Spread: VT by 16.5.

The Hokies take on the eagles of georgia southern on Saturday at the Cassell in the second meaningless installment of the Continental Tire Las Vegas Classic. Why is it meaningless? Because win or lose, the Hokies advance to the semi-finals on Saturday, Dec. 22, in Vegas, baby. While the eagles will keep playing consolation games. Either way, don’t worry, Tech will win this game (or I’ll donate money to some ‘save the eagles’ fund).

georgia southern is better known for the football program, and with good reason. While they stink in basketball, they have captured six NCAA I-AA (FCS) Championships since starting their program in 1982. Our old buddy Paul “chop block” Johnson won back-to-back titles there in ’99 and ’00. And the eagles knocked off odu on the road last weekend to advance to the I-AA semi-finals last week (don’t expect eagle fans to have a lot of interest in this game).

The eagles are just 1-5 on the year against D1 teams, with the lone win over kennesaw state, who just moved up to D1 in 2009. They lost to powerhouses like elon and samford. They do not play a fast pace. They will try their best to keep this a low scoring, half-court game.

The eagles do have some length at court, surprising for a low tier team, with their three starting guards in the 6-2 to 6-5 range. But no one over 6-7 plays more than 10 minutes. That said, we’ve seen the Hokies struggle on the glass with similarly small teams, so we’ll see what happens. A good goal would be to keep gsu’s offensive rebounding percentage under 30%, and have VT’s around 40%.

gsu’s star is junior forward Eric Ferguson. He was first team All-Southern Conference last year and leads the eagles in almost every statistical category. He also turns it over a lot, as do the eagles (15 turnovers per game). So, Tech should have some opportunities to turn those TOs into fast break BRRRAHHHHs.

Reed and Roberts both are good 3-point shooters on perimeter (50%).

But, this game really is just a tune-up for the Hokies before they head to Vegas for back-to-back games next weekend, starting with a game against a solid bradley team.

On Monday the Hokies will try and get that bad taste out of their mouths after their dramatic last second loss in Morgan-hole Saturday. The victim will be mississippi valley state, Jerry Rice’s alma mater. FYI: their nickname is the delta devils.

This game had better be a Bear Fight (Jon King style). mvsu, a member of the SWAC, is 0-5 on the year and they’ve lost by an average of 29 ppg. uva just pounded mvsu by 28. Four teams in the SWAC are winless and two others have eight losses.

mvsu is… Well… They’re not good. They are 338th in the nation in ppg and dead last in FG% at 31%. This game should be over at halftime. Davon Usher, a 6-6 guard from Baltimore, averages more than 19 ppg for them but no one else is near double digits.

This game is the opener of the Continental Tire Las Vegas Classic. The Hokies play at home Monday and Saturday vs georgia southern, then regardless of the outcomes in those two games (both will be VT wins), the Hokies advance to the semi-finals in Vegas baby on Dec. 22.

Erick Green will look to tie Bimbo Coles’s VT record of nine straight 20+ point games to open a season on Monday.

Spread: wvu by 7.5.

The last time these two teams met on the court both teams were still in the Big East. Now neither one is, with Tech in the ACC and the ‘neers in the Big 12. And while the Hokies haven’t enjoyed much success against wvu (29-46 all time), especially in Morgan-hole (10-25), the Hokies did sweep the ‘neers back in 2004 including a 69-67 win at wvu in Greenberg’s first year.

Erick Green has moved up to second in the nation in scoring at 24.9 ppg. He is just two behind Bimbo Coles’s Tech record streak of nine 20+ point games to start the season. Green will need a big game against wvu to help Tech stay unbeaten.

This is not the most talented wvu team we’ve seen, especially under Coach “Huggy Bear” Huggins, a wvu ‘grad’. There are no Jerry Wests or Piss-knuckles on this team. The ‘neers did go to the Big Dance last year, losing in the 2nd (1st) Round to gonzaga. Gone from that team are their two leading scorers – Kevin Jones (neither the one that was a RB for VT nor the reporter with terrible conference realignment sources) and Darry Bryant. Those two averaged almost 37 ppg and Jones averaged 11 rebounds.

This wvu team features no one averaging even half of what Erick Green scores per game — Staten at 11.0, Murray at 9.7, Browne at 9.2, and Kilicli at 11.3 (he had a huge game against marshall) provide a lot of balance. But they don’t have a star or a go-to guy.

