  Let’s just hope it ends up like the football game this past September, minus the monsoon.

For more on the canes, check our Kartik Krishnaiyer’s thoughts in our Opposing View – miami column.

SUMMARY:

Expect this game to be in the 60s.  miami needs to hit a lot of threes to win and/or have a big game from Dwayne Collins.  Tech must find ways to get points in transition like they did in the first half against unc.  This can come via live ball turnovers, or getting the ball up quickly after securing defensive rebounds.  The Hokies don’t want to have to work all game in the half court, as the canes have an advantage in that scenario due to their solid outside shooting.  Whomever can better asert their offensive key (threes for the canes, transition points for VT) will likely win, as both teams play good half court defense.

STARTERS/KEY RESERVES:

PLAYER STATS:

TEAM STATS:

BORING FACTS ABOUT the u:

• Founded in 1925
• Type: Private
• Undergrads: 9.8k
• They have more out of state students than Floridians
• Mascot: Sebastian the Ibis
• Inventions: Swagger
• 5 time national champs in football
• Former VT coaching great, Bill Foster, resurrected their basketball program in the 1980s before he came to VT

Popularity: 18% [?]

Update: According to the Roanoke Times, Delaney had some limited action on Friday but did not practice.  For unc, Ginyard is out and Graves and McDonald (all 3 are guards) are questionable for tonight, all with ankle injuries.  You have to think Malcolm is very questionable, and while the unc injuries could level the playing field, it is still a huge blow to the Hokies’ chances.

NOVA Hokies – please come to our Viewing Party at the Clarendon Hard Times Cafe to watch the game – Featuring half price wings and a 22 oz. Beer Mug Special – first one is $3 then $1.50 refills starting at 7:45 PM.

THE SETUP:

Remember that kid in elementary school, the one that took your lunch money every day?   Remember that bully, that king of the mountain, that beat you up every time you went outside for recess?   Your remember that ugly red-head from A Christmas Story that beats up on Ralph all the time?  Yeah, well, that’s unc.  At least in basketball it is.  Virginia Tech is just 12-59 all time against the tar holes, and just 2-22 since 1967 versus them.

Well, you know what?  The ugly red-head is a bit vulnerable this year.  And we’ve been working out on the Chuck Norris Total Gym, and by-golly, if we aren’t in the best shape we’ve been in for 14 years.  The Hokies are 12-1 and headed to Chapel Hill against a powder blue team that just lost to college o’ charleston without two of their few guards.

This game could be decided by ankles: the ankles of the ACC’s leading scorer, Virginia Tech’s Malcolm Delaney, and unc’s Will Graves and Marcus Ginyard.  All are backcourt players and all missed their team’s last game.  Delaney has missed the better part of two games, Ginyard has missed three, and Graves one.  All were “questionable” for Sunday as of Monday.  Greenberg was hoping Delaney could be back playing defense by this point in the week and Roy Williams on Monday said neither would have played, even if the VT game was that night instead of this weekend.  He was hopeful to have one of them back and wasn’t sure which it would be.  The team that is missing any of these guys will have a greatly reduced backcourt in terms of depth for Sunday Night Hoops.

While the Hokies need Delaney more than unc needs Ginyard or Graves, Tech has to have confidence coming off their OT win over seton hall without him.  In fact, the Hokies have produced two of the last four ACC Players of the Week and neither of them have been named Malcolm Delaney.  Jeff Allen won it a month ago and Dorenzo Hudson, fresh off his 41 point game against seton hall, won it last week.  That is diversity and that is VT basketball right now.  That said, the Hokies need Delaney’s ballhandling skills (and scoring) to win this game.