The ‘neers are just plain awful from 3-point range. They are making just 23% from deep (VT is at 40%) and no one has more than six made 3-pointers for them after 6 games. They average 3.3 makes per game, while their opponents make more than seven.

wvu got throttled at gonzaga (losing by 34 although the game was played at 2 a.m. EST), lost to davidson, and lost to oklahoma. But if you look at their numbers, they are in the top 100 in the nation in adjusted offense (points per possession) and adjusted defense. How? Feasting on weak competition – they beat marist by 43 and vmi by 25 (Tech beat vmi by 15). They also just beat marshall by 10.

So what do the ‘neers do well? They average 17 offensive rebounds per game while giving up just 11. They grab 41% of their misses (insanely high) while their opponents get just 30%. The key is not missing – the ‘neers’ opponents do shoot for a higher percentage from the floor and 3-point range than them. The Hokies also have to limit their second chance opportunities and points (VT had a 35-13 margin in second chance points against iowa and okie state combined).

wvu also turns the ball over just 12 times per game while they force 16 per game, so protecting the ball will be key, although Tech has turned the ball over more than their opponent in three of their seven wins. Just keeping it close should be fine.

wvu must win in second chance points and turnover margin to have any chance in this game to compensate for their lack of 3-point shooting.

Spread: oklahoma state by 2.

Who’d have thunk it.  Who’d have thought before this season that if Tech beats the oklahoma state cowpokes for the fourth time in three seasons, they just might be ranked come Monday.  But that’s likely the case as the re-loaded osu team comes to Blacksburg for the first time ever.

We all remember Le’Bryan Nash for oklahoma state.  He was the cowboys’ top 10 recruit last year that went head to head with Doo-Doo Finney-Smith, with Doo-Doo getting the upper hand.  Well, Nash is still there, and he’s been joined by Marcus Smart, a top 10 recruit this past year from Marcus HS in Dallas, TX.

Photo by Rachel Franks – Virginia Tech forward drives against Iowa defenders during the Hokies’ 75-79 win over the Hawkeyes.

Nash is turning into the star you’d expect – 19.2 ppg and 6.4 rebounds.  But check out Smart’s stat stuffers – 13.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg (this is a guard!), 5.8 apg, 2.4 steals, 1.4 blocks.  That’s nuts, and from a freshman.  He had 20 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 blocks, and 4 steals in their 20 point win over then #6 nc state.  Yeah, he can play.  Brown will need to bring his A game on defense Saturday.  Eddie will likely draw Nash.

And remember Keiton Page, their 3-point bomber?  He’s gone, but they now have Phil Forte, a Page clone.  You will swear that’s Page on the court when you see him just with a different name on his back.  Forte loves to bomb treys and he’s quite good (50%).  Forte helped Smart lead Marcus HS to the Texas State title last year.

The cowboys beat akron (in OT), tennessee and nc state on their way to the Puerto Rico title.

osu is NOT a deep team.  They really only play two off their bench significant minutes since losing Jean-Paul Olukemi for the second straight season to injury (he got hurt against VT last year).

The cowpokes are a very solid defensive team thanks to their abundance of great athletes (except Jurick and Forte).  They allow less than 90 points per 100 possessions (100-to-100 is average).  So they are insanely good there.  They allow less than 60 ppg, but iowa had a similarly low average and we saw what VT did to them.  We’ll see though, this is a more athletic club.

So let’s pack the Cassell and try and propel the Hokies into the rankings!  Let’s go for a perfect Golden Sombrero (4-0) against the cowpokes!

Final thought: how odd is it to play an OOO team 4 times in 3 seasons?  Over the same stretch, VT have only played ACC foes unc and nc state twice!

Spread: VT by 3.

The bad news is VT is just 2-5 all time in the ACC/Big(12)Ten Challenge.  The good news is both wins came against iowa.  The Hokies will look for the hat trick Tuesday night in the Cassell.

Tech has gotten off to a great start at 5-0, but they really haven’t been tested.  That changes over the next two weeks as VT plays iowa and oklahoma state at home, then at wvu.  This will show us whether we really are solid, or if we’ve just been feasting on weaker competition and still can’t win a big out of conference game.  Having Tuesday at home will surely help.

Both teams have similar tempo-free numbers.  They average approximately 105.5 points per 100 possessions, a very good average, and hold opponents to less than a point per possession (iowa is 50th best in the nation in this stat).

The hawkeyes have mostly played cupcakes, too, except they did play wichita state in the Cancun Challenge title game and lost by 12 (the shockers were a #5 seed in the Big Dance last year and are undefeated this season).

iowa will really challenge the Hokies with their length.  Of iowa’s top eight players, all but one are 6’5″ or taller.  The Hokies must all get after the defensive glass to help reduce second chance opportunities for the hawkeyes.  iowa averages 14 offensive rebounds per game led by White, Basabe, and 7’1″ Woodbury.  Tech, meanwhile, averages less than 8 offensive rebounds per game.  They’ve been outrebounded on the offensive glass 61-39 by their opponents.  Plain and simple, rebounding could decide this game.

Spread: VT by 20.5.

Happy Hokie Day, y’all! Please note we will likely not have video highlights for this game, and +/- will be a few days late as we all take time to spend with our families this Thanksgiving Weekend. If you want, you can call me and I’ll yell, “BRRRRRRRAHHHHH” every time the Hokies dunk the ball.

On Friday, head to the Cassell for an appetizer before you watch the Hokies pound the hoos on Saturday. I don’t think XM advertising will prove to be Nostradamus*.

Tech takes on the mountaineers!!!… of appy state. appalachian state comes in 0-3 against Division 1 teams with losses to in-state high point, ecu, and campbell. They were outscored 89-72 in those games against those power programs.

Jay Canty, a 6’6″ transfer from xavier, is the mountaineers’ best player. This is a young team, at least in their starting lineup, and aren’t ready for ACC competition. So, I’m predicting a big Hokie blowout (maybe even a Bear Fight?) before the Tech schedule gets challenging with iowa, oklahoma state, and @wvu coming up next.

Jarell Eddie and Erick Green are coming off career highs of 28 and 26 respectively on Monday at unc-g.

*In the first VT football program of this season, XM had a full page ad talking about following your favorite team, VT, on XM radio. In the ad there was a picture of an XM receiver screen with the VT-uva game on it. The screen showed: VT 14, uva 54 – 3rd quarter. I hope that ad person got fired. They only have 55 points combined in their last 7 meetings with the Hokies.

Spread: VT by 6.

The Hokies hit the road for the first time under Coach James Johnson to take on the spartans of unc-g-spot in the Greensboro Coliseum, home of the 2013 ACC Tournament.  And much like a the noon Thursday game of the ACC Tournament, this game will likely only have a smattering of a few thousand people.  It is a common practice of ACC teams to play at unc-g every few years to prep for the ACC Tournament (getting used to the shooting background, etc.).

This game will mark the 8th time the two schools have met, with Tech a perfect 7-0 against the spartan spirit.  And this will mark the 5th time the two schools have played in the last 7 years, with three of those games at the Coliseum for the aforementioned reason.

Tech beat the unc-g at the Coliseum two years ago 92-70.  The spartans started out that season 0-15 on their way to a 7-24 season.  They were 13-19 last year.  This year, unc-g lost at high point, beat winston-salem (not wake) at home, and lost at ecu.

As you’d expect, the spartans don’t have much size inside (only one starter over 6’6″).  And like vmi, they like to push the ball and play up-tempo.  They don’t shoot nearly as many 3s as vmi, though.  Parker is a solid PG with a better than 3-to-1 assist to turnover ratio (that’s outstanding).

On Thursday night the mini-keydets head to the Cassell to take on the Hokies.  The two military schools (of sorts) do battle for the 130th time.  Tech, as you’d expect, holds a significant home court advantage – 51-10 all time vs vmi at home, though many of those were played no doubt in War Memorial.

vmi is straight up a run and gun team and have been for several years.  In a way, they have to be in order to stay competitive.  Their starting lineup and first three off the bench consist of just one player taller than 6’6″.  And they have four guys under 6′ on their roster.  Needless to say, they like to push it and shoot a lot of 3-pointers (they are averaging almost 33 three-point attempts per game).

On defense, the keydets will gamble as most run-and-gun teams do.  The object is to keep the tempo up.  Plus, with their lack of size, they can’t afford to defend in the half court.  So the Hokies will likely get a lot of very easy opportunities if they make smart passes and get out with numbers.  They also can feed Raines in half court sets and let him do his magic.  If they double him in the post, which they most certainly will do, Cadarian has shown he can pass very well this season and if players cut off the ball they can get easy looks (something they weren’t doing last year).

Technically the keydets are 1-2 on the season, but do you really count a win over central pennsylvania college?  I don’t even know where that is.   Their two losses sting quite a bit – to fellow military institutions – the citadel and army.  And they’ve averaged just 75 ppg in those two losses, well below what you expect from them (they did score well over 100 against cpc).