The junior Hokies also have to have confidence against the tar heels.  These are no longer the baby Hokies of two years ago that went down to Chapel Hill and got absolutely woodshedded by the heels 92-53 in maybe VT’s worst game of the Seth Greenberg era.  Since then, Tech has played the heels tough three times in a row:

• a 68-66 loss to #1 unc in the 2008 ACC Semis on a Tyler Hansbrough put-back with less than 2 seconds left
• an 86-78 loss in the Cassell last regular season to #2 unc in a game that was tied with under 10 to play
• a 79-76 loss to #1 unc in the 2009 ACC Quarters that VT led with under a minute to play, fell behind on a Tyler Hansbrough layup, and then couldn’t convert on two late possessions (including a questionable no call on a JT Thompson turnover)

So don’t expect the Hokie upperclassmen to be in awe of the Dean Dome.  In fact, expect them to have a chip on their shoulder for their 39 point drubbing just two years ago.  You know Seth is reminding the guys of that this week, and his teams have always responded well to these situations.

THE OPPONENT:

Down Low: The heels are as talented as ever in the low post, in fact, they may have the best collection of painters in the country.  Mechanicsville, VA product Ed Davis has really developed into a star this year.  He is 11th in the conference in scoring at 15.2 ppg and 2nd in rebounding at 10.2.

Deon Thompson has also stepped up his game to fill the void left by Tyler Hansbrough (yes, he is really gone, I promise).  Thompson is 8th in the ACC in scoring at 15.9 ppg and 13th in rebounds at 7.4.  That’s a nice little 31 ppg and 18 rpg combined.

If that wasn’t enough, they have 7′ Tyler Zeller coming off the bench to provide 10.1 ppg and 4.4 rpg in just 16 minutes per game!  The heels also have 5-star freshman recruit John Henson, who is 6′10″.  He has not shown his potential yet and gets just limited minutes, but would likely be a star anywhere else.  Mix in the 6′10″ Wear twins, who play about 20 mpg and score 6 ppg combined, bake at 375 for 40 minutes, and you have a heck of a low post casserole for the heels.

Perimeter: This is the unc’s Achilles heel (yes, I’ve been waiting all offseason to use that).  They lost Ty Lawson, Danny Green, and Wayne Ellington from last year (and to a lesser extent, even Bobby Frasor is gone). So Larry Drew II is the starter at point guard, after playing less than 10 mpg and averaging less than 2 ppg last year.  He is doing OK with 8.4 ppg and 6.2 assists per game (unc assist stats are always inflated due to the number of points they score and the bigs they have inside you can feed the rock to).  But he commits over 3 turnovers per game.  Drew does hit 44% from three-point land.

Defensive stopper and Virginian Marcus Ginyard is back for his redshirt-senior year.  He has greatly improved his offensive game, scoring 11 ppg and distributing 4.3 apg, to go with 1.7 steals per game.  But he has missed the last three games with an ankle injury as I mentioned above and his status for Sunday is uncertain.

Will Graves has become a deadly three point shooter on the wing and presents mismatches at 6′6″.  But he also is battling an ankle injury.  Ginyard and Graves are a combined 37 of 88 from behind the arc (42%), so if they are out, that is a huge hit to unc’s outside shooting.

If Graves and Ginyard cannot go, stud frosh recruit Dexter Strickland will step in.  He was just 2 of 11 against charleston, though.  Fellow freshman Leslie McDonald will also see minutes, but both these guys are inexperienced, similar to Erick Green of the Hokies.

This backcourt gets a lot of open looks from deep as teams compact their defensive to help out inside.  The unc guards must exploit that to be successful.  Against charleston they hit just 1 of 6 threes without Ginyard or Graves, and that three came in overtime.

Offense:

As usual the tar heels can score.  They love to get out and run, though like I said, Drew isn’t the Ferrari Ty Lawson was.  The heels are #1 in the ACC at 85.3 ppg.  unc is #4 in the league in three-point percentage at 38.5%, but just 10th in makes.  In other words, their game is to either penetrate and dish, or feed it inside to the bigs.  unc does commit a lot of turnovers and that has been a problem.  They give it up as much as one of Tiger’s call girls, committing over 16 turnovers per game, third most in the ACC.  As usual, they get to the line a lot, with 384 free throw attempts, tops in the league.