Meanwhile, the Hokies have been pretty efficient on offense so far this year and, I won’t go so far to say they’ve been great on defense, they have played well and opponents have shot just 36% from the field and 11% from behind the arc (4/37).  If the keydets cannot shoot a high percentage from deep, they will get run of the Cassell.  This should be a good chance to see how the Hokies do in a true up-tempo game.

An old thorn in the Hokies’ side comes to the Cassell on Monday.  The rhodey rams, who are 3-1 all time at the Cassell, including knocking VT out of the NIT Quarterfinals three years ago, head to Blacksburg.  But this is a team that went 7-24 last season, including an 11-point loss at home to the Hokies.

While the Hokies rolled to an 18-point win in JJ’s debut vs etsu, the rams dropped their opener at home to norfolk state (the same spartans that beat #2 seed missouri in the NCAA Tournament so don’t read too much into that).

Tech will have to slow Nikola Malesevic, who exploded for 26 points against norfolk state and had 23 against the Hokies last year.  Meanwhile, xavier munford was 3/19 from the field for the rams including 2/10 from behind the arc.  VT should go ahead and let him shoot as much as he wants.  rhodey shot just 28% for the game, but did snag 15 offensive rebounds so Tech will need to do a better job on the glass.  The rams like to gamble on defense so the Hokies can have success pushing the ball and making the extra pass, or faking and either cutting or taking the ball yourself.

Green had 24 points off the bench in that game in Kingston last year, Eddie added 15, and Raines 12.

Tired of Hokie football?  Yeah, me too (I better set a reminder to update this line in case we beat fsu on Thursday).  Well Hokie hoops is back this Saturday!  And there’s a new sheriff in town – Coach James Johnson.  Look for a brand new, up-tempo style!  Wait, stop laughing, I really mean it – we are going to play up-tempo, this isn’t another SG token statement!

Niemo’s Nugget: 3 of etsu’s players that averaged double digit points last year are gone, and they have no returning post players that saw significant minutes

Anyway, the bucs come to the Cassell on Saturday.  Here’s the tale of the tape (* Returning players only):

Spread: duke by 8.5

Doe Doe: Everyone has been talking about how good Cadarian Raines has been the last 3 weeks, and rightfully so (averaging just under 12 PPG over the last 6 games), but Dorian Finney-Smith has quietly turned things around, too.  Look at the tale of his three seasons, so to speak.

Dorian is also 11/28 from behind the arc in those last 10 games, a 39% clip (remember when he missed 25 straight shots at one point, from inside and outside the arc?).  So congrats to him on finding his stroke again.  The disappointment has been his foul shooting, he’s 6/17 in his last 4 games and hasn’t made both in a 2-shot situation in 8 opportunities.  But all in all, he’s at least gotten back to the player he was early in the season.

Random: At one point on Thursday I gave Doe Doe a new nickname — Bambi — for how timid he is on the drive.  Then he showed me up by getting two nice drive-and-finishes.

VT vs duke:

duke will not have Ryan Kelly on Friday night (so you’re sayin’ there’s a chance)… but VT had just 7 scholarship players on Thursday, forcing 5 guys to play 30+ minutes.  There is some good news on Rankin, though, there’s a solid chance he’ll play Friday.

First Meeting – 2/2 at VT – #5 duke 75, VT 60

• HIGHLIGHTS
• RECAP
• PREVIEW

Second Meeting – 2/25 at duke – #5 duke 70, VT 65 (OT)

• RECAP
• PREVIEW
• Tech stayed in this game thanks to fantastic defense (duke was getting no transition opportunities which keep the score down) and great days from Raines, Green, and Hudson – 16 points each
• Green and Raines had shots at the end of regulation to win it for VT
• Rivers was too much off the dribble for Tech (and the refs treated him like Lebron — he had 17 FTAs leading to 23 points… Curry added 19)
• Ryan Kelly had 8 in this game (He’s out)
• VT was called for 25 fouls while duke just 13 (typical)

The Hokies stayed in that game at duke, and had a chance to win it, because of their transition defense.  They made this it a half court game, and with Raines dominating inside, Green in the midrange, and Zo outside, VT had a chance to win.  But with Tech likely tired after everyone playing so many minutes Thursday night, will the 7 or 8 scholarship guys have enough in the tank and their legs to slow down duke again?

Spread: clemson by 3.5 (Spread has moved a point up from 2.5 — people are betting on clemson!)

For the second Thursday in a row the Hokies and c-l-e-m-s-ohhhhh-n will do battle, but this time with survival at stake.  If the Hokies lose, their season is over in all likelihood.  It is not believed that Tech will accept a bid to a tournament lower than the NIT, and VT would likely have to win 3 games in the Dirty, Dirty to have any shot at the NIT for a 5th year in a row.  The Hokies come in at 15-16 overall, so they must win at least 2 games to avoid finishing with a losing record.

But enough about anything other than Thursday.  The Hokies come into this game struggling, having lost 4 in a row, while the tigers have won 5 of 7, including that meeting last Thursday at clemson.  If the Hokies play like they did Sunday against nc state, you can go ahead and make a tee time for Friday, Tech will be done for the season.

These two teams are evenly matched.  In fact, each team won by exactly two points at home this year.  And in both games the road team had a chance to tie the game at the free throw line with a couple of seconds left, and in both cases, missed both.

Note: Erick Green was named to the All-ACC Second Team and Dorian Finney-Smith was selected to the All Freshman Team for the ACC.

HISTORY IN THE ACC TOURNAMENT:

• Overall Record: 5-7
• Record in the First Round: 2-1 (beat georgia tech last year)
• First Meeting between VT and clemson in the ACC Tournament

SEASON SERIES VS clemson:

Feb. 4 at Virginia Tech – VT 67-65

• Recap
• Highlights

Mar. 1 at clemson – clemson 58-56

• Recap

Tech jumped out to big leads in both games.  In Blacksburg, VT led by as many as 17 in the 1st half and took a 42-28 lead to the break.  The Hokies led by 14 with 5:30 to go, but took a knee the rest of the game and needed K.J. McDaniels (14 points and 6 dunks) to miss 2 free throws with 3 seconds left, and Tanner Smith to miss a wide open 15-footer at the buzzer from the corner to secure the win.  The tigers snagged 22 offensive rebounds but where just 2/17 on 3-pointers.

At clemson, the Hokies jumped ahead 16-6 but went scoreless for more than 6-1/2 minutes and trailed at the break 33-31.  The tigers threatened to pull away in the 2nd half, leading by as many as 8, but VT tied it with 3 minutes to go.  Neither team scored in the final 2:45 and 2 missed free throws by Cadarian Raines that could have tied the game with 5 seconds left sent the Hokies to defeat (although Raines was the VT player of the game with 12 points and 8 rebounds).  clemson outscored VT on the fastbreak 13-0, but went 0/10 from behind the arc.

Jarell Eddie scored exactly 15 points in both meetings and is 5/12 from deep against the tigers.

clemson is 2/27 from 3-point range against VT this year.

SERIES:

• Overall: VT 13-12
• Overall in ACC Play: clemson 7-5

STARTERS:

STATS:

Note: these stats are for ACC games ONLY.

Let’s win the season series!  Let’s take the rubber match!

Spread: VT by 1.5 – VT hasn’t covered in a game they’ve been favored in during 2012.

Every year it is both a thrilling and sad day. A day of rejoice, and a day of remembrance. Sunday might be our final glimpse at Hokies 2G*, as redshirt senior Dorenzo Hudson plays his final game at the Cassell. Senior Victor Davila will also be in the Cassell for the final time, but it remains to be seen if he can even play. He’s missed 5 straight games with a groin injury. Senior walk-on Joey Racer, who has scored 2 points in 5 games this year, will also dress for the final time in the Cassell.

Here’s some factoids on the seniors:

• 79-24: Tech’s record in games Zo’s played in.
• 192: Combined starts by Davila (102) and Hudson (90).
• 1890: Combined points by Zo (1170) and Davila (720).
• 32nd: Hudson’s rank on the VT career scoring list.
• 49-19: Tech’s record at the Cassell in games Hudson has played in. Victor has also been a part of 49 home wins. Let’s get 50!

*Hokies 2G (Coach Greenberg’s 2nd Generation of players) was comprised of the 2007 VT Recruiting Class, which included Zo, Malcolm Delaney, Jeff Allen, Terrell Bell, JT Thompson, and Hank Thorns — it is possible JT will keep 2G in play next year if he decides to return for a 6th season.

For the Hokies, they still have something to play for. While they aren’t fighting for a NCAA Tournament bid this year on Senior Night, they are playing for a few things:

• NIT: Tech must win to stay over .500 and have any shot at an NIT bid.
• 3-4: Tech is 3-4 in ACC games at the Cassell this year. They have had just one losing ACC home campaign in 7 previous seasons (2005-06 — 2-6).
• Tech would avoid tying their worst ACC finish with a win (they were 4-12 in 05-06).
• 50 career home wins for VD and Zo with a win.