Defense:

The heels are last in the ACC by far, giving up 72.9 ppg (the next closest is at 65).  They can be beat in transition, but that can be a bad thing, too, if you get sucked into their up-tempo game. And despite their size, the heels are just 9th in the ACC in defensive rebounding percentage.  Opponents are getting the offensive rebound on 33% of their misses.  That means the young heels are not boxing out well and perhaps are not hustling after 50/50 balls.

Summary:

This is not the unc team that won the national title last year.  Their top four scorers, who combined for 66 ppg, are gone.  Only Thompson and Ginyard have much playing experience on this team (both are seniors) and Ginyard redshirted last year due to injuries.  If he doesn’t play, they are very inexperienced, and that can be exploited by a Hokie team that now is one of the more veteran teams in the league.

SIX PACK OF KEYS TO A HOKIE VICTORY:

• Rebound: unc is #2 in the ACC in offensive rebounding percentage.  Tech must limit their second chances, something that has been an issue in past match-ups.  Plus, VT must scrap and claw on the offensive glass to get themselves additional scoring opportunities.
• Allen: unc can throw big men at you as if they had a big man Pez dispenser.  The Hokies cannot.  If Jeff Allen gets in early foul trouble, this could be a long night.  He must use his four fouls wisely.  Be aggressive, but selectively and intelligently.
• Handle: Not talking whiskey here (for once), I’m talking the point guard position.  Can Malcolm Delaney play and play well?  If so, no worries here.  But Erick Green looked raw running the offense against seton hall and Zo Hudson is not a point guard.  Tech badly needs Delaney or this will be a big issue.  The point guard for VT also needs to help keep the tempo down.  Tech wants this game to be in the 60s or 70s, not the 80s where unc wants it.  Tech gives up just 60 ppg, compared to the 85 the heels average.  Point guard play is key to that.
• Opening Night Jitters: Tech has not faired well in ACC openers.  They lost by 25 at duke last year, lost at wake two years ago, beat wake to open in 2006-07 (with a veteran team), lost on that 40-footer to duke in 2005-06, and got blown out by unc 34 points in the Cassell in VT’s ACC debut in 2004-05.   But this is now an experienced group, I expect them to be ready for unc and not be intimidated.
• Believe: Tech almost beat the heels in the last two ACC Tournaments.  Tech is 12-1.  The Hokies have won in Chapel Hill before (those Lewis Witcher is the only guy left from the team that did it three years ago).  Tech is poised to get a marque win.  This could really springboard the whole rest of the season with a win over a top 10 team.  You can do it!
• Handle Part 2: If Malcolm Delaney isn’t playing, you might want a handle of bourbon for this game.  Just kidding, the guys will be ready to play and ready to give it all regardless… but you might want to have some WT nearby.

STARTERS:

BORING FACTS ABOUT unc:

• Founded in 1789
• Undergrads: 18k
• Postgrads: 8k
• Stayed open during the Civil War
• The Hokies own Franklin Street during football season!
• Mascot is a live ram named “Rameses”
• 37 NCAA Championships in six different team sports (20 are women’s soccer… yawn)
• 5 Men’s bball titles: 1957, 1982, 1993, 2005, 2009

Famous students:

• Bball: Michael Jordan, Vince Carter, Awtawn Jamison, Rasheed Wallace, Jerry Stackhouse, James Worthy, Larry Brown, Tyler Hansbrough, Ronald Curry
• Other Sports: Lawrence Taylor (guessing he didn’t graduate), Dre Bly, Ronald Curry again (did you know he was the #1 football and bball recruit back in the late ’90s at Hampton HS?  Check out his stats/their margins of victory some time – insane), Moonlight Graham, Mia Hamm, Julius Peppers, Marion Jones, B.J. Surhoff
• Jim Halpert (character on the Office) supposedly went there – not the real one, the real person went to one of our early opponents – Brown
• Others: John Edwards, James K. Polk (11th President of the USA), Stuart Scott, Chris Matthews, Andy Griffith, Lewis Black, Thomas Wolfe,

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