Also, Tech’s ACC Tournament seed is on the line: Note: bc got waxed at miami and ga tech pulled away from wake late, so wake, gt, and bc are 4-12 in the clubhouse

• #9: If the Hokies win Sunday, they are the #9 seed and play the #8, maryland, at noon on Thursday.
• #10: If VT loses to state, they’ll be the #10 seed and play the #7 seed (could be miami, uva, or clemson). wake would be the #9, gt #11, and bc #12.

nc state: The pack-backers are trying to forget the last 5 years under Sidney Lowe, their ricky stokes. They won just 25 regular season ACC games in that time, never more than 6 in a season. Mark Gottfried has already led them to 2 more win they they ever had under Lowe (8), and can lock up their first winning season since they ran Sendek out of town.

state started out 7-3 in ACC play and led at duke by 20. But then the pack reverted back to their Lowe ways, blowing that lead, the game, and losing 4 in a row to drop to 7-7 in the ACC. But they swept miami, winning on Leap Day over the canes, and find themselves in a 4-way tie with uva, miami, and clemson. To get the #4 seed and a bye in the ACC Tourney, state would need to beat VT, and have uva and clemson lose. uva needs to win and not finish in a 2-way tie with clemson.

Things are looking up for state, though. They are bringing in perhaps the top recruiting class in the nation for next year. Gottfried does have a history of shadiness, though (where there’s smoke…???).

SERIES:

• Overall: state 34-14
• At VT: state 10-7
• At VT in ACC Play: VT 3-2 (VT 2 in a row)
• Overall in ACC Play: state 6-5
• Last Meeting (2/2/11): VT 77, @ nc state 69

STARTERS:

*I’m listing Davila as the starter since it is Senior Day. Finney-Smith will start in his place if he can’t go.

^ Painter is a cousin of VT’s offensive lineman, Vinston Painter

state will only go about 2-deep on their bench. They have no depth and they get just 11 bench points per game. But they are extremely balanced in their starting lineup – all 5 starters average in double figures.

• Scott Wood has the muscles of a pencil. He loves to shoot the 3 and hasn’t added the drive like Ryan Kelly has for duke. Wood hits 42% of his 3s (78 makes), both of which are #1 or tied for #1 in the ACC. Wood made 66 consecutive FTs this season, an ACC record (he’s 92% for the year).
• C.J. Leslie is their most athletic and most talented player.
• Howell is #4 in the ACC in rebounds per game (9.2)

STATS:

Note: these stats are for ACC games ONLY.

BORING FACTS ABOUT nc state:

• Founded: 1887
• Enrollment: 23.7 undergrad, 7.4 postgrad
• National Titles (Basketball): 1974 and 1983
• ACC Titles (Basketball): 10 – last was in 1987 – 3rd most in the ACC
• ACC Football Titles: 7 (tied for 4th most) – none since 1979 – in fact, the two state schools (unc and nc state) haven’t won an ACC football title, or even tied for one, since 1980. There’s no pigskin on Tobacco Road.

Spread: clemson by 5.5 (the Hokies have covered in the last 3 games they were ‘dogs in)

March Madness is here again!  I’ve got good news/bad news for all you Hokie hoops fans.  What do you want first?  I heard HipHop say ‘good news’ so let’s start with that (Chuck only wants to hear the bad news… kidding!):

• Good news: You don’t have to sweat out another Selection Sunday this year!
• Bad news: …because Virginia Tech isn’t going to the Big Dance and unless they start winning some games, won’t even be in the NIT and might be relegated to the CBI or some other made up tournament.  Technically you don’t have to have a .500 record to make it, but in reality VT will have to be at least .500 to get in, and even then they might not.

On Thursday night Virginia Tech heads to clemson for their final regular season road game.  Tech is 2-3 at Littlejohn since joining the ACC, alternating losses then wins (they are due to win this game since clemson won at clemson last year in the regular season finale, effectively knocking the Hokies out of the NCAA Tournament).  But winning in Littlejohn will be a challenge — the tigers are 5-2 at home in ACC play this season.

Tech beat clemson a month ago, jumping out to a 17-point first half lead (that’s how you debate!) and going into halftime up 42-28.  So we must have reached 70 points, right?  Nope.  Tech took a knee the final 6 minutes, and despite having a 14-point lead with 5:30 to go, clemson had two opportunities to tie the game at the end.  K.J. McDaniels missed two free throws with 3 seconds left, but Tanner Smith grabbed the offensive rebound and missed a 14-foot jumper at the buzzer, and the Hokies won 67-65. Eddie had 15, Doe Doe 12, and Green 10 for Tech.  For the tigers, Young had 14, McDaniels had 14 (almost all on dunks — he had 6 dunks), Booker 11, and Smith 10.

Since that point, clemson has gone 4-2, winning 4 of their last 5.  They beat uva by 12 at home.  Tech has been very mercurial since that clemson game, playing up to their better competition (narrow losses to fsu, uva, and duke where VT led in the 2nd half in all three), while playing down to the level of the poorer teams (should have lost to bc at home and needed a 3 at the buzzer to beat georgia tech who didn’t have their best player).  Which Hokie team will show up Thursday?  The Hokies are just 1-6 on the road in league action this year, but since clemson is playing well right now, I assume that means the Hokies will rise to the challenge and play well.

SERIES:

• Overall: VT 13-11
• At clemson: clemson 6-5
• At clemson in ACC Play: clemson 3-2
• Overall in ACC Play: clemson 6-5
• Last Meeting: VT 67 clemson 65 RECAP  |  HIGHLIGHTS

STARTERS:

*6’9″ Milton Jennings was suspended for academic reasons for the last meeting, but is back and starting now.

STATS:

Note: these stats are for ACC games ONLY.

Tech was #1 in FT% two weeks ago, now they are smack dab in the middle.  As for the rest of the stats, you can see that these are two pretty evenly matched teams on paper.  clemson gives up a high FG%, but they get a lot of steals to balance that out.  Hence, they don’t give up many points.

Let’s give the tigers some more payback for daring to steal our ACC Football Championship!

Spread: duke by 12.

The Hokies get the blue devils at a good time. Well, sort of. The blue devils must play at florida state just 40 hours before the Hokies and nerds meet in Cameron Indoor Stadium. That game with the noles is huge for duke. This game is sandwiched between duke’s win at fsu then the devils have to play unc next week. So there’s a chance duke could be looking past this game, and they certainly won’t have much time to prepare… but we also know how good VT is in Short Turnaround games (8-1 all time, 2-0 this year), and duke is a heck of a lot better.

Reality is the two teams have already played and despite a solid start from the Hokies at home (the game was tied at 21), duke blew Tech out of their own arena, jumping to a 10-point halftime lead and getting up by as many as 23 in the 2nd half before settling for a 75-60 win.

First Meeting:

• RECAP (duke 75, @VT 60)
• HIGHLIGHTS

Ryan Kelly had 7 points while duke went on an 13-2 run to turn a 21-21 tie with 7 minutes to go in the first half into a 34-23 blue devil lead. His ability to shoot the ball outside, coupled with his shot-fake and ability to drive and score in the paint, was too much for VT. He finished with 15 points.

Austin Rivers had 18 points, 5 assists, and 5 rebounds. He’s shooting the ball much better from deep of late and we already knew he could kill you off the dribble.

Seth Curry added 11 after being shut out in the House Dell Built last year, but Curry was just 2/7 on FGs. He has been playing much better of late (see below). Mason Plumlee added 10 points, 8 in the first half.

Tech was -6 on turnovers in the first meeting (7-13), and duke was +5 on 3-pointers made (8-3). Green had 17 for the Hokies (the more he scores, the more VT loses) and tied a career high with 7 rebounds. Davila tied his career high with 16 points, but he’s missed VT’s last 3 games and could be out Saturday.

THE SERIES:

vs duke:

• All Time: duke 38-8
• At duke: duke 17-1
• In ACC Play: duke 9-3
• At duke in ACC Play: duke 4-1

STARTERS:

A lot of the duke’s starters averages have been dropping except for Rivers (29 points against unc, including the game winning 3-pointer) and Curry (20 ppg over the last 5 games).

STATS:

Note: these stats are for ACC games ONLY.

NERDS!

Spread: uva by 2.5

The Hokies look to give uva a taste of their own medicine on Tuesday night in the Cassell and sweep the hoos in the rematch of their January 22nd contest that VT won 47-45 at uva. Last year uva swept the Hokies, helping knock Tech off the NCAA Tournament bubble.  While uva appears to be a lock for this year’s Dance, sitting at #41 in the RPI, VT could at least make them sweat it out a bit.  The good news for VT is the winner of the first match-up has swept the season series in 3 of the last 4 years and 4 of the last 6.

Tuesday night will be Mike Scott’s 5th and final appearance in the Cassell (we think).  Actually, the first time Scott played at VT, I think the Hokies were still playing in War Memorial Gym.  Mike has done very well in the past in the Cassell, but VT limited him to just 10 points in the first meeting, 7 points below his average. In Scott’s last two trips to Cassell, he’s totaled 41 points and 26 rebounds.  He has 110 points and 58 rebounds for his career against the Hokies.  Ouch.

Scott is a lock to be 1st Team All-ACC, if not the player of the year.  He’s 3rd in the league in PPG (17.2), 6th in rebounds (8.2), #1 in FG% (59%)*, and even #9 in FT% (82%). [*My fiance would tell you he shoots a higher percentage from the field than I do at the toilet.]

Davila is Tech’s best post defender and he was a big reason Scott only scored 10 points in the first meeting.  If Victor is out, will the Hokies be able to defend Scott inside?  We could see the 2-3 zone again.  Foul trouble would be a major risk for Barksdale and Raines, but the zone would help mitigate that.  And the zone would also help uva get decent looks from the outside.  This will be the key match-up if VD can’t go.

It will also be Dorenzo Hudson’s 5th game against uva in the Cassell.  He had 15 points two years ago in VT’s 61-55 win.

In the first meeting back in January, Zo scored 6 of the team’s final 8 points, including a clutch hook to put VT up 3, 44-41, and then the game-clinching 3-pointer to make the margin 47-43 with 17 seconds left to cement the win.  Late in that game, Coach Greenberg had Hudson post up on uva’s smaller guards down low, allowing Hudson to shoot over the cavalier defender.  It worked twice down the stretch.  Hudson had 12 total points for the game.

FIRST MEETING (1/22/12 @ uva):

• RECAP - Green led VT with 15, including 12 in the 2nd half, but it was Zo Hudson’s clutch 3-pointer with 17 seconds left that clinched the game for the good guys.  uva had 22 FTAs to just 7 for VT (and most of those were at the end) and had 13 offensive rebounds to just 4 by VT.  But uva was just 1/14 from deep, while VT hit 5/13, and as you all know, that stat decides the winner.  It was the lowest point total for VT in a win over uva since 1942.
• HIGHLIGHTS
• Me looking like an idiot because I guaranteed a win at bc and lost my bet

THE SERIES:

• All Time: uva 81-53
• At VT: VT 27-17 (VT is 14-3 vs uva at the Cassell)
• In ACC Play: tied 8-8
• At VT in ACC Play: VT 5-2 (Tech had won 4 straight in the Cassell before last year)

STARTERS:

• # Davila has missed Tech’s last 2 games with a groin injury and is questionable for the uva game.
• ^Joe Harris, uva’s 2nd leading scorer, broke his left, non-shooting hand, 3 games ago.  He has averaged just 5.3 ppg since suffering the injury.  He hasn’t reached double digits in those 3 games after surpassing the 10-point mark in 18 of the 21 games before the injury.
• *uva has been without 7’0″ senior center Assane Sene (4.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg) since he rolled his ankle against ga tech in mid-January. Akil Mitchell (6’8?, Sophomore, 4.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) has started in his place.
• uva does not have much depth due to transfers so this could be a big issue for them.  They are down to 8 scholarship players of note that see minutes.

HOT HOKIES:

• Dorian Finney-Smith has hit 18 of his last 35 shots (51%) since ending his 0/25 stretch.
• Marquis Rankin has hit 5/11 3-pointers after starting the season just 2/9.
• Jarell Eddie has made at least 2 three-pointers in 9 of 13 games, including 4 of the last 5.
• Tech has just 12 total turnovers in their last two games while their opponents have committed 29.  VT also has a 16-4 advantage in steals in those 2 games.

uva COLD: Senior Sammy Zeglinski has averaged just 5.2 ppg over his last 6 games, well below his now 8.1 ppg average.  He scored just 5 in the first meeting.

uva HOT: Junior PG Jontel Evans, who is a horrible shooter for a point guard, has averaged 9.8 ppg over his last 4 games, pulling up his scoring average to 6.8.  He had 10 in VT’s win at uva.  Evans is a very talented ball-handler that can penetrate and get to the tin.  He has not attempted a 3-pointer in uva’s last 6 games (play off him).

STATS:

Note: these stats are for ACC games ONLY.

Interesting that uva is #1 in defensive rebounding, but 2nd-to-last in offensive.  I attribute that to them dropping back on defense, since that’s their bread and butter, and not sending a lot of guys to the offensive glass.

The Hokies must do a good job on Scott again to win, but they must improve on defensive rebounding, turnovers, and free throw attempts.  uva dominated all 3 stats in the first meeting (well, they didn’t dominate TOs but VT had 13, which is way too many).  Tech cannot expect uva to shoot 1/14 from deep again, which is the main reason the Hokies won